How likely is to happen, and how? An interesting and apparently well-informed analysis.
[Update a while later]
Hacktivists in Belarus are doing a ransomware attack to get rid of Russia.
[Afternoon update]
Putin has waited thirty years to sort out Ukraine.
Sounds a lot like an analysis of the defense of Germany and how NATO could defend without resorting to nukes, during the Cold War.
Without direct NATO involvement, but as a lend-lease type of supplier, any conflict could drag on and on unless Russia were to seriously escalate their forces. Or maybe cut natural gas deliveries to Germany via the Biden approved pipeline.
The problem for Ukraine is a war of a thousand cuts. Drip by drip as Russia only occupies a slowly expanding belt around eastern Ukraine. ‘Police actions’ designed to protect the Russian border and provide security and aid to Russian allies in the ‘former’ regions of Eastern Ukraine.
Just like the ‘former’ sovereign territories in Southern Texas and Arizona now run by the Mexican cartels. Oops. Did I say that?
When the USSR fell apart, my thought was Russia should hang onto Belarus, Ukraine, and the northern tier of Kazakhstan (about down to the Aral Sea) and let the rest of the useless mess go, troublesome Muslims, Caucasus, and Baltics included. It may be, that since he’s holding Belarus and Kazakhstan already, all Putin really wants is the Russian-speaking eastern third of Ukraine. And I believe he can get that without much of a fight. If I were him, I’d try to bribe Romania with the offer of Moldova. Poland is too much trouble. They’d have to nuke it with those nukes stationed in Kalingrad.
“Just like the ‘former’ sovereign territories in Southern Texas and Arizona now run by the Mexican cartels.”
Maybe. But what about the national guard soldiers deployed along the Texas/Mexican border by the governor or Texas?
“10,000 National Guard and Texas state troopers deployed to border for ‘Operation Lone Star’”
https://www.kxan.com/border-report/10000-national-guard-and-texas-state-troopers-deployed-to-border-for-operation-lone-star/
We haven’t lost our Republic yet…and if the 10K aren’t enough sure there are plenty of armed Texans who would happily joint them in defense of the realm so to speak.
More on same:
“Governor Abbott Announces An Additional $38.4 Million In Funding For Operation Lone Star”
“Governor Greg Abbott today announced that his Public Safety Office (PSO) will award an additional $38.4 million for law enforcement, jail operations, and court administration activities in direct support of Operation Lone Star (OLS). The Governor’s PSO has awarded $74.8 million in OLS funds to cities and counties in proximity to the Texas-Mexico border since the operation was launched in March 2021.”
https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-announces-an-additional-38.4-million-in-funding-for-operation-lone-star
Apparently he’s not surrendering Texas without a fight…
All actions I applaud. Would that Arizona and New Mexico follow Texas’ lead… California, well, the cartels would have to deal with the defensive garbage berm across the UP rail lines first. In such difficult terrain it would be hard to know which direction to move in….
“All actions I applaud. Would that Arizona and New Mexico follow Texas’ lead.”
Agreed. I am however surprised that the Biden administration hasn’t tried to stop Governor Greg Abbott. I believe something similar happened under former Texas Gov Rick Perry during the Obama administration. In response to a similar deployment of the guard the Obama administration filed suite against the state of Texas arguing if I recall something to the the effect that the Federal government had the exclusive authority to police/secure the nation’s borders and that Texas was overstepping its bounds. Biden’s people are probably afraid if they did something like that it would focus too much attention on the debacle on the southern border.
We’ll see, I guess. I’m concerned that too many of these analyses are conducted by people who believe Russia is a hollow shell and its forces will be “shredded” by the Ukrainians. Unfortunately, this appears to include the intelligence services reporting to Blinken and Nod. They’ve been wrong before.
No kidding….
Well, Russia is a hollow shell, but Ukraine is not the military I’d want to have to take on large hollow shelled militaries that still have bite.
Still, I think the point of the article is correct. Russia wouldn’t be smart to do a full scale invasion. Taking out important infrastructure with cyber attacks and stirring up internal trouble play much better to their strengths.
Hacktivists in Belarus are doing a ransomware attack to get rid of Russia.
In a related story, the Russian internal security services reveal a remarkable new password recovery algorithm first developed in Lefortovo Prison that involves hacktivist family members.
That’s in line with what happened in hot spots like Beirut back in the 1980s. Foreigners were being kidnapped for ransom or murder. The kidnappers made the mistake of snatching a Soviet official. The reports at the time, confirmed to me by someone who was there, was that the KGB started snatching the kidnappers’ family members and returning them a piece at a time. Not only was the Soviet official released unharmed, it never happened again.
The old “Russian” oligarchs are itching to rape Ukraine.
Perhaps we should remember that “the Ukraine” has little historical existence as a state, having been created initially in 1917, and then only as a component of the USSR. It’s existence as the sovereign state of “Ukraine” dates to 1991. People who claim it’s a continuation of Kievan Rus are propagandists. Hilariously, the Republics of Texas and California, and the Kingdom of Hawaii have more of a historical existence to fall back on. (Fwiw, much the same can be said of the Republic of Ireland, which dates back to 1922. It’s doubtful the island was ever united under an Ardry, and the High King was a myth created around the same time as the King Arthur story.)
With missiles in Ukraine we could hit Moscow on five minutes. With missiles in Poland, what, six minutes? Actually we were happy enough with 20 minutes from Minot, ND until they torpedoed the INF. What happens when they find out how close Saint Petersburg is to Estonia?