Glenn told me a few days ago that he was working on a piece for the Journal. It’s up now (but paywalled). He has an excerpt.
[Friday update]
Chris Johnson, of the Secure World Foundation, has a long disquisition explaining the background and purpose of the Executive Order.
[Bumped]
[Update Sunday morning]
Another take from Professor Michelle Hanlon. And a longer-than-necessary one from Dimitra Stefoudi.
[Bumped again]
“There’s a lot of wealth in space. A 79-foot-wide asteroid could hold 33.000 tons of extractable material, including $50 million worth of platinum. The 2-mile-wide asteroid 1986 DA could be worth $7 trillion. But that will require massive investment in new technology, and investors need assurance that they won’t pour billions into capturing an asteroid or mining the moon only to be told the resulting product isn’t theirs.”
What is valuable in space is water.
If water in space was far rarer than it is, water in space is worth less rather than more.
If you though driving down the price of platinum was very important, then mining in space could be very important.
But I would say lower the price of water in space is very important, far more important than lower price of crude oil on Earth.
So would say lower the price of lunar water to $500 per kg is very important, and lowering the price of lunar water to say 10,000 per kg, is not vaguely important. Or lowering price of platinum by 30% on Earth is far more important then lower lunar water to $10,000 per kg.
One aspect lower lunar water to $500 per kg is it makes the Moon a destination. Or one do things on the Moon- and there lots of things to do on the Moon- doesn’t include the high costs of “living on the Moon” or in terms of lunar settlements, $500 per kg {and not going much cheaper within a decade or two} doesn’t make the destination for settlements as Mars “could be”.
But as important as making the Moon a destination, is that lunar water sold as much as 500 per kg, creates a potential market for water in space{or outside/beyond the Moon and Earth}.
And that market of water in space is more important then both Moon and Mars as a potential destination.
Or one can ignore the Moon and Mars and if you can start a market in space for water, that’s more important than Exploring Moon and Mars to determine if there is mineable water which enables both or either to be destinations. And one could ignore the Moon and Mars and start of market for water in space.
But like mining platinum it’s expensive in terms of initial investment costs. But a government or group could start a market for water in space- or if not concerned getting “investment dollars”. Or bill gates could start a market for water in space- because bill gates could spend a few billion dollars. Of course a government could also do the same thing, it could spend several billions dollars.
And Catholic church could also spend few billion dollar- in order to “save the world” type thing.
But if the moon is explored and mineable lunar water is found, that could lead to mining lunar water, and that makes a market for water in space {excluding or outside of lunar and earth surface]. Or rather use the term “in space”, in Earth orbits or more specifically in Earth high orbit {which is more than 1/2 way to anywhere in space/in this universe}. And Catholic church could say, “we going to start being more practical about going to Heaven.”. Or any religion could say this.
Or course the problem is NASA not doing it’s job.
If someone wants to do NASA job, they could explore the Moon.
Exploring the moon to find mineable water, and then mining the lunar water, is pretty hard to do. But one do it quicker and it could cost less than exploring space rocks and finding mineable platinum and then mining the platinum.
BUT if the Moon was explored and found lunar water, and it was mined, then mining space platinum would be a lot easier.
But also settling Mars would easier. And exploring Mars to determine if one could have viable settlements on Mars and settling Mars, would also be a lot easier.
And looking to make a lot of money, if settlements are viable, Mars settlements seems like the “big money”.
But I don’t know if lunar water is mineable or that Mars is viable as destination for future settlements.
As mentioned before, lunar water at $500 per kg makes the Moon a destination. And Mars water at $1 per kg is pretty close to making Mars a destination. Even if Mars water was toxic/polluted- or making it, drinkable shouldn’t cost too much.
A major part of water anywhere is connected to the cost of electrical power.
Or whatever can eventually lower the cost of electrical power in space, is what is most important.
Or price of drinking water is sort of like the cost of a bottle of beer.
But if Mars can make cheap and good tasting beer, that’s also important. But having SPS is more important, though making Mars beer could be related to Earth having SPSs.
Water in space is far more important in space than on Earth. If you are looking to bootstrap, water is important to sustain your operation but if you want sales, look for an asteroid rich in the “rare Earth metals”. Rare means profitable when found.
This is going to open up some interesting technologies to exploit these minerals. My first guess is a laser heated fracking tower mounted on the surface of one of these asteroids. Heat it up till it melts or vaporizes, and then separate the component elements. I believe each asteroid mined in this way will have its own unique system for extracting valuables. Now that the miners can own the product, it will happen, and soon.