Like Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman appears to be having second thoughts about building a commercial space facility.
[Afternoon update]
Well, if this is true, it confirms that Blue Origin has abandoned Orbital Reef. That was Brent Sherwood’s baby (he’d been thinking about commercial space facilities for decades, since he was at Boeing), so his departure tells the tale.
I blame rising interest rates and a glut of available commercial multi-story real estate in most major American cities. <– that's sarcasm.
It appears that the elevator to the top floor just doesn't go as high as we'd hoped. I'd have serious reservations as a Nor'crafter, tying my ambitions to be an Uber to the whims of Airbus (ESA?).
As I’ve said before, I expect Axiom, built on the ISS model by ISS contractors, and run by former ISS management to succeed. SpaceX/Vast have the only possibly viable alternative.
As I’ve also noted before, in the context that Axiom already has dibs on some parts of ISS (the storage module and the Japanese Exposed Facility, along with an Italian transfer module in storage on the ground). Much of ISS is a lot younger that USOS Phase I and ROS. Move Node 3 with Cupola and Bishop up to Node 2 (with JEM and Columbus) and detach all that. Then ROS and USOS Phase I (Node I, the US Lab, and the Truss) goes in the drink/
Or, discard ROS, replace it with PMM + Double Halo, do a refurb on USOS Phase I and Truss, and with Axiom that makes a 16 – 20 permanent crew base that lasts until 2050.
“As I’ve said before, I expect Axiom, built on the ISS model by ISS contractors, and run by former ISS management to succeed.”
That sounds very much like a bunch of people who have great experience at cost-plus contracts but not very much experience where their own money is on the line, which is more of a fixed-price way of doing things.
Ahhh, you found the secret of their future success.
And yet, somehow, the Axiom plan for raising money by flying billionaires to ISS transmuted to selling seats to astronauts from NASA-approved dictatorships (UAE, Saudi), then to spare ESA crew (Sweden, Poland, Hungary, etc.). Tell me again about the “inexperience.” Saudi money is greener than most. Axiom is the ISS deep state replacing ISS. I better shut up or the same little birdie will fly squawking again…
They do score high on the Tweed Corruption Index as well.
Just how much would you risk on; “If you build it, we will come.”?
I once calculated that each research paper on the ISS cost $700k. It is the Starship fleet that will open up the future for settlement not CLDs. Rather, the CLDs will likely be a permanent budgetary drain on NASA thereby preventing the extent to which it can purchase Starship missions.
I wonder what they’ll call the consortium that will own SpaceX after Musk doesn’t commit suicide in prison. I was going to make a joke about a name, but I’m too afraid…
How many of these partnerships are capture and kill operations?
It must be alluring to be offered to partner with these prestigious government contractors but it looks to be a death sentence beyond whatever short term money the senior partners can drain from the endeavor.
Bailing on LEO stations is just one more index of terminal illness on the part of legacy aerospace firms – among which I number Blue Origin under the Smith regime. Like almost everything else space-related from here on out, LEO stations will prove to be the province of the NewSpace private sector.