ULA is apparently on the auction block.
I’ve been arguing for years that Boeing and Lockmart should be forced to divest, because a free-range ULA would be much more able to compete with SpaceX (and other potential competitors).
I’m guessing that Boeing has decided that it needs cash more than it needs to continue to keep Tory under control.
What if the buyer be Bezos?
Depends entirely upon what he would do with ULA. Merge it with Blue Origin, hand it some non-trivial cash and put Tory in charge of the whole shootin’ match and you get something that might find a way to stay alive after 2029. Merge it with Blue Origin and leave Bob Smith in charge of the whole shootin’ match and, with or without a new handful of cash, you get controlled flight into terrain.
This is wonderfully good news. There was a definite conflict of interest between ULA and its parents. ULA was not allowed to propose its XEUS / ACES lander for the HLA contract. I spoke with a leading engineer there who confirmed that it was both one of not both parents that prevented ULA from competing for that billion dollar contract.
Blue would be the logical buyer. It would give them the instant ability to develop a full-scale hydrolox lunar lander. Sine the round trip travel time to the Moon is 70X less that of Mars, lunar water ice could be used to refuel the lander, and more passengers could be packed into a lunar than a Martian trip, the Blue Turtle could prove fairly tales true and take the lead when it comes to off-Earth settlement.
Blue is a logical buyer, but no more so than some of the others spitballed by Berger. Leadership of the combined entity would matter more than anything else. It’s far from a cinch bet that Tory would be tapped to take over from Bob Smith. Failing a change of CEOs, I wouldn’t expect any big changes or results. Even LockMart or L3 Harris would likely contrive to make more of an acquired ULA than Blue would as I see both as far likelier than Blue to keep Tory in charge.
Could be it is for sale because it has no future. SpaceX is eating their lunch and will continue to do so. Who will be dumb enough to buy it?
SpaceX is eating their lunch today. Is is however possible for a new (or reformed) entrant to create a better launch platform for non-Starlink launches. The talent is there as is the financial capability. The drive and will to make it happen is the key.
Falcon is an unbeatable launcher today. Starship is unproven and unlikely to be as nimble as fans expect.. A competitor might go with methane engines that are not bleeding edge, Compensating nozzles to give the first stage the performance to more than match Falcon. Design with the Falcon heritage knowledge that allows fast turnarounds. And possibly some upper stage tricks not currently in play. The P51 Mustang was the best fighter in the world….for less than a year.
ULA has no future beyond 2029 in its present condition. Cleft from its two vampire parents, it might.
“Falcon is an unbeatable launcher today. Starship is unproven and unlikely to be as nimble as fans expect.. A competitor might go with methane engines that are not bleeding edge, Compensating nozzles to give the first stage the performance to more than match Falcon. Design with the Falcon heritage knowledge that allows fast turnarounds. And possibly some upper stage tricks not currently in play.”
Yeah. Maybe by 2035.
” The P51 Mustang was the best fighter in the world….for less than a year.”
There are good arguments that the P-47 was better. Funny how the Taiwanese, after 1949 ditched the mixed fleet of fighters they inherited and replaced all of them, including the P-51’s, with P-47’s
which proceeded to do a magnificent job. I wish someone would write a book about that effort.
Your 2035 estimate is based on current rate of progress by the majors that are not SpaceX. Another entrant with the drive and determination could beat that considerably. 12 years in the other direction, SpaceX was four years from first booster landing.
Won’t argue the P-51 vs P-47 for various roles. P-51 was the glamour boy that everyone has heard of. I’ve wondered what would have happened if inflight refueling had been developed before WW2. Possibly the more rugged P-47 would have had the Berlin and back glamour.