19 thoughts on “The Latest From The Apollo Cargo Cult”

  1. That was not a cargo cult analysis. I could go point by point and support just about every thing asserted.

    I came up with the same 2024 date in my Red Dragon comment yesterday.

    What assertion did he make that was false?

    It doesn’t have to be an America only program. Ask every country that would like to participate to pay for just two launches (much less than a billion total for two FH/Dragon launches; one presupply cargo and one with two crew and personal property… making each colonist a multi-millionaire) Ask Bezos to up his schedule to match SpaceX (he can afford it.)

    If 50 countries took the offer we’d have our first hundred on mars preparing for the rest. In less time than the Apollo program and at much less cost.

    1. Even if what you say is true, the political will is just not there to do it.

      Not in Washington. Not in Brussels. Not in Moscow. Not in Beijing. Not in Tokyo.

      What will there is for BEO development is mostly focused on the Moon.

      1. Political will is a product of circumstances more than it is a driver.

        The complaint (not that you are complaining) that there’s a lack of political will is akin to someone blaming customers for a lack of demand for a product. That’s the product’s fault. If there’s a lack of will to go to Mars, it’s because the “Mars product” fails to serve its customers.

        1. The “we lack the will” lament is a not so subtle attempt to imply moral weakness on the part of those that don’t share one’s enthusiasms.

  2. Hmm. If I was a colonist (fat chance), could I defer use of some personal space for some future flight(s)? I’m thinking of things like Moore’s Law here.

    2. …could I defer use of some personal space for some future flight(s)?

      That’s actually built into my premise. Future colonist will bring most of their personal mass allotment in as trade items. It makes no sense to bring something they can already get from mars (like all life support after the time it takes to meet up and much more… too numerous to list.) So deferred personal space is just another way of saying you’ve made a trade agreement with someone before they left earth. You could trade perhaps 9 months of labor for whatever they bring before they arrive. Martians will be makers. Note this means you also aren’t limited to the perhaps 1000 kg of personal items that are included in your ticket.

      1. Who pays for tickets? The Mars Colony Development Trust (MCDT.) It’s charter only allows it to buy ticket in a reverse auction starting at $5m per ticket and going down (if a second vendor competes) after the first 100 colonists that world governments pay for. The terms of the ticket are that colonists agree to protect and defend absolute property rights and claim all of mars into the trust which must then auction all the land by hectare to any individual without discrimination. It would not matter how many years that took. The MCDT could also receive funds by any other means such as Mars One’s IP plan and simple donations (some billionaires would likely donate if the trust was managed properly.)

        Obviously $5m would not pay the costs of the early colonists and would be more of a subsidy, but that’s more than ten times what Elon predicts ticket prices will eventually be.

        Now is the time. There is no reason to wait. We aren’t going to learn how to live on mars any faster than actually going. OTOH, we could easily defer going until we never do.

        1. We aren’t going to learn how to live on mars any faster than actually going.

          This is a bullshit argument. The difficulty of living on Mars will be affected by general technological advance, even if nothing is done to specifically make “living on Mars” easier. Waiting could be the best strategy.

          Think about how absurd your argument would have been if it had been applied in, say, 1930. Now explain why now is different from then. Has overall technological advance stopped?

          1. Waiting could be the best strategy.

            Absolutely right and usually (by very much) wrong.

            There is an optimum point. Go too early, you fail. Go too late, you lose growth opportunity that you may never recover.

            Take a much closer look at 1930. What technology did they know back then? How many decades did we lose while it collected cobwebs?

            Then WWII came and proved something much more profound and bigger than the war itself. Progress happens a lot faster when the naysayers are marginalized.

            Naysaying is pure cowardliness. Yes, failure is not only an option but it is required for success.

            So the question remains… is it too soon? The answer is that we certainly know enough now to try. We’ve been mitigating the risk for over 50 years now and can continue doing so fastest by doing rather than endless debating.

            If there is a risk we can’t deal with it hasn’t been identified. That’s how you know it’s time to go. Note: I did not say there were no risks. There will always be risks. But not going when we can, guarantees lost opportunity cost.

            Speaking of cost. Do you imagine SpaceX could have made the progress they have without bending metal? Should Elon have just retired to write a book?

            The cost to getting tons to mars has come down from billions to millions. The only way it comes down to thousands is if we get going. Going now saves us money by further reducing costs and gets a new economy started… you know, like they did in that waterless desert called… uh… Las Vegas… Palm Springs… et.al.

            Growth only happens after you go.

          2. The difficulty of living on Mars will be affected by general technological advance

            Less true than you imagine. The real impact on quality of life will be from low tech infrastructure which only comes from labor and time.

            Living space just takes time and effort. Product and service availability is more than 99% low tech and more about getting logistics and lead times right than having the latest gizmo available. Employment will be 100% because every skill will have value. “Too many workers” will never be the case on mars in our lifetime.

            Anything made on earth can eventually be made on mars and faster than you imagine because the incentives are what they need to be. Martians will leave Terrans in the dust per capita for the foreseeable future regarding development pace (per capita) all because the incentives have that much force. This is easy to see with just a small amount of contemplation.

            As their population grows this momentum may cause them to outpace us even without per capita considerations. In time, Martians may think of Terrans as backward rice farmers!

          3. Has overall technological advance stopped?

            In 1969 we had a working Thorium molten salt reactor.

            How much has the world lost because of not having this for the last 50 years? It’s huge!

            This type of waste happens constantly and represents a crime against humanity that can almost not be quantified. Compared to that lost opportunity cost, WWII wouldn’t even be a blip.

            It is a crime so great that it puts into question whether humanity even has the right to exist. We should probably be replaced by smart amoebas.

            Not colonizing mars is not a crime of the same magnitude, but it’s in the same ballpark.

          4. This is a bullshit argument. The difficulty of living on Mars will be affected by general technological advance, even if nothing is done to specifically make “living on Mars” easier. Waiting could be the best strategy.

            There are some things we will not learn without doing. We can’t anticipate all of the challenges and solve them before living on Mars.

            We live in a time where there is a confluence of technological advances, human capital, money, and other factors that make now a great time to begin settling Mars or other places.

            A rational approach would be incremental low risk advancements that build on each other and support developing Mars and space in general.

            The best way to solve the problem is to identify the first step needed and take it. Then repeat that process going forward.

      2. I’m not thinking labor for cargo space, but rather trading present space for future space. Since I expect present space to be in high demand, I would expect to be compensated for a larger amount of space in the future, like a bank.

        Or a loan shark. ?

        I would use this space for 1) items whose demand was underestimated or unexpected, 2) items that didn’t exist at launch due to technological advances or changing tastes, and 3) consumables that for whatever reason are not being made locally, like medicines or printer inks.

        2. Darkstar (I bought and lost that DVD twice!) it’s the same thing. You have future space, but it’s just not part of the ticket.

          You’re trying to figure out how to get future mass delivered at no additional cost. Sorry, not gonna’ happen. What will happen, in accord with your desire, is that future mass delivery will come down in price faster than if you gave up current capacity for future capacity. In other words, not only will you ultimately get what you want, but it will actually be a better deal than you want. You and Moore’s law both win.

          It doesn’t have to be labor traded for product. Every economic alternative is always available. You just have to think of a good deal.

        3. I would expect to be compensated for a larger amount of space in the future

          Basically your trading futures. Before you leave earth, you contact an existing martian colonist and make a contract. You will provide the current colonist X kg. in exchange for 2X kg two years after delivery or 3X four years after delivery.

          Later you decide your best deal is to sell that 3X contract to another colonist.

          It’s all about the contracts baby! Which is why civilization requires good contract law enforcement.

          So there ya go, space for space.

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