34 thoughts on “UFOs”

  1. The more interesting question is why now?

    These observations by the military have been around in one form or another for decades. What, or who is driving the official public acceptance now?

    1. Well, public education is not improving.
      I think that all that needed- there are other things, but without better education, it will cause lots of different things.

    2. NYTs economist Krugman has said that what we needed now was the sudden appearance of aliens who we could fight in a war – there by re-invigorating the world economy similar to what happened with WW2. Given the fact that multi-billionaires meet regularly to implement their pet theories, and these people are, by nature, disconnected from humanity by their power and money it is within the set of possibilities that this is a hoax perpetrated by a Bezos, Zuckerburg or Musk. Their aim being to “save the planet” from whatever it is they think we need saving from.

      1. “NYTs economist Krugman has said that what we needed now was the sudden appearance of aliens who we could fight in a war”
        You need two sides to fight a war.
        We are not a spacefaring civilization, we can’t fight a war.
        And there is no need for space alien to fight us. They might want get rid of life on Earth. But that is not war, it’s just simple to do, if they want to do it.
        So, say they want planet Earth for some reason.
        But planet Earth isn’t a good place to live- we like it, but it’s not a practical place to live.
        Maybe the Aliens want control Humans for some reason. That pretty easy if want to do this.
        We don’t like our politicans- so let’s try some space alien politicans- hard to do worst job.

        Which reminds me. It seems most people think if we become spacefaring we will use a lot energy than we are currently using.
        Or everyone know we can get more energy if we are spacefaring and if we get more energy we use a lot energy.
        But I think if we spacefaring we don’t need to use as much energy.
        Or my view is there is little energy available on Earth and Earth require the use of more energy than compared to say, Mars.
        Or say, L-5 type colony could have people using less energy per capita as US.
        A question is if you had a L-5 colony, would most of energy be used for cooling or heating.
        I would guess most space cadets would claim keeping cool costs more, because that what ISS does. And then might imagine living Venus orbit would worst than Earth orbits in terms cooling.
        Or you have never thought about it.
        I think it’s fairly easy to spend less energy on heating or cooling in space. And US spends about 40% total energy consumption on heating and cooling buildings.
        Space transportation costs should be less.
        But using L-5 colonies make food seems like problem to me.
        Unless plants don’t need much air pressure. Big pressurized space in space is requires a lot material and adding to this making it space with artificial gravity, would require a lot energy.
        To be spacefaring is would helpful if we can grow crops on Mars.

      2. It could be along a line that has been very popular with the Marxist left, that the only way to keep the aliens from destroying us is to adopt Marxism and show that we are more evolved human beings.

        It really does make sense when you realize how peaceful the various flavors of Marxism are.

    3. I think the covid pandemic is the source. The last time UFOs were sexy was just before Y2K. When there’s a great deal of uncertainty, people see UFOs.

  2. I have no problem with the existence of extra-terrestrial beings or even that they are here on Earth observing us.

    What I have a problem with is craft apparently exhibiting reactionless drives and counteracting the effects of apparent extreme accelerations.

    Yeah, yeah Alcubierre warp drive and worm holes and all of that, but all of those things involve insane levels of energy mass fractions that why isn’t everyone even coming close to a UFO or a UAP dying of radiation poisoning let alone being instantly vaporized?

    This remind me of retired MIT physics-hippy guy who “hung out” with my faculty colleagues, even helping with grading Circuits exam papers to have something to do. When I asked him about the Cold Fusion news come out of that lab in Utah, his immediate response was, “If they are getting anywhere near that much thermal energy, they should be dead by now.”

    Even my colleagues doing high-temperature plasma research didn’t think to say “Wait a minute!” Retired MIT physics hippy was able to do the calculation in his head of the expected neutron flux from even a “low” level of DT-DT fusions. Since then, the Cold Fusion people still making excess heat claims from electrochemical cells are calling their process “aneutronic fusion.” As Doctor Evil would say when someone tried to “sell him a bill of goods”, Riiigghhhttt!

    Yeah, yeah, physics pre and post Newton, pre and post Rutherford’s experiment probing gold atoms with high-energy alpha particles, dark matter and dark energy and MOND and all of that. There is a lot of undiscovered physics, but conservation of momentum has been quantified to umpteen decimal places and sigmas of statistical variation.

    New physics is discovered when there are unexpected experimental results, but new physics or not, no one has seen an experimental result going against the expected conservation of momentum. We learned that energy isn’t conserved when Einstein wrote E = m c^2, but we haven’t ever seen momentum to not be conserved.

    Then there are the kill-joy skeptics waving this all off as thermal-sensor artifacts and distance illusions. You have those Slashdot know-it-alls going “make it stop” as expressing exasperation that people are making unscientific claims.

    Well all right, already, if this is artifact, investigate the cases and give a solid, not hand-waving it-has-to-be-artifact explanation.

    1. It seems silly to me to try to explain UFOs. It’s like a cat trying to explain why it can’t catch the red dot from a laser pointer.

      We are limited by our animal brains, just like the cat.

      1. I think not. It is likely something more simple altogether: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”

    2. “Yeah, yeah Alcubierre warp drive and worm holes and all of that, but all of those things involve insane levels of energy mass fractions that why isn’t everyone even coming close to a UFO or a UAP dying of radiation poisoning let alone being instantly vaporized?”

      I believe that NASA scientists Dr Harold “Sonny” White calculated that by varying the configuration of the hypothetical “warp bubble” you could reduce the amount of “exotic matter” to something approaching the mass of the Voyager space probe; i.e. something like 1800KG if I recall. Much less than earlier calculations that required I think approx the mass of Jupiter’s worth of “exotic matter”. I also recall that was for superluminal level space warping; may not need nearly as much for subluminal travel around the merely hypersonic range for the observed trans-atmospheric vehicles.

    3. E = m*c^2 is an expression of the conservation of mass-energy from special relativity, and has never found an experimental violation. Mass-energy conservation also appears in general relativity. Conservation of momentum is observed all the time even in Newtonian physics, in the form of inelastic collisions – where energy is still conserved (just not kinetic energy). But momentum isn’t conserved in Einstein’s formulation of general relativity, and even though more recent mathematical formulations appear to make it happen, they aren’t all consistent, and aren’t all accepted.

    4. Then there are the kill-joy skeptics waving this all off as thermal-sensor artifacts and distance illusions. You have those Slashdot know-it-alls going “make it stop” as expressing exasperation that people are making unscientific claims.

      Yeah, those kill-joys have a lot of nerve, with comments like: “Try that knob over there, the one that’s labeled ‘Focus'”.

    1. Sorry but I am more interested in and have more respect for the Navy/government explanation for the data as genuine and unknown than self proclaimed “expert” mick west. We have senior officials like former intelligence chief John Ratcliffe of the US government saying that the so far released footage is just the tip of the iceberg.

      1. I ran some of his HUD numbers in Excel and they checked out. If the Navy isn’t even taking their investigation to that very basic level of scrutiny, one that would normally fall to a good RIO who would do it in real time, then they really aren’t checking anything at all.

        1. “I assume these explanations don’t cover all the incidents currently being reported, but they certainly seem to rationalise them better than the ET theories…”

          C’mon, man! The real explanation is always the simplest. It’s what Air Force Generals have been giving as the right explanation for UFOs for decades: they’re dry cleaning bags filled with marsh gas.

      2. “the data as genuine and unknown”: quite possible
        “must be aliens!”: that’s silly
        Why should that be the default explanation for stuff we don’t currently understand?

  3. We learned that energy isn’t conserved when Einstein wrote E = m c^2, but we haven’t ever seen momentum to not be conserved.

    What E = Mc^2 teaches us is that mass-energy is conserved.

    1. Indeed mass-energy is conserved, which is explained in Special Relativity.

      But momentum is also conserved, there is not a clear theory to justify it, but if momentum conservation is ever proven to be violated, hello reactionless drive! Hello star travel!

      1. *Snort* “Engage the Bergenholms! With our inertia neutralized our Galactic Patrol cruiser can travel at over sixty (60) parsecs per hour.” Shades of old school SF author E.E. “Doc” Smith, indeed.
        Count me as skeptical…

      2. As a general rule, if you camera sees something undergo impossible accelerations and velocities, the object is just a light, either inside the optical train or shining around out in the real world. The bright spots sweeping across the clouds at supersonic speeds whenever German bombers were over London were searchlights, not aircraft.

        1. “As a general rule, if you camera sees something undergo impossible accelerations and velocities, the object is just a light, either inside the optical train or shining around out in the real world.”

          My understanding was that in some of the 140 or unexplained cases mentioned in the report there were multiple detection technologies simultaneously confirming said sighting; more than one set of radar, more than one number/kind of cameras, as well as more than one set of trained human pilot eyes. Tough to dismiss that as merely “buggy data”, misidentification by human eyes etc.

          1. “The bright spots sweeping across the clouds at supersonic speeds whenever German bombers were over London were searchlights, not aircraft.”

            But just think: what if they had been Bat Signals?

          2. “But just think: what if they had been Bat Signals?”

            It provides the opportunity for a new origin story and for an explanation for why Batman was unable to come to their aid.

  4. Well military wants more funding, are willing to give anything a shot, particularly, when saying idiot stuff has no consequences.

    There was no consequence for FBI [the best light, is incompetence].
    Is anyone going to fired for giving misinformation, or is promotion the more likely outcome.

    But on topic of aliens. If we were aliens, what would we want happen in regard to some other civilization?
    It would some government agency which in charge handling that issue.
    And I don’t think any bureaucracy ages well. So, space aliens are going to governed, not by wise choices, but it would be far worse than “Get Smart”. We would chicken pens full space aliens who have fallen down and can’t get up.

  5. “Congressional hearings on UFOs? They’re probably coming”

    “Something has spurred Carson to take up the battle cry on this issue and we can hazard a pretty good guess what it was. As I mentioned above, while the public report was only nine pages long, a classified version of the report prepared for Congress was supposedly ten times as long. Given his position on the House Intelligence Committee and the sensitive subcommittee he chairs, Carson would have seen that report. Off-the-record sources have been describing the reactions of some of the members as being rather “stunned” by whatever it was that they saw.”

    https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2021/07/05/congressional-hearings-on-ufos-theyre-probably-coming-n400477

  6. The real question is, if we have visitors from elsewhere, why are there no Dyson clouds in view? Even the sun system would be noticeably brighter than natural expectations in some RF wavelengths today. at ~K0.7.

    To run some numbers – let’s say the smallest civilization that can regularly send interstellar probes with loiter capabilities is ~K1.1. I’m picturing this as something like The Expanse solar system – self-sufficient 2nd planet, inner asteroids starting to be industrialized, routine travel to some outer planets, compact fusion reactors and drives, a few O’Neill colonies but not ubiquitous. Using Sagan’s K scale that’s about 5000x the current energy usage of humanity but still a modest solar civilization.

    This is about 1e17W. Assume all of this gets radiated away in the 300-1000K (3-10 micron) range. The sun is relatively dim in this range, with total flux of about 8e19W. Assume there’s a concentration about the ecliptic so all of human IR emissions occur in a band that accounts for 10% of the sphere. This would make the sun appear about 1% brighter than blackbody in long IR wavelengths to a spectrometer that happens to be looking at us along the ecliptic. This anomaly should be easily detectable by an IR survey mission. Maybe that gets washed out by noise or natural sources but give it a few centuries or millenia – a K1.2 civilization will stick out like a sore thumb with 10x more IR emissions probably shifted towards colder temps where the sun is even dimmer.

    Isaac Arthur is my go-to source on this kind of stuff. I find a lot of people who think about these things don’t even try to put numbers down to test their assumptions. The Fermi paradox is real, and UFO visitors would only make it more paradoxical unless you posit that the 2nd law of thermodynamics is defeatable.

      1. I would suggest either the Civilizations at the End of Time series or the Megastructures series as good entry points to his material.

    1. “The real question is, if we have visitors from elsewhere, why are there no Dyson clouds in view?”

      Dyson spheres are about the top-of-the-line of what we can envision that super-advanced ET’s would be capable of. What if they have moved beyond capturing their sun (or other stars) energy to some kind of power generation we can scarcely even conceive of? Like maybe Zero-point energy? Dark Energy: the energy apparently pouring into our Universe causing the expansion to accelerate? They may regard “Dyson spheres” about the same way a 21st century nuclear engineer would regard waterwheels. It would be like the medieval world of 1000 years ago trying to imagine nuclear fusion; good luck.

  7. “A Declassified Intelligence Report Cannot Explain UFOs – What’s Next?”

    “Lou is hoping not only that they’ll formulate a clear, consistent line, a narrative on this, but it will be a narrative that acknowledges the truth,” says Daniel Sheehan, Elizondo’s lawyer. Then he went on to make an astonishing claim about UFO retrieval efforts that Newsy hasn’t confirmed — and weren’t addressed in the report: “There’s a lot of evidence, very compelling evidence that the United States military, the Defense Department, has recovered more than one of these crashed UFOs. And there’s ample evidence that they’ve been engaged in an aggressive program of trying to understand the technology and to back-engineer it, to try to create some sort of a weapon system using their technology or a spacefaring type of technology based on their technology,” Sheehan said. The Pentagon had no comment. Elizondo is bound by a nondisclosure agreement but says that if a foreign adversary was behind UFOs, that would be an intelligence failure on par with 9/11. I can certainly tell you from my experience–that were pretty confident that its not Russian or Chinese technology, Elizondo told reporters at a Washington Post event.”

    https://www.military.com/video/declassified-intelligence-report-cannot-explain-ufos-whats-next

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