…seems to be at least somewhat effective.
If we can find what works for treatment, and only isolate the most vulnerable, that’s the best path forward to re-open the economy in the absence of a vaccine.
[Update a while later]
Time to dump epidemic models? All models are wrong, some are useful, but it’s not clear that these have been, though they’ve certainly been used to implement policies that a lot of people wanted to implement before the pandemic.
[Bumped]
A theory going around is that a large portion of the population has already contracted COVID-19 with minor to no symptoms. Those who had it have antibodies that can be tested for. A study has been conducted in Santa Clara, CA https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 where it was found that…
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
Based on today’s Kansas COVID numbers and using the low end of the Santa Clara study of 50 fold, the more accurate death rate in Missouri is 0.1% no different than the average flu season. Missouri is at 0.06%.
In my best Jerry Seinfeld voice, “What’s the deal with the China Virus? It’s literally no worse than the flu.”
You always have to watch out for observation bias. People more likely to respond to Facebook ads, may well be more likely to engage in risky behavior that exposes them to COVID-19.
But an order of magnitude more likely (reported cases were already expected to be a substantial factor under actual)? I don’t know.
–In my best Jerry Seinfeld voice, “What’s the deal with the China Virus? It’s literally no worse than the flu.”–
So, Chinese govt over reacted to their virus?
I think WHO committed war crimes.
And you think WHO over reacted and scared the world and we should not have closed down air travel to China.
Which is what WHO recommended, and why I think WHO committed war crimes- resulting in killing thousands of people and costing world trillion of dollar in damages.
And the global murder has not stopped. South America will be the next major disaster. You see it in news, within a week.
“Then a funny thing happened. A mere nine days after announcing his model, Ferguson said a better number for the U.K. would be only 20,000. The equivalent would be fewer than 80,000 American deaths. Technically, that U.K. number was buried in a table in the report under what might be called “a fantastic case scenario.” But could that reduction possibly reflect a mere nine days of restrictions? No.”
I say, roughly the virus appears it will kill 400 per million.
And in US it’s killed: 117 per million
And New York State: 901 per million
New Jersey: 458 per million
California: 27 per million
Other countries {States}:
Italy: 384 per million
Spain: 429 per million
“Then a funny thing happened. A mere nine days after announcing his model, Ferguson said a better number for the U.K. would be only 20,000. The equivalent would be fewer than 80,000 American deaths. Technically, that U.K. number was buried in a table in the report under what might be called “a fantastic case scenario.” But could that reduction possibly reflect a mere nine days of restrictions? No.”
So, 400 per million, US pop: 320 million = 128,000 deaths
But you have factor of crowd immunity.
And purpose of “social distancing” or lock down should be to slow rate of infection and to achieve crowd immunity.
And crowd immunity is like vaccinations.
If look at countries with low deaths per million it only means {roughly} one has factors which function like “social distancing” and a slow increase in herd immunity.
So, New York State death per million indicates “little” effective social distancing and a large amount of herd immunity.
Or one has effectively given some portion of the people of New York State. a dangerous though perhaps fairly effective vaccination shot. And question is how many people in NYC have been have been given this dangerous vaccination.
It seems New Yorkers have a much higher percentage of it’s population vaccinated, as compared to the people in California.
One could say roughly the people of California got less percentage of people getting vaccinated which was a bit less dangerous vaccine.
It’s less dangerous due to “social distancing” as policy and “social distancing” due to nation of less population density and other factors not having to do with human behavior.
So if people are expose to virus, roughly you get 400 people dying per million, minus population which has herd immunity {or given a “natural” vaccine- by being infected already.
So the people of California were effective than New York State, because they were few day ahead of them in terms of locking down, sooner. But due to nature {pop density} if NYC lockdown at same time as California, then be late in locking down and would be “getting” a more dangerous vaccination “shot”. But if worried duration of lockdown, NYC timed it almost perfectly. Though stopped elevators, buses, and subways, hours or a day earlier it’s would not effect lockdown period shortness by much and have a significantly safer “vaccination shot”.
Let me predict something, any vaccination shot for any virus will be less effective {measurably} in New York City.
Though if NYC as more vaccination shots per million, or higher percentage of people taking elevators, buses, and subways have higher percentage vaccination, the vaccination will be more effective.
Anyhow, right now New York city already has the people who normally take elevators, buses, and subways, more other New Yorkers with more “natural” vaccination shots.
Now, it would nice to test for this immunity in the population, and might better to test people who travel say in subways often, but it seems people of NYC can get out of lockdown soonest.
But one should some consideration of the state of States near New York State, such as New Jersey which “seems” fine, but also other states.
But California might better place to test getting out of lockdown, and it needs to get to about 200 death per million OR wait for a manmade vaccination shot. And if in a hurry such vaccination shot could be dangerous {cause more deaths per million].
Or with California {and elsewhere] one could keep older and more vulnerable people in quarantine, until you get a safe vaccination shot and less strict quarantine when general population increases percentage of immunity. If protect vulnerable people in quarantine, then the death of 400 per million is a lower number.
Or anyone who contacts such people must already have immunity- manmade vaccination shot or “natural”.
The only place of I know of which took early measures to isolate such vulnerable population, is Florida.
So need stats on Florida and other place which did this. Or get idea by how many younger people died or got critical condition from this virus. It also appears there could be long term effects from people who get into critical conditions, and no way to know the long term death rate due to this {not vaguely allowed for, in terms of 400 per million].
rats, double pasted:
“Then a funny thing happened. A mere nine days after announcing his model, … And meant to paste the second time:
“Time to dump epidemic models? All models are wrong, some are useful, but it’s not clear that these have been, though they’ve certainly been used to implement policies that a lot of people wanted to implement before the pandemic.”
Because I gave a “model” and I imagining it’s “useful” or
Or not against idea of giving models they gave at start of “lockdown” but what we need is model of when to get out of lockdown.
But a better first model would been to limit death to 100 per million, and high density area will need lockdown measures started earlier, and immediate action should be locking down all nursing homes and restricting other vulnerable population.
Part of protecting vulnerable population keeping distances and wearing masks not needed to healthcare worker. And since mask may not work as well, keep more distance. Or no mask completely protects, but a scarf over face {mouth and nose} and not touching face and wash hands a lot, will have low risk of getting infection or a more severe infection.
Or main thing about virus is it spreads very fast and can be spread by a person without any symptoms and you can spread it to other when you are unaware you have it.
{and I think if exposed to high viral load, it can have more serious health consequences as compared a low amount of virus- and very low amount might be too low for body to develop a immune response. Or if give a too small amount of vaccine, it will it likely not give you immunity, and if give way to much of vaccine, it’s more likely to give an adverse reaction to a vaccine}. And possible there are “super spreaders” of virus. But what is known is if more people have it, and don’t know they have it, the more viral load you can get in an enclosed space with lots of people who don’t know they have it.
Some world news from BBC
{I am not fan of BBC, but they do give world news, unlike CNN}
Some headlines:
Ecuador’s coronavirus nightmare in pictures
‘We are not prepared at all’: Haiti on the edge
Massive surge in deaths in Ecuador’s largest city
Bolsonaro fires health minister over coronavirus
‘Undocumented virus explosion’ sweeps Brazil
Chilean writer Luis Sepúlveda dies of Covid-19
Latin America’s biggest graveyard from the sky
Second Brazilian governor has coronavirus
Stranded travellers ‘desperate’ to get home
Raspberry Pi ventilator to be tested in Colombia
Why coronavirus could be catastrophic for Venezuela
https://www.bbc.com/news/world/latin_america
Chinese virus create a miracle:
How coronavirus inspired a gangland truce
A truce has broken out in the notorious, gang-infested townships around South Africa’s Cape Town.
8 April 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-52205158/how-coronavirus-inspired-a-gangland-truce-in-south-africa
South Africa could be even a bigger problem, but guessing South America and Latin America goes first.
South Africa and India has couple reasons why might not be a serious problem, but at least I think they have more time.
And good to see a couple gangs in S Africa can seem to be concerned about it.
Keep in mind that all the models, percentages and graphs are fake due to asymptomatic carriers.
And due to miscounting of deaths, where those who died of something that would have killed them anyway but had Chinese Flu symptoms are counted as Chinese Flu deaths.
Like Chinese prisoners killed for body parts.
That is also a number, not known, but depending on how you want to count deaths, it “could be” more deaths per year, than the actual {unknown} number of Chinese killed by the Chinese flu.
But I would favor, as condition, of removing China from the current prohibition of international travel, an attempt of counting of both these deaths.
To gbaikie,
Yes, China, the Wuhan Health Organization and everyone else over-reacted. You’re going to see proof of this over the coming weeks as the results of serological testing become more widespread.
Besides the Santa Clara example, there is this batch of testing done in Boston among a group of several hundred homeless people. Thirty-six percent tested positive. Nearly all were asymptomatic. Massachusetts is also one of the hot-spots.
People are looking at the counts of deaths alone without considering the huge population they take place in. They have no perspective of the true impact of COVID-19, which I’ll say again, appears to be no worse than a bad flu season in terms of death.
–Orville
April 19, 2020 At 7:14 AM
To gbaikie,
Yes, China, the Wuhan Health Organization and everyone else over-reacted.–
I assume you kidding when you call WHO the “Wuhan Health Organization”
It seems China does control the World Heath Organization, a international organization specifically founded to stop global pandemics.
Or as wiki says:
“The World Health Organization (WHO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for international public health.
The WHO Constitution, which establishes the agency’s governing structure and principles, states its main objective as ensuring “the attainment by all peoples of the highest possible level of health.”
It is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, with six semi-autonomous regional offices and 150 field offices worldwide.”
Not kidding, and what do you say to the examples of Santa Clara and Boston? If what those two instances indicate is true then your entire position re the CCP virus is sunk. So, address that.
Well, first, if not kidding, who cares about Wuhan Health Organization? It’s first time I have ever heard anyone discuss the Wuhan Health Organization. But everyone knows something about the WHO. So, I think if you mention, I think would a contesy, to give some clue of who the Wuhan Health Organization is. But as a joke {on words} it makes lots of sense. So especially, since mention something which could said the be called the WHO because it’s name is Wuhan Health Organization- which is basically nonexistence, to most people who know nothing about such organization.
So doubt there is any Wuhan Health Organization and if something like it existed, it actually could be translated from Chinese language. Because something in Wuhan would have a chinese name- seems to be, Americanizing a chinese name, which pointless when few have heard what it’s called in China.
Anyhow to change the topic:
Scott Adam’s video is somewhat interesting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccT9B5Ib3Kg
If you interested in TheSimulation scott might always be interesting. But I am not.
And Scott can be tedious and could make a huge list of why he can appear quite tedious.
And if anyone want add proofs of scott’s tedious and groundhog day like qualities, I might find it interesting, but merely claiming he is tedious, would count as interesting.