Were they a mistake?
Yes, certainly, at least in terms of the duration. I think that future historians will think them one of the biggest policy blunders in human history.
6 thoughts on “The Lockdowns”
Comments are closed.
Were they a mistake?
Yes, certainly, at least in terms of the duration. I think that future historians will think them one of the biggest policy blunders in human history.
Comments are closed.
If we take Asian flu as a baseline with a +2% economic growth in the preceding years and -1% in the year of, it cost about 3% of GDP which was largely made up with a 1959 boom of about 6% growth. Call it about $100B in lost productivity in 2012 dollars https://alambicim.com/how-low-can-it-go-asian-flu-of-1957-58-foretells-recession-in-2020/ Compare that with about 3% global growth before the pandemic and -5% global growth the year of, if there is a full recovery in a year, the US share is about 8% of $21 trillion or $1.7 trillion. Globally, close to $11 trillion; the entire world GDP in 1958–that’s equivalent to the permanent loss of 50 million people making the average global purchasing power of $18k/year in 2020. Yet, only about 1 million have died so far. The cure seems to be about 50 times as bad as the disease given the efficacy of lockdowns seems to be about the same number of covid cases and other deaths as doing as little as Sweden–at best. That does rank as one of the biggest man made blunders in dollar terms in history so far. Is there a vaccine to cure the madness?
I think my attitude on the lockdowns would be different if I was typing this from day 123 of being locked in a dorm at the US national college cheer leading championships. But I’m not.
Of course, had that happened, like any sane man, I would’ve tied bed sheets into a rope and escaped through a window by day four.
My vote would be for colossal blunder, given the timeframe.
Lockdowns made sense IMHO in the initial implementation; “2 weeks to flatten the curve”, in order to avoid overloading the medical system.
Other than that, seems pretty clear they are folly.
It was obvious going into the lockdowns that there was no exit strategy, at least not a political viable exit strategy in blue states. At this point, the powers that be in these states have no alternative but to stay on course and hope things somehow turn out go their way on November 3rd. This sucks for those of us in these states forced into state-induced poverty, but when making an omelet some eggs are bound to broken, right?
If Biden wins, on November 4th I’m certain the narrative will be “OK everyone, the emergency is over. Back to work. Don’t you know, we have an economy to crank up.” If Trump wins, I shudder to think what the reaction will be. Will GOPers in blue states be hunted as some have predicted?
Or that we must all come together as Americans share the risk and step outside the house returning to work and school. It will be a patriotic duty. And to be fair, I think that should be the message right now.
Was it a blunder? Depends on the goal.