Ukraine’s Deadly Gamble

A history you won’t read much of anywhere else.

There should be hearings on this when the Republicans take back Congress.

[Update a few minutes later]

Broken link fixed, sorry.

[Update a while later]

Kyiv is holding out, and Putin is furious.

I’ll bet he is. He believed his own propaganda about Ukraine, and Ukrainians.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Putin’s failure.

[Update later afternoon]

An assessment of the current situation. The Ukrainians have surprised everyone, and for Putin the surprise is quite unpleasant.

66 thoughts on “Ukraine’s Deadly Gamble”

  1. Though Biden just wanted the money.
    And despite how stupid Biden is, it appears Putin has screwed himself.
    And China not looking so good, either.
    So, did Putin fall into a trap.
    Is Putin on drugs.
    I think I most worried by a drug deranged Putin, then almost
    anything, else.

  2. First link is Putin appeasement garbage not a mention of Manafort , one of the key reason the Ukraine was involved in 2016. Who helped to cover-up Yanukovych strips in 2010 election. When Yanukovych was a thug who cracked down on his own people for some sweet sweet rubles.

    Yes clearly Putin is high on his own supply. Believing the Ukrainians people would not resist his advances and would welcome the invaders for freeing them from there democratically elected “tyrant”. At least so far it seems Putin has tied his military hands that hasn’t displayed the ruthlessness to everyone that he applied in Syria to great effect. Though might be tough for making his troops to do that to fellow Slavs. Instead they go for a multi front decapitation strike, with stretching supply lines in enemy territory and risky aerial insertion in contested airspace.

    It also quite shocking how they are losing the pr warfare so badly. Every one of Putin useful allies have turned against him or not given the support on this pr disaster. I’m sorry Biden Played Putin like a fiddle with the rapidly putting out the intel and telegraphing Putin naked aggression. I’m sure also helping to make sure the Ukrainians get their message out, while steady supply of man pads. I wouldn’t be surprised if we not slipping the Ukrainians our intelligence. With the reports of the Russians getting lost I wonder if we are jamming the Russian nav sats.

    1. Yes clearly Putin is high on his own supply. Believing the Ukrainians people would not resist his advances and would welcome the invaders for freeing them from there democratically elected “tyrant”

      I can’t help but think of the parallels – and contrasts – with Bismarck and the Franco-Prussian War.

      What we think of it now, when we think of it at all, is a swift, crushing French defeat, a gaudy imperial enthronement in the Hall of Mirrors: the decisive replacement of France by a united Germany as European hegemon. In reality, the Prussians found themselves bogged down in a brutal and expensive war against a French popular resistance that simply refused to quit, no matter how many defeats they racked up. German logistics stretched and snapped; casualties mounted. European popular opinion, fed by new modern mass media (newspapers), shifted from sympathy for the Germans to fulsome embrace of the beleaguered French, led by Garibaldi and his red shirts. The parallels to Ukraine are there.

      But Bismarck, forced to work in harness with a capable emperor and an even more talented war minister and chief of staff, distinguished himself by cannily neutralizing all the other powers of Europe, which he shrewdly read, and by making sure his foe supplied the first act of belligerency. Vladimir Putin, ensconced in a more absolute power for over two decades, thought none of that was necessary: is there anyone left around him capable of telling him what he doesn’t want to hear? And now he’s paying the price, a price which is not going away no matter how successful he might end up being in conquering much of Ukraine.

    1. Why would Russia want to spy on people who believe the right to bear arms is a human right? Maybe he views them as a threat, just like Progressive Marxists do. This is why we see Progressive Marxists in the USA work so hard to strip people of their rights while inching ever closer to all out tyranny against the American people.

      Is Putin’s style of governance any different than Democrats? Not really. Heck, Democrats have been using federal agencies to spy on Americans too.

      1. Spying is more than spying. It’s also propaganda generation and distribution, destabilization, and other games that spies play in order to weaken the targets they’re set up against. Here, it looks like an exposed attempt to turn firearm rights advocates who are a relatively powerful faction in the US against other factions who are already natural enemies due to gun control stances. Now, she’s pushing different narratives, the implausible “you could poke your eye out” story. I guess that shows how hypocritical espionage can get.

  3. One feed I’ve been looking at is https://twitter.com/worldonalert

    Some of their major roads are pretty reminiscent of the Highway of Death out of Kuwait during the Gulf War. Burned out tanks, BMD’s, trucks, and bodies all over the place. And it’s happening all over the place.

    1. My growing sense is that the Russians *are* bogging down (and I hope they are), but…World On Alert reads like straight up Ukrainian propaganda, like they’re the Finns during the Winter War on steroids.

      It’s so hard to really discern what’s happening on the ground, and I’m deeply unwilling to trust anything I’m reading or seeing at this point.

      1. Agreed. It’s still young and the Russians are still pouring resources in. Glancing at a Wikipedia map, there remains plenty of opportunity for Russian victory. At a glance, the Russian have numerous encirclement opportunities in the far east, around Kharkiv, or between some of the north eastern front fingers moving towards Kiev. Further, if they capture Kiev which is under growing pressure now, that would set back the Ukraine side quite a bit.

        For a particularly nasty example (all on the side northeast from Kiev), there’s a sideways movement towards Bobrovytsja (as labeled on the map) with two northeast movements coming from Nizhyn and Pryluky. If that closes (which may have already happened), anyone in the Chernihiv and Shostka areas are trapped.

  4. The bit about Putin being furious evokes images of Adolf ranting at the Wolf’s Lair (…or later in Berlin). I have been wondering about Putin’s puffy cheeks and what medication he might be taking.

    Anyway as of early Sunday the expectation on the BBC is that Putin is ramping up the brutality, including reports of some sort of incendiary weapons being moved in, and heavy artillery & tanks. I don’t think Putin gives a damn about fellow Slavs, only about the guy in the mirror.

    The disruptions to the lives of people in Ukraine are already bad, and I fear that things are about to get much worse.

      1. That’s an example of the disinformation which suffuses the Western media. TOS-1 launches thermobaric explosive warheads, not incendiaries.

        Why and who call it a “heavy flamethrower” then? Did you read your article?

        idea of a heavy short-range MLRS to launch rockets equipped with incendiary and thermobaric warheads

        Here is another site that notes it can carry both war heads
        https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/tos-1.htm

        So who is spouting disinformation again?

        1. People who want Americans to believe Russia is about to burn down Kiev. Which is built of reinforced concrete and brick, as an aside.

          The Russians can call it a flamethrower or a gazelle but that won’t make it one.

          1. Don’t forget, Biden was claiming Putin was going to round up all the gays and torture and execute them. Even before the war started, media was full of sensational bullshit. I heard something about Russians dragging around portable crematorium too.

          2. I heard something about Russians dragging around portable crematorium too.

            I heard that too. There’s a lot of BS going around. Why would you waste important petroleum or LP gas stocks on the dead? No, the bodies are the native’s problem not the Red Army’s. Just stop and apply some common sense before you believe anything you hear.

  5. This was a good article.

    Not to take anything away from the bravery of the Ukrainian people and their soldiers right now; or even from Zelenskiy’s stout profile under siege. But as we saw with Boris Yeltsin, a leader can shine under fire, and yet have dark sides that emerge in peacetime. Dark sides U.S. policymakers (of both parties) exploited in unwholesome and even self-destructive ways over the past couple of decades.

    1. I disagree, it’s a garbage article.

      Ukraine is situated between two greater powers, Russia and the European Union. That makes Ukraine a buffer state.

      No, that makes Ukraine a people who’ve emerged from Russian slavery, and don’t want to be drawn back into it.

      The trade deal was an ill-conceived EU project to take a shot at Putin with what seemed like little risk. The idea was to flood the Ukrainian market, and therefore also the Russian market, with European goods, which would have harmed the Russian economy—leading, the architects of this plan imagined, to popular discontent that would force Putin himself from office

      Seriously? Those evil Ukrainians wanted to join the EU and get cheap goods, and this is a “threat” to Russia because Russians will want those cheap goods, too?

      At this point, I’ve given up.

      The only “threat” Ukraine poses to Russia is that Ukraine doesn’t want to be enslaved / slaughtered by Russia any more. Which is to say they pose the same “threat” that every other country in Eastern Europe poses.

      What a bunch of whiny pro-Putin BS

  6. I think it’s WAY too early to talk about Russian failure.

    How do we know Putin is livid?

    There are always setbacks. Not on Twitter so I can’t see the WorldOnAlert pictures of highways of death but….who took those pictures?

    I’ll wait a while before I conclude anything about this conflict. The Russians got to Kiev in 2 days. That’s pretty fast.

    1. So easy to forget that it took the Wehrmacht six months to conquer Ukraine, and the Red Army 14 months to liberate it. Ukraine is a big place (as large as Texas!).

      Even in the 21st century, an army often can’t move any faster than its infantrymen’s legs can walk if there’s any kind of opposition at all.

      1. Remember when the commies took over San Marino? The republican government jumped in taxis, drove around the other side of the country, came back in and overthrew the commies.

  7. There is an intense globalist, pro-Ukraine proganda blitz going on right now. I wouldn’t believe anything reported in the press. I also wouldn’t believe anything from right-wing sources as they too are mostly globalist dominated as well.

    If China or Russia had done in Mexico what we have been doing in Ukraine the last twenty years, then we’d be invading Mexico too.

      1. What does CPAC have to do with the war in Ukraine? Nothing aside from the appreciation of memes mocking commies.

        Kinda sucks when you can’t scapegoat us for your own problems huh? Sucks when tyrants Democrats have been fellating for decades invades their neighbor.

        The only good thing to come from Democrats, our IC, and the media repeatedly trying to overthrow our government when Trump was President, is that the Democrats finally adopted negative views toward Russia.

        1. Wodun do I need get you a doll?, so you can show us where the Democrats touched you? Though I probably need a box around here, so your friends can also take part.

          So if Putin was the Democrats favorite tyrant why did Obama kick out his puppet from Ukraine as the article Rand cited claims. Or how bout this of course Obama was a bit optimistic, Russia was and still is above a regional power.

          Speaking of fellating when will Trump stop applying suction? Tucker at least took a breath from his rooting for Russia.

          1. Putin and Obama were the best of friends until Putin embarrassed Obama. The fate of millions of lives were at stake and Obama was butthurt he got embarrassed by his red lines bluff. I think he even said, “Don’t call my bluff.”

            Ill make you a deal. You stop bringing up non sequiturs about Trump and CPAC and all the other troll stuff that isn’t related to posts’ content and I won’t talk about all the shitty things Democrats have done through history in response.

      2. Yes, I believe nations should be able to rule themselves without being taken over by empires, American or otherwise. It’s called democracy. You should look into that.

      1. So what did Orville do that you accuse him of being racist for?

        He is right there is a lot of propaganda going around and its a good idea to be skeptical and wait for more information on specific events. That is rational and nothing to do with race.

        So because he doesn’t support whatever stupid things you think about the war, he is a racist? That is your opening argument?

        So why jump to calling people racist? That’s a really odd thing to do.

  8. Perhaps the biggest flaw in my geopolitcal fantasizing is assessing the resource situation, then imagining I’m in charge of the aggressor side. I don’t know too many world leaders personally. I had a chance to talk to Biden 50 years ago, and he seemed like a boob back then, but I was only 20, so what did I know?

    In the instance, the force deployment looked mainly like the intent was to capture Donbas and Luhansk, along with a bit of connecting territory to Crimea, and transfer the lot to Russia. Then come in from Belarusm capture Kiev, decapitate the leadership, and have a new buffer state. The degree of fuckup that ensued amazed me. Then I turned and looked at Biden, Trudeau, Macron, et al., and though, “Why should the West have a monopoly on peckerheads?”

    Xi has to be asking himself, 1. Are the Russians that incompetent? 2. Are the Ukrainians somehow special? 3. Do American weapons make *that* much of a difference? Then he has to look at Taiwan and think carefully. Trump tried to send 100 155mm self-propelled howitzers to Taiwan, which Biden delayed, then reduced to 30. H can’t think to long though. Aegis Ashore is coming to Korea, Japan, and Guam. May he’ll forget the Taliban kicked us and the Russians out of Afghanistan and focus on the fact that Taiwan is different. We can only hope.

    The worst outcome of all this is, our own Marxist Progressives can use this to pivot away from Covid, give Biden credit for any outcome short of nuclear war, use it to win in 2022, and then find a new and better Marxist Progressive surrogate in 2024. I’m a geezer. I’ll just watch.

  9. I get tired of the Putin apologists out there. There’s this common format:

    Russian President Vladimir Putin chose this war, Joe Biden said in his Thursday afternoon speech to America regarding the conflict in Ukraine. That is true, but

    At some point, we have to understand this is purely Putin’s ballgame. Nobody forced him be the aggressor. Sure, US or other countries’ weaknesses played a part in the timing of the invasion. But Putin clearly had this thing planned out for some time. My bet is Putin’s age was a bigger factor in this invasion than anything that Biden or NATO did.

    So when I see the “Sure, what Putin did was bad, BUT” excuses, it makes me see red. Those are all just excuses for evil and there’s way too many of them.

    1. Yup, he acts with agency and while there are lots of factors at play, many are on the margins. However, criticism of Biden doesn’t make someone a Putin apologist.

      This is something the Democrats have been pushing, if you don’t agree with Democrats, you are a Putin. This is all tiresome because last week we were all Canadian NAZI truckers for criticizing Biden. Before that we were? It gets confusing.

      Biden is a shitty President who cheated to get where he is. Putin is a dictator. There is very little difference between Putin and Democrats or Democrats and that style of governance.

      Democrats are scared people will find out, so they call people Putins and threaten to close their bank accounts.

      1. But it’s possible Joe could destroy Russia:
        Scott Adams
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0iq3yk8hxs
        This is not necessary, good news.
        Putin might be gone in a week, and we could be much better Russia leadership, which is obviously good news. As it could
        lead to much better world- Russia no longer an enemy, etc.
        But if Putin is gone in week, we could worse Russia leadership
        and nuclear power with loose nukes. Or not to mention just more hardship for the people of Russia.
        With good Russia leadership, we could also “save China” from it’s current path of destruction.
        Or global peace and all kinds of nice stuff.

        1. Old Joe isn’t doing anything. He went for ice cream or took a nap or something. The rest of the world is doing what they want and we aren’t providing any leadership. I don’t think we should go to war over this but at the same time, that doesn’t mean we need a weak leader who hides, can’t speak, and can’t handle the responsibilities of putting on shoes much less being President.

          I don’t even want to think of who comes after Putin in a coup scenario.

          All you old guys reading this should start doing your pushups and hit the gym. If things get spicy, the soy bois our schools churn out won’t be in fighting condition if they even fight for the USA.

          1. If things get spicy, the soy bois our schools churn out won’t be in fighting condition if they even fight for the USA.
            If things get spicy; the soy bois can watch their lattes boil in their hands while they become toast within in a few milliseconds of the flash. Please, please, smoke outside…

          2. I don’t even want to think of who comes after Putin in a coup scenario.

            Well, it’s something that needs to be done. Even if a worse leader comes in, there’s always the next coup. Or even possible vote for that matter.

  10. An ex-president said, ‘underestimate Joe’s ability to f**k things up’

    And I would say the same thing about US State Dept and CIA.

    Just look at their track record.
    And in some sense, history repeats, itself.
    And criminals and alcoholics/drug addicts cause all kinds of mayhem to people around them. And it’s true of just stupid people in general.
    Stupid inspires, more stupid.

  11. Part of me wonders if Putin’s plan is to get the Ukrainians good and riled up at him personally. To change their attitude from anti-Russian to anti-Putin. Then when he retires to his Dacha by the sea, a reunion becomes possible.

    It doesn’t seem to fit his personality, but keeping in mind that everything we hear about him is coloured by our corrupt media…

  12. “How do we know Putin is livid?”

    Putting your nuclear forces on special alert because the West is saying mean things about you would tend to suggest anger management issues.

    1. So would it be safe to say we have a madman?

      Though could be bluster to try to make the west back off. Which seems to be failing for this “SMART” man.

      The EU certainly provocative, dunno if it says the EU think the Ukraine will have a conventional force for a while with essentially handing scrap heap bound surplus fighters.

      1. It remains to be seen what Putin will decide to do. It is not beyond the pale to assume he will order strategic (non-nuclear) bombing of Ukraine as the war comes to a conclusion, Chechnya II. If he can’t have Ukraine, he’ll (try) to make sure there isn’t enough of Ukraine left worth owning. Before that can happen maybe the Germans will step up with by lending their land mobile Patriot GTAMs, (which we will reimburse and resupply to the Germans).

    2. If ever there was a President who no sane person would want in charge during a nuclear crisis, it’s Joe Biden.

      If Russia does go for a first strike, Biden will probably tighten up the list of sanction exceptions and give those a month to start taking effect, assuming he’s not vaporized along with all of DC.

      But there could be upsides to that as well. A first strike that takes out our large blue urban areas will drop the nation’s murder rate by 95%, and it should lower gas prices due to decreased demand. It would of course directly reduce the money supply via incineration. If the US Mint is gone, Biden couldn’t keep printing money even if he wanted to, so all of that might slow or halt the inflation rate. And very few Hondurans, Guatemalans, et al would keep flowing across the border, given that the surviving press will drum up fears of the US being a radioactive wasteland where women and minorities are hardest hit. And finally, gamma and alpha radiation would probably eliminate Covid, so the CDC could think about dropping mask and distancing requirements.

      There’s always a silver lining. You just have to look for it.

      1. A first strike at Blue Cities would destroy US oil refining on the East Coast. Along with a few pipeline networks. With interstate highways strewn with radioactive debris and roadways partially pitted and melted and rail networks melted it would be hard to transport gasoline anywhere up from the remaining refineries in and around Galveston, etc. New track might be needed and convoys established on old two lane highways by temporarily making them one-way highways. If LA is nuked, same problem on the West Coast. The most mobile population will be the remote ranchers that have large stables. Once the standing stocks in depots and gas stations are exhausted.

        I had a hellacious childhood set of dreams. My childhood peers would revert in horror when I shared the vivid visualizations. Maybe cause my Dad was a civilian employee of the Air Force during the Cold War. But for me, as a kid, it was all too, too real.
        Of course it was very, very bad in the old USSR. But just because it was way worse over there, didn’t make it any easier over here.

        1. Interestingly enough, back in the day, there would have been IRBM sites in Ukraine targeted in any 2nd strike response by US, and UK.

          The worm may turn, but the the screwing continues.

    3. Reminding the world that Russia isn’t toothless is just them saying don’t get involved, likely independent of how the war is going and whatever statements people think upset Putin.

      A better sign could be the firing of his top general.

      We already went through four years of the walls are closing in, it is good to be skeptical of the press on other issues too. But, the global propaganda machine sure did spin up quick. Guess social media campaigns are easier than military campaigns though.

  13. I have a question. Can the Ukraine make nuclear weapons? I know that they have nuclear power plants. But do they have enough nuclear material to make about 5, or more bombs. They will need to test one.

    1. They signed a Nuclear non proliferation for 1. So guessing to be compliant they have to hand over any bomb grade material.
      Though the none prolif doesn’t mean much with Belarus denouncing theirs and asking their daddy to give them nukes.
      But in Ukraine case them developing nuke would probably jeopardize the EU good will.

      1. They’d have to change the design of existing reactors in order to breed the material they need. The easiest to modify, the old graphite reactors have all been decommissioned since 2000 making it 22 years since they were last in operation. PWR re-design wouldn’t be worth it. It’d be easier to start over from scratch, assuming insurgents & saboteurs would allow you to do it. Then there’s U235 enrichment. Ukraine has native Uranium mines.

        https://www.wired.com/story/ukraine-russia-nuclear-power-plant-chernobyl/

        [Citing Wired is always risky. I’ll assume the Comp Sci, English Lit grad knows whereof he speaks.]

        And there is this:

        https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Ukraine-pushes-for-domestic-uranium-supply

  14. I laugh at all the commentary simply repeating CIA propaganda.
    People! You’re repeating propaganda!

    Now go back and read Lee Smith’s article and ask yourself why you’re believing (and repeating) the propaganda.

    1. Well, you read that and the take away isn’t so much that Putin isn’t a villain but that there are a lot of villains playing games and you can’t be surprised when shit happens because of it.

      It doesn’t absolve Putin but we should all be mindful how complex the situation is and has been for some time.

      1. Exactly. I don’t trust our government any more that I do the Russian government. That doesn’t make one a Putin apologist. It just means I don’t believe a damn word our gov’t and media pump out without checking it out for myself. They are proven liars.

    2. I don’t see much reason for shame. He opens with a straw man argument that foreign media has portrayed Ukraine’s borders as having been “universally agreed upon by one and all for eons”. That ignores that Russia agreed to the present boundaries in an important 1990s treaty that also removed nuclear weapons from the Ukraine.

      Then he follows with the usual nonsense about Ukrainian provocation allegedly arising from the 2014 coup and subsequent Western support, ignoring both that the provocation doesn’t justify the Russian invasions and that allegedly provocative Western support was part of the West’s promised support to make the above treaty possible.

      No matter how much those provocations are spun, it remains that Russia crossed the line and invaded, not anyone else. Don’t like that? Then Russia needs to learn to play the game. They shouldn’t be allowed special privileges just because of their incompetence at economics and politics.

  15. I’m seeing a lot of Americans have been brainwashed to distrust and hate everything Russian. Kind of like people have been brainwashed about the vaxx. Very difficult to get folks to open their minds enough to accept alternate information.

    Here’s The Saker with a pro-Russian perspective …

    And American Col. Macgregor on FOX.

    1. I don’t have any illusions about what the youngsters, some still in their late teens, serving the the Red Army because as a male kid growing up in Russia, it’s what you do. I’m sure they give a friggin’ bleep about Ukraine one way or another. But they are loyal and follow orders and yes are brave. I don’t villify them, at least not the ones doing the dying.

    2. That guy posted a video claiming to be a destroyed NATO base. I think we would be at war now if that were true.

      I’m sure his commentary is genuine but it is interesting to see the Russian propaganda and not just Ukrainian propaganda.

    3. As well they should. For a glaring example, Russia lied hard going into this war. The US got it right even to the rough timetable. Then there’s the ever changing narratives pro-Russia supporters have to go through. For example, someone was talking about how Russia was taking care to reduce civilian casualties. Meanwhile, I was reading about initial use of cluster munitions and thermobaric missiles. The narrative was already obsolete.

      For me personally, I’m no longer interested in hearing about the Russian point of view or how complex the situation allegedly is (it seems to get more complex as the speaker dodges more of the immorality of the invasion).

      Get out of the Ukraine. Russia doesn’t belong.

  16. “The Javelin Is Wrecking Putin’s Army. Here’s How the Anti-Tank Weapon Works.”

    “Ukraine’s Defense Ministry estimates that 102 tanks and 536 armored vehicles had been destroyed as of February 26th. The Javelin likely factored heavily into that rousing combat success.”

    https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2022/02/28/how_the_javelin_missile_works.html

    Good hunting…I hope they are shipped many more:

    “Ukraine had been shipped roughly 77 launchers and 740 missiles before Putin invaded. Many, many more of each are now on the way courtesy of the U.S. and European allies. May the Ukrainians put them to good use. Slava Ukraini!”

  17. I repeat:

    It’s not a walkover for the Russians but usually no invasion ever is. Especially if you haven’t fought a hot war of any size in a long time. There are exceptions but they are rare.

    But that doesn’t mean Russia is losing nor does it mean they won’t achieve their goals.

    For example they took over the nuke power plant that supplies 20% of Ukrainian electrical power (so I’ve read).

    This thing isn’t over and Russia is not losing nor has it lost. There is no guarantee this will be a repeat of Finland.

    There’s no guarantee Russia will win either but that’s where I’d bet my lunch money.

    I pay close to zero attention of pronouncements of Russian failures and difficulties. There’s a lot of wishful news reporting going on.

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