A (sort of) debate between Paul Spudis and John Grunsfeld. I think that Grunsfeld is far too pessimistic about the moon, but I also think that this debate is irrelevant. Our future in space will be determined by billionaires, not Congress or NASA.
6 thoughts on “Moon Versus Mars”
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How our future in Space *starts* will be determined by billionaires, but as it develops beyond their investments, the networks of industrial society throughout the Solar System will acquire their own dynamic momentum. This will mean that even if these fellows are trillionaires in 40 years, they will not be determining the continuing trends of the emergent network, but following them. Indeed, without the freedom of *many* to grow as they wish to grow, these fellows can not become trillionaires.
Bull’s eye! People are so blind. Sell them and do both.
All the navel gazing is pathetic.
Both Moon and Mars require exploration.
It’s NASA duty to do this exploration- and NASA has failed to do this.
“Our future in space will be determined by billionaires, not Congress or NASA.”
NASA has failed and perhaps billionaires could be successful. But billionaires would also first need to explore the Moon or Mars before they could likewise be successful.
In regards to the Moon, they is probably areas on the Moon which could be commercially mined to get lunar water. And we don’t know where these areas are- that is what needs to be explored.
The idea of focusing on a lunar base is a waste of time, but if one were to make a lunar base, one should explore the Moon to determine where best to put a lunar base- that also has not been done.
For Mars exploration the focus should be making a manned Mars base. And there has been some discussion about where one should put a Mars base. Most involved in this realize that further robotic exploration is require before this could be decided. Or the discussion is about what areas need to explored in order to determine where to put a Mars base.
Or one could say there is more progress done with Mars bases vs Moon bases because Mars base has the very small progress of knowing one needs to know where to put a base, before one have a base. But as said NASA doesn’t need a lunar base in order to explore the Moon.
I would say that in theory the Moon could be adequately explored with robotic exploration, but the Moon can not be commercial mined using robotic only. Or no one in their right mind would do this- heavy reliance on robot operations, yes, but not the idea of prohibiting lunar crew.
As I said before, NASA lunar exploration program should start with using robotic exploration- and finish with crewed lunar landing {and lunar sample returns}. In addition to starting with lunar robotic program of the Moon, NASA should start with establishing a depot in LEO.
The depot in LEO would not be a manned station. But also I would not prohibit crew going to such a depot. It should designed as Hubble was designed- ie crew could repair it.Or use it for re-fueling manned missions, but in beginning idea is that robotic missions [ie, lunar] would use the depot.
Mars unlike the Moon, can not be explored with robots only- it’s not an option. Or every Mars robotic mission to date should regarded as precursor missions of Mars exploration rather than exploration [though lousy precursor due to not being focused on needs of future Mars exploration- grab bag efforts].
As I said before, NASA lunar exploration program should start with using robotic exploration- and finish with crewed lunar landing {and lunar sample returns}. In addition to starting with lunar robotic program of the Moon, NASA should start with establishing a depot in LEO.
Put people here and they can control the robots much easier. It will also allow for sending robots and humans to more destinations on the Moon easier than launches from Earth (IIRC). It is also a good staging area for missions to the rest of the solar system.
Some people want to go to the Moon, some to Mars, and some to other places. The USA, or Americans, should control the keystone station that will enable all of this.
The Europeans want to have a lunar village? Cool, let’s participate but let’s also profit off it by controlling access points.
IMO, the risk is much higher for Mars. I think it would be much better to get a successful Moon program under our belts before taking on the Big Kahuna. We’ve taken our first baby steps, but we’re not yet ready to run a race, and if we try, we may sprawl on our faces.
It is when you actually attempt to do something that you start learning the lessons of how to do it. There are many lessons yet to be learned at the Moon, which will provide a more stable base to take on the larger task.
The things they will learn on the moon is mostly not applicable to mars. The moon is harder than mars in terms of growth meaning we will apply the wrong lessons the same way the I.S.S. and shuttle taught us the wrong lessons. The natural inclination will be for earth to fix moon problems. Mars will mostly have to fix their own problems sending us down a much better path.
Look at what industry accomplished during WW2 and compare that to metrosexual ‘progress.’