For its part, Webb suffered repeated delays and cost overruns even before the COVID-19 pandemic slowed work on a number of projects in both the public and private sectors. Initially meant to launch in 2010 at a cost of $3 billion, Webb eventually launched last December at a final cost of more than $10 billion. Similarly, the enormous Space Launch System rocket has cost more and taken far longer to lift off from Kennedy Space Center than originally planned – though NASA now expects to finally launch the rocket that will take astronauts back to the Moon at the end of August or beginning of September.
All the same, criticisms focused on excessive delays and busted budgets tend to fall by the wayside when we see the results of America’s space exploration programs. That’s certainly been the case with Webb, whose first images have received a rapturous reception by the media and public alike. But few people would say that this sense of wonder and inspiration is the reason America invests as much of its national resources as it does in space exploration, and even fewer would say it’s worth the financial costs involved.
One of these things is not like the others. I’m confident that history will record that SLS/Orion played a trivial, if not non-existent role in actual space exploration. And (as always) I would reiterate that out exploration of space will be much more effective when it is rightly viewed as not an end, but a means to a grander goal: the development and settlement of a new frontier, and the expansion of life and consciousness into the universe.
I think Juul’s assertion that SLS is “the rocket that will take astronauts back to the Moon” is wishful thinking. Once Starship is fully operational, using a gold-plated government rocket that costs ten to a hundred times as much will be unsustainable. I believe that when astronauts take off for the moon, it will say “SpaceX” on the side of their ship.
I would not put it past the government to double-down on a very, very bad investment (after all, it’s just taxpayer money) and launch a time or two.
But by the time they get around to it, they’ll be landing at Elonopolisburgtonville, and checking into the Trump Milky Way Lunar South Pole for the night.
I think that really depends on who is President next and how willing they are to take credit for the program that is getting headlines when the symbolic thing happens (woman on the Moon, whatever) and how willing they are to just shoulder the cost.
Over the years I’ve wondered who history will record as the owner of this program, and it’s still not clear, but if you’re looking for a name to slap on the side of this giant pile of obsolete garbage, I can think of a brand that will happily take it 😊🇺🇲
Both parties and either one that is in control when next Americans walk on the Moon, regardless of the ride, will take credit. Then the nerd fight will take place.
Someone (Jeff Greason?) on the Augustine Committee (2009) said basically that if we commit to building a huge booster, the first thing we’ll do is shut it down because it’s too expensive. I heard it at the time, but haven’t been able to find it since. Does anyone have the quote and where it took place?
I don’t recall the exact quote, but it was Jeff and Sally Ride, something to the effect of “If Santa Claus gave NASA a giant rocket for Christmas, they wouldn’t have the budget to operate it.”
Isn’t Santa Claus going to give NASA a giant rocket for the Christmas of 2022.
Space Force seems slightly interested in Starship.
But it seems to me, that Starship should be launched from the ocean.
And what is US govt doing regarding this?
It seems all US govt can do is delay things.
China is a horrible example of a government, though some politician are the impression, China is shining city on the hill. But there is no shortage of power sick crazed politicians.
But China wants a Starship and already has ocean launch platform. The US govt has no need to make rockets or ocean platform {my point is not to copy China}
But US govt could do things not cause delay in making ocean launch platforms. Or rather US Govt, I should say all US government, Fed, State, and local.
Now, that US governments could imagine the future, or actually govern, could seem like very high bar.
But could they just try to pretend they are governing?
Ok, probably, impossible.
How starting a new dept. Or make some Space force in responsible. Czars never work, but Bill Gates running it?
Hmm, guess have go back to NASA.
Which seems hopeless.
I guess not, Santa Claus dealing FAA- which delays things forever, is only path.
…when it is rightly viewed as not an end, but a means to a grander goal: the development and settlement of a new frontier, and the expansion of life and consciousness into the universe.
No one is going to take your word for this, Rand. Expecting people to accept this as an article of faith is not realistic. Your personal convictions in this matter count for very little. You’re going to have to make the case that space settlement is a realistic goal, not a space advocate fantasy. This is the book you should have written.
You might view space as a new frontier but most see it as a lifeless hell. Space settlement advocates who forget this are in for a lot of frustration.
Bob Zubrin has written more than one book about this. I can’t imagine that one I write is going to change anything.
“No one is going to take your word for this, Rand.”
If you mean the general public I agree. But both Bezos and Musk would/have echoed those same sentiments and they were no doubt inspired growing up by such sentiments being expressed by such as Gerald O’Neill (Bezos), Robert Heinlein, J.E. Pournelle etc. Most of the public don’t know (or care) who they were; so be it. The right people know the ones who will build the future. Musk is a smart enough entrepreneur that he knows that while the aforementioned is the end goal every step in the process must be profitable. From starlink satellites (current) to approx. one hour point-to-point transfers of 100MT per flight anywhere on earth (Starship/Superheavy) that’s where the money will be made. Of course that is what will generate the means to colonize Moon/Mars/asteroid belt etc. The general public will be largely clueless of the significance of this until it is well underway; that is par for the course. Like it or not that is why there are great men like Rockefeller, Henry Ford, etc.; there ability to see and act on what most people don’t/can’t/won’t see.
But both Bezos and Musk would/have echoed those same sentiments and they were no doubt inspired growing up by such sentiments being expressed by such as Gerald O’Neill (Bezos), Robert Heinlein, J.E. Pournelle etc.
We will see how much success that Musk and Bezos have at settling space. So far I sense that both men view space settlement as a transportation problem and have yet to confront (or even acknowledge in any substantial way) the greater obstacles.
“So far I sense that both men view space settlement as a transportation problem and have yet to confront (or even acknowledge in any substantial way) the greater obstacles.”
I assume you are referring to issues like radiation/zero-gravity etc? I cannot help but wonder how many of those “greater obstacles” would be ameliorated by the ability to move sufficient mass/power into space cheaply? For instance a starship to mars would be pretty bare bones as far as human comfort/safety, but given the ability for reusable rockets to place 100MT in earth orbit per flight just a matter of time before it would be used to assemble a larger better equipped for human safety/comfort vehicle in earth orbit.
I assume you are referring to issues like radiation/zero-gravity etc?
More like the enormous costs of dealing with such issues contrasted with the limited resources available to defray them. To paraphrase Musk in a different context you are proposing moving from a place where the costs of living are low and the means of defraying such costs numerous to a place where the costs of living are enormous and the means of defraying such costs quite limited. Sure, a Starship might be able to lift 100MT to orbit but how are the people in orbit and beyond paying for that 100 MT of stuff and that Starship flight and the refueling flights, etc. Safety and comfort off Earth come at a very high price with relatively little off Earth to barter for it.
“More like the enormous costs of dealing with such issues contrasted with the limited resources available to defray them.”
Well the initial resource would be the economic value of the location itself, i.e. think of a privately established Mars colony (populated with folk who have renounced their terrestrial countries’ citizenship) as the ultimate tax shelter:
“Elon Musk said elsewhere that he thinks that 500K a ticket is the price for being able to send people to Mars privately at a profit. He said that he thinks that there are at least 8000 and probably very many more willing/able to pay. Let assume he is right. How would the colony make money? How about: The Cayman Islands in space?. Mars has one big thing to trade upon, its location beyond all claims of any government as to sovereignty. Meaning it does not have to follow any earth laws. The colony bank of mars (probably a bunch of server/routers/cpu’s in a room) could offer clients tax free interest on deposits (say 5% more for big investors) and total confidentiality. Records not available to any gov agency wanting to know anything about, no legal obligation to do so.”
http://www.transterrestrial.com/2021/07/09/we-demand-a-collectivist-space-program/#comments
And Jim you have a couple of billionaires the two richest men (Bezos & Musk) on earth who claim to want to make humanity a multi-planet species to help initially bankroll said “Bank of Mars”.
Well the initial resource would be the economic value of the location itself, i.e. think of a privately established Mars colony (populated with folk who have renounced their terrestrial countries’ citizenship) as the ultimate tax shelter:
But all that just begs the question; you’re not solving the problems, you’re just assuming that the problems have been solved somehow. How does that “privately established Mars colony” manage to get to the point where they can renounce terrestrial citizenship and become a tax shelter to rival the Cayman Islands?
And Jim you have a couple of billionaires the two richest men (Bezos & Musk) on earth who claim to want to make humanity a multi-planet species to help initially bankroll said “Bank of Mars”.
How do the loans that the Bank of Mars make get paid back?
“How does that “privately established Mars colony” manage to get to the point where they can renounce terrestrial citizenship and become a tax shelter to rival the Cayman Islands?”
Uhh Jim I actually kinda answered that in my post that you reposted:
“And Jim you have a couple of billionaires the two richest men (Bezos & Musk) on earth who claim to want to make humanity a multi-planet species to help initially bankroll said “Bank of Mars”.”
In other words they get to the point by having backers on earth before they leave; a fiduciary arrangement based on their (the mars colonists) business plan. Tax shelters are huge…trillions of dollars and off-planet would be the ultimate tax shelter. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty forbids any nation from claiming soveriegnty over any heavenly body or space. A private colony could declare total independence from earth laws, taxes, etc.; the colonist would renounce their citizenship before they left earth.
“How do the loans that the Bank of Mars make get paid back?”
The money from the investors back on Earth would be electronically transferred to the Mars colony…the “Bank of M” would then re-invest it back on earth the same way by electronic transfer. Same as money is transferred electronically on Earth. Your didn’t think you would be shipping bags of rectangular green ink stained pieces paper back and forth from Mars to Earth did you? There would have to be a neutral country on earth that would facilitate the transfer do give said mars bank access to Earth’s financial environs. Banks of course make money by investments as well as of course loans; in this case transfers facilitated by said host country/organization earthside.
In other words they get to the point by having backers on earth before they leave; a fiduciary arrangement based on their (the mars colonists) business plan.
Can you provide the details of this business plan which will attract backers? You can’t just assume that they exist.
“So far I sense that both men view space settlement as a transportation problem”
This isn’t true but they do view it as the current bottleneck and solving one piece of the puzzle doesn’t mean they solve all of them, rather it allows other people to solve those problems.
The Underpants Gnome theory has a beginning and an end with some missing information in the middle because you can’t master plan a space economy any more than you can a terrestrial one. We will watch it play out in real time as people find things to do in space and the cycle of discovery plays out.
Not being able to predict the future with exact specificity isn’t a very good argument. No one can do that, so that isn’t a good demand to make when it comes to persuasion on the larger issue.
What makes the case for space isn’t any single issue but lots of them, big and small, that appeal many individuals and groups. There will always be people who disagree and that is why it is important that space is removed from the ideological competition for government funding and placed into market competition where people and groups can pursue their desires. and test them against reality.
One of the problems with the “master plan” theory is that even if you could make one, reality has a way changing it for you anyway. We humans aren’t new to the frontier game. We’ve been doing it for a couple of hundred thousand years. We will figure it out as we go along.
Yup and so many of the nerd fights about where to go first or what problems we need to solve before doing x, will get answered by doing. Hello gravity prescription and radiation.
But! We have the black swan of SpaceX to thank for it.
“Can you provide the details of this business plan which will attract backers?”
Musk the richest man in the world wants to colonize Mars…somehow I think he would be able to facilitate “attract backers”; starting with himself of course. Somehow I think he would be able to develop or assist in the development of a business plan to make money colonizing space if he put his mind/resources/connections to it. The point was that you seemed to feel there was no way to make money colonizing space I gave you a reasonable way such might possibly be accomplished. Doubtlessly there are other likely better ways I didn’t think of; smarter people than me (Musk/Bezos) probably have given the matter some thought.
“You can’t just assume that they exist.”
I think it is safe to assume that Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos exist.
There is a heavy element of fandom in space related media. Criticism isn’t allowed, only celebration of sciency things. Fandom is made up of people who “love” science. To criticize something is to criticize science itself and how dare you be antiscience.
Most of these people mean well and just like the rest of us, they like cool pictures and might make one a desktop but they likely never heard much about JWST until its launch.
Faberge Eggs are pretty but I would rather see a wave of space Model-T’s bumping and clattering through the Solar System. …and maybe SpaceX will help make that practical.
Spacenews has had a ton of articles about OTV companies that should be doing just that, as long as they don’t make themselves so expensive the price counters the savings from launch.
Well stated Wodun. I’m happy JWST is getting good images, but it was designed to do this. The JWST project however is an example of why we don’t need a government run space program. Any notion that JWST cost and delays has anything to do with its design is BS. The costs and delays had to do with spreading its supply logistics chain across enough Congressional districts to remain funded.
SLS has exactly the same problems as JWST. It has taken over a decade to use the pieces of STS to build a new rocket. It isn’t because we didn’t know how SRB’s work. It isn’t because we didn’t know how to build a tank that can take loads through its center axis. It is because spending the money across multiple Congressional districts is more important than conducting any astronautical science.
FH could do what SLS is hoping to do in August, but with a proven launch vehicle and manned capsule design. It could also do it again without a 2-year hiatus before the next mission. And when you get into cost and reusability, anyone calling themself “liberal” should be ashamed of supporting government waste like SLS.
And they had to blame COVID too, lol.
COVID gave the dumb NASA “resistance” cover for their fraud of picking up a paycheck while purposely not doing work. Pull their nonsense at SpaceX and you are fired for cause.
Much as I like giant space telescopes, it’s hard to see why the rednecks, horsey people, and rural black farmers I live among should be forced to pay for them. Let the universities self fund their hobby science with a bake sale, or, better still, rent out the pretty coeds* to raise money.
*Remember coeds? I remember coeds.
Launch prices might be low enough that a year of bake sales and car washes could fund a launch and a payload.
“Launch prices might be low enough that a year of bake sales and car washes could fund a launch and a payload.”
Maybe not that cheap but:
“A New Method for Making Graphene has an Awesome Application: A Space Elevator!”
“Thanks to the development of reusable rockets like SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, that price has dropped to $1,410 and $2,719 per kg ($640 and $1,235 per lb). According to an analysis conducted by Tyson M. Sparks (University of Colorado, York Space Systems LLC) in 2014, the cost of sending payloads to orbit with a Space Elevator could be as little as $113 per lb ($250 per kg).”
https://www.universetoday.com/156669/a-new-method-for-making-graphene-has-an-awesome-application-a-space-elevator/
I know we have all heard this “space elevator” song before. Not sure how those cost compare to Space-X’s super-heavy/starship but remember the stated costs of 113/lb would be I believe to Geo-Stationary orbit not low earth orbit.
If space elevator had a tower from Earth and if tower part accelerated rocket to say 1000 mph, then you could not use rest of space elevator. Take the assisted boost and use rocket power to get the rest of way orbit.
And if you had space elevator, you could use it for transmission of electrical power to earth from Space/
If you had lunar space elevator, you could drop water to lunar surface and use the kinetic energy of water as source hydro power. Get water from space rocks, and drop it on Moon to get electrical power.
If Moon had a lot water, one could have lunar settlements.
Or other than CO2 atmosphere, the reason one have settlements on Mars, is because you could have enough water.
Though it’s possible the Moon already has a lot more water and C02 then we imagine it has.
“In this weekly teleconference, NASA meets with representatives from the commercial space sector to discuss opportunities for mutual assistance. In their presentation, they showed how graphene production had reached the point where kilometer-scale continuous graphene fibers can be produced. Examples include how in 2020, researchers at MIT developed a continuous roll-to-roll technique that could create large sheets of graphene at a rate of around 2 meters (6.5 feet) per minute. In addition, the Tennessee-based company General Graphene recently commenced operations, using the CVD method to produce polycrystalline graphene.”
If this is legit…we should very soon start seeing Graphene materials turning up in a large range of products. Bullet proof vests, leading edges in high performance jet craft, tennis rackets, golf clubs, and many other uses. The material also has supposedly insanely good electrical (& I think thermal) conductivity performance, so presumably many applications in electronics, power production/distribution, PV’s etc. These applications would obviously happen years before space elevators; if they don’t and soon then this is probably BS/hype.
I think you could fund the building of a small fleet of OTV type vehicles by targeting high schools, colleges, and other groups to place inexpensive small sats in interesting places. Once in place, these OTV type vehicles would provide other means of generating income through communications, imagery, transportation, and other things.
The question is whether or not enough extra income could be generated to pay for launch and operation costs. But with enough cash backing, a company would be able to go some period of time before turning a profit. It depends on whether or not investors view the company’s larger agenda is worth the wait or the gamble they will be successful.
I am fairly certain this could be done cheaper than some of the companies I’ve read about who seem to be skipping a minimum viable product.
“So far I sense that both men view space settlement as a transportation problem and have yet to confront (or even acknowledge in any substantial way) the greater obstacles.”
Yes but space transportation is a necessary condition but not sufficient. Not much point working on the others until the necessary condition is within sight.
How SpaceX Could Win The Space Race | CNBC Marathon
“Starship is SpaceX’s largest reusable rocket. It can carry more than 100 metric tons of cargo and crew per launch. Musk, says Starship represents the “holy grail” for space travel, but the giant rocket vehicle also is crucial for SpaceX’s future. Some experts have estimated that if SpaceX succeeds with Starship alongside Starlink, the space firm’s valuation could skyrocket into the trillions of dollars.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTjeh5QPL0o
“Trillions of dollars” is how he (Musk) will get his martian colonies going and then some.