19 thoughts on “The Coronavirus”

  2. Yes. This is this issue precisely. That’s why waiting on the WHO to declare a pandemic, as they finally did today, is always as my dad used to say “A day late and a dollar short”.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/11/who-declares-pandemic-coronavirus-disease-covid-19/

    Responding quickly while the disease is in its early exponential growth phase gives some chance of containment. The problem is epidemiology during this time. Its damned near impossible when people are w/o symptoms and when they finally do exhibit you have to guess estimate back in time to the point of infection and back tracing all potential contacts. That is why finding patient 0 is always so important. Every day that goes by from the point of infection forward is a geometric branching point. Put some of these people on jet airplanes, as Richard Preston wrote his is classic book “The Hot Zone” (published 26 years ago) and within a week you have a worldwide pandemic in the offing that will take a further 4 to 6 weeks to manifest and cannot be mitigated. And that’s just the spooky part. I haven’t even bothered to consider those who are symptomatic and yet go on with their daily routines, infecting others and for whom 97-99% (depending on whose figures you believe) will fully recover. Be thankful for that.

    1. Containment based on contact tracing, I guess, works for Ebola, where there do not appear to be asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic “carriers.”

      The hope of containing the spread by contact tracing went out the window when they found a case in Seattle or State of Washington, where the person tested positive but was not swept up in a contact-trace dragnet.

      I guess at least the Gen-1 tests from the CDC weren’t very good and Orange Man Bad All Trump’s Fault and all of that. Also, when test kits are scarce, you do restrict them to people fitting the profile.

      I am still holding on to hope that a lot of people already have this virus and the people getting a pneumonia from it are outliers. I know, if you die from this, you’re dead, but it would be good to get some reassurance we are not all going to die this way.

      The thing would be “saturation testing” to just see how widespread people with no symptoms or “it’s just a cold” really are. It is said this was done in S. Korea, with the claim that the death rate is closer to 1%, still scary in relation to seasonal flu in the .1 % range or H1N1 maybe in the .2 percent range, but not quite the 1918 Flu.

      1. I agree. It’s nearly impossible to get an accurate count of who really has this disease either as asymptomatic or mistook it for “just a cold”. This number could drastically change the mortality rate. I suspect we just don’t really know and probably never will.

  3. Given the pathetic early response of WHO (they didn’t even want travel restrictions!) and of CDC (test kit fiasco) I have zero confidence that they are not missing something that’s both big and easy, and could make a difference.

    I’m talking clues here. For example, why are smokers more vulnerable? Sure, part of it is lung damage, but is that all of it? Think it through – this thing is very often spread by surface contact (hence the wash your hands importance) and smokers are putting something in their mouth while out and about.

    Eyewear; I’d love to know what the numbers show regarding glasses-wearers vs. non eyeglass wearers. The reason is that the eye is a known and common pathway for *some* similar viri to be transmitted via airborne particulates. A pair of safety glasses might well lower one’s odds of contracting this. I also think it might be helpful to wear gloves, and then remove them before getting in your car (so you don’t contaminate it, too).

    And, the biggie; touching your face while out and about. The advice not to do it is good, but it ignores the fact that there’s a way it’s done a lot, and worse, done with something that’s a known vector for bacteria and viri. It’s worse than taking your shoe and rubbing the sole on your face. It’s a cell phone. Just watch people who use them; they just grab the thing and stick it against their face, one end near their mouth. So, leaving the cell phone home or in the glove box might be a very good idea indeed.

    What’s the common thread of all of the above? No downside risk or cost, and less trouble than even washing one’s hands (though by all means do that too).

    1. Actually, out and about is better than inside – the virus is destroyed by sunlight, so outside is better. Don’t wear gloves or a mask outside, only wear it inside.

  4. Hypothesis: In nine months there will be a worldwide decline in births versus the previous year due to “sexual distancing”.

  5. Well I got my emailed open letter from Starbucks vis-a-vis COVID-19… Here is an on-line copy:

    https://stories.starbucks.com/stories/2020/managing-courageously-through-the-dynamics-of-covid-19/

    Which of course w/o testing of their employees doesn’t really mean a damn thing how well they clean and sanitize their counters at the drive through window. If/when we ever get “millions of testing kits” out there it would be wise NOT to start with the general public, but focus on the portion of the population that can act as prodigious disease vectors. Like fast food workers. Ya think?

    1. I’d also like to know how good are these “testing kits”? How many false positives and false negatives do they generate? And why are people who are barely symptomatic being tested (NBA players?) when a the same time people who have all the symptoms report not being tested.

      And the talk of the “exponential growth” and talk of doubling of cases is mathematical innumeracy memes being spread as part of the panic. (“Lily pads?”, “Rice grains”, really?) Exponential only works in an infinite population. A better metric is the percentage of the exposed population, and noting when the inflection point is passed, going from curving upward to curving downward.

      Then again, the Democrats do seem to be able to get out over 100% of the vote in lots of precincts that they control, and no one seems to care.

      1. Very little information about the effectiveness of the tests. The Atlantic had an article fear mongering about the lack of testing but burried in the article was the note that one of the tests was beung held up by the FDA because it wasn’t accurate.

        In another article about testing in South Korea, they mentioned using 5 tests. They were all inaccurate but each test was more accurate during different phases.

  6. Coronavirus has shown us the way to climate justice. No one will need cars or airplanes when we spend our entire lives in our houses. Plant-based food will be delivered by drones. People authorized to mate by the WHO need only mail sperm and ova to the hatcheries.

    1. Seriously, this is likely to radically reduce oil usage for the forseeable future. Businesses are cutting back on flights, countries are going to try to bring production back from China, and people who get to work from home for a while may never want to go back to their cubicle.

      There’s less and less reason to travel when alternatives are available. And we’re getting a sudden vast experiment in using them.

      2. Meanwhile, the Saudis failed to get the Russians to reduce pumping in order to help prop up prices (to some extent, Russia *can’t* reduce pumping, or the wells will freeze), so they’re going the opposite direction and starting a price war.

        This time around, it might actually wipe out a lot of the smaller domestic shale producers, unless they pull a second miracle out of their hat in the form of more new technologies that continue the dramatic cost decreases of production over the last decade. However, the majors are getting better at shale, and worst case, they’ll make out like bandits at the fire sales and just wait the price war out with their reserve cash.

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