The cynic in me says all these vaccines will be available just in time, right after the inauguration of Quid Pro Joe or his successor. Otherwise, phased trials must continue far into 2021 and beyond. Because, you know, science….
To focus on the more ‘science-y’ part. We’ll have a great vaccine for which strain of SARS-CoV-2? The Wuhan strain or the European strain? What about the other 4 emergent strains? I presume the hope is, that as this RNA virus mutates it becomes less lethal. The reality may actually come about (as with the H1N1 vaccine), that by the time it becomes available either the virus will have already died off due to herd immunity or mutated into a strain that is far less lethal. Probably a strain the current vaccines are ineffective against, but because they don’t generate the COVID-19 syndromes, will largely get ignored. I also predict that our state & local governments will continue to mandate mask wearing long past the point of usefulness, but because of their inherit un-enforceability, people will eventually ignore the mandates long before the ‘regulations’ are off the books. When Walmart drops the requirement, it will be the beginning of the end for mask wearing…
As an aside, we are past the point of where contact tracing is useful outside of people visiting old folks homes. At approximately 3 million exposed and climbing, remember the mathematics of the “six degrees of Kevin Bacon”. At only 3 degrees of removal multiplied on average by a contact of 3 people per degree, we are at half the adult population of the United States. When you have limited contacts of less than 1000 infected people, contact tracing has a chance. We don’t have that, can’t have that, it’s too late for that to work. So move on. You must assume that everyone in the United States has been exposed. We need to be tracking serum positives, not viral positives to determine who no longer needs to social distance. BTW, I’ve read the nasal swab tests cannot do a superb job of differentiating between SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses that cause the common cold. But hey, test, whatever..
On the less science-y side… It’s got nothing to do with public health, but is great at scaring people out of their minds for a disease that is 98-99% recoverable among those that get it. Oh and the motorcycle accident that killed its rider that was also counted as a coronavirus fatality…
Also as an aside, it’s all orange man bad. Let’s not consider the hide bound federal health agencies. What a monkey house show. Don’t stand too close to the bars, unless you want something undesirable thrown at you.
The cynic in me says all these vaccines will be available just in time, right after the inauguration of Quid Pro Joe or his successor. Otherwise, phased trials must continue far into 2021 and beyond. Because, you know, science….
To focus on the more ‘science-y’ part. We’ll have a great vaccine for which strain of SARS-CoV-2? The Wuhan strain or the European strain? What about the other 4 emergent strains? I presume the hope is, that as this RNA virus mutates it becomes less lethal. The reality may actually come about (as with the H1N1 vaccine), that by the time it becomes available either the virus will have already died off due to herd immunity or mutated into a strain that is far less lethal. Probably a strain the current vaccines are ineffective against, but because they don’t generate the COVID-19 syndromes, will largely get ignored. I also predict that our state & local governments will continue to mandate mask wearing long past the point of usefulness, but because of their inherit un-enforceability, people will eventually ignore the mandates long before the ‘regulations’ are off the books. When Walmart drops the requirement, it will be the beginning of the end for mask wearing…
As an aside, we are past the point of where contact tracing is useful outside of people visiting old folks homes. At approximately 3 million exposed and climbing, remember the mathematics of the “six degrees of Kevin Bacon”. At only 3 degrees of removal multiplied on average by a contact of 3 people per degree, we are at half the adult population of the United States. When you have limited contacts of less than 1000 infected people, contact tracing has a chance. We don’t have that, can’t have that, it’s too late for that to work. So move on. You must assume that everyone in the United States has been exposed. We need to be tracking serum positives, not viral positives to determine who no longer needs to social distance. BTW, I’ve read the nasal swab tests cannot do a superb job of differentiating between SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses that cause the common cold. But hey, test, whatever..
On the less science-y side… It’s got nothing to do with public health, but is great at scaring people out of their minds for a disease that is 98-99% recoverable among those that get it. Oh and the motorcycle accident that killed its rider that was also counted as a coronavirus fatality…
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-man-killed-crash-listed-covid-19-death-raising-doubts-over-health-data-1518994
Just be thankful this wasn’t MERS, which is a lot more lethal.
Also as an aside, it’s all orange man bad. Let’s not consider the hide bound federal health agencies. What a monkey house show. Don’t stand too close to the bars, unless you want something undesirable thrown at you.