20 thoughts on “Elon’s Mars Plans”

  1. Wow, that’s even more ambitions than I thought.

    I’m deeply skeptical (given things like Falcon Heavy’s slips) that SpaceX can come anywhere near this schedule, but NASA has the exact same penchant for schedule slips.

    On the other hand, it’s at least possible that as SLS further slips (and it will), we might see SpaceX sending astronauts toward Mars before SLS can even fly EM-1 (the unmanned lunar flyby they currently plan for the first launch).

    However, even if SpaceX can stick to this bold plan and timeline, NASA still has them beat in one critical category; hashtags.

    1. Falcon Heavy’s slips

      Elon explained that his priority follows demand and FH customers are not really beating down his door (especially since the F9 upgrade.)

      I really like how he states he may be delusional but never knowingly publishes a false deadline!

  2. It is going to take a gusher of cash to fund biannual Falcon Heavy Mars missions, much less the development of a big new launcher for crewed missions. Musk seems to think he’ll find the money; I hope he’s right.

    1. Any word on how many crew Dragons NASA is buying? If customers are buying cores at full price and SpaceX resuses them to launch to Mars, and if the dragons are 2nd hand…. these missions can be done pretty cheap and would beable to sell cargo space. 4000 pounds at 15,000 a pound. 60 million…

      1. The final Commercial Crew Transportation Capability contracts awarded to SpaceX and Boeing were awarded for the same set of requirements: completing development and certification of their crew vehicle then flying a certification flight followed by up to six operational flights to the ISS. The contracts included at least two operational flights for each company.

        So right now, three Dragons guaranteed, but it will inevitably be extended to seven unless something goes badly wrong. Then NASA will award contracts for another set of flights.

        1. Don’t count on those extra flights. The ISS will be reaching the end of its useful life soon.

    2. Jim, that’s one of the few legit criticisms I’ve seen of Elon and/or SpaceX’s plans.

      It is certainly a whole lot brighter than the implied criticisms in the article like: “NASA doesn’t plan to get there until 2030 (so SpaceX can’t possibly plan to get there before then)”.

      I think you are right. Elon needs about a billion a year of profits to fund Mars activities. Maybe he can capture enough of the space comm market and add that together with the portion of the NASA budget he’s won.

      1. Elon claims a 10% margin and a dozen flight per year to break even. That doesn’t sound like a billion per year. More like $100m per year? Which makes their $10b valuation seem off as well.

        I am so confused 🙁

        1. Let’s say 10 comsats a year = $700m gross + about $500 million a year from NASA (estimating from memory) is about 1.2b in revenue yearly.

          I’ve estimated costs about 4000 employees X .25M = about 1 billion per year very roughly.

          I’m in rough agreement with your estimates of SpaceX profits. Valuations are voodoo, and I don’t expect them to accurate.

          My point was that I think that Elon needs about a billion (WAG) in profits per year to fund ongoing, large development projects and missions to mars. Doesn’t look like he’s there yet.

          I think the numbers support that his marginal profit per flight is maybe of the order of $50m. If he can get the customers, and keep up the flight rate then spaceX’s profits will soar.

          1. Ok, if you assume a p/e of 15 that’s in line. I have to assume the valuation is right because nobody puts a billion dollars into a company as they did w/o knowing that.

      2. Its more about revenues and investors, than profits, that will determine if SpaceX can self fund their initial Mars trips. Something can’t be a cost and a profit at the same time.

        A per launch profit, made by anyone but SpaceX, is just an estimate. From their perspective, you have to look at the entire business not any one product line. Internally, they probably assign shared cost to each unit but no one outside SpaceX has enough knowledge about their expenses to be 100% accurate, even if some people make good educated guesses.

        Paying customers for Mars trips also have to be considered. Even if they don’t turn a profit on initial launches, customers could be a big help covering some costs.

        I wouldn’t be surprised if most of SpaceX’s “profits” are being reinvested back into the business but because of the large cash flows and the long timelines involved in their projects, they are sitting on a pile of cash. They probably also have some sort of investment scheme to use some of this money.

  3. Elon’s comments are now being discussed on basically every space blog on the planet. He had fundamentally changed the arguement. No one is saying it is impossible anymore only the timeline seems up to debate.

    A brilliant move for millions of free media and people talking about SpaceX.

    I would really like to hear what some policy makers are saying behind closed doors about this.

  4. I know Mars is his deal, but wouldn’t an iterative Dragon2 landing on the moon be a good tech demo?

    1. He is focused on Mars but his comments imply the possibility of customers using these products where ever they want.

      The Moon would make a great demo though. Perhaps that is plan b if they miss the launch season for Mars?

    2. Yeah I also think something akin to Project Selena and Project Deimos by Philip Bono would work better. Use a Dragon 2 with add-ons to land on the moon, and built on that to go to the Martian moons and later on Mars itself.

  5. As with NASA, I have to wonder about the ECLSS part of this. How is Musk or NASA going to keep N people alive on the trip, which is going to be 500ish days at the very least? A certain amount of RDT&E and DEMVAL in LEO or cislunar space might be a good idea.

  6. Doesn’t Elon know it’s all ignorant nonsense? We’ve never been to mars, so how could we possibly ever go? What if he gets stomped on by all the elephants in the room he keeps ignoring?

    Nobody should take him seriously.

    2. forgot your /sarc tag.

      Also, Elon might need to hire some NASA folks to help him generate some viewgraphs and hashtags.

      #JourneyToMars #REALJourneyToMars

Comments are closed.