Mathematics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Popular Culture

Trump’s Empire State Victory

57 Comments

…changes nothing.

It’s still going to be very hard for that Democrat to win the Republican nomination.

[Update a few minutes later]

Don’t confuse primary success with general success:

Now, there’s no reason in principle why a candidate who wins “only” 12 or 13 million votes in the primaries (or even just five or six or seven million) could not win a general election. That depends entirely on the candidate and his campaign. But the point here is that even a terrific primary performance offers zero evidence that a candidate actually can win a general election. As all of the head-to-head polling illustrates, it isn’t even a sign that that said candidate would perform better in a general election than other candidates who got fewer votes in the primaries.

This is especially true in Trump’s case. His hard-core supporters fail to comprehend just how deeply unpopular he is with everybody else outside their relatively small group. According to the last eight polls taken on the question, Trump has an unfavorable rating of between 60 and 70 percent among the general population that will vote in the 2016 election. He is not that much more popular than the ebola virus. (Although no virus has ever tried to run for president, so we cannot be sure.)

Trump supporters seem to be quite delusional about this. There is no one who doesn’t have an opinion about him at this point — he has no up side. When someone as well known as him can’t beat someone as unpopular as Hillary Clinton, it would be insane to make him the nominee (particularly when it would be one Democrat versus another).

[Afternoon update]

Classless Crybaby Wants To Be America’s Complainer-in-Chief.

Rick Wilson is a cruel man, but fair.

[Thursday-morning update]

GOP delegates: Trump’s attacks may backfire on him.

You don’t say.

[Bumped]

[Update a while later]

D. C. McAllister agrees with me; Trump and his supporters don’t understand our system of government.

57 thoughts on “Trump’s Empire State Victory”

  1. Trump coming up almost 80 delegates short of the 1,237 he will need

    With plenty of unbound delegates that’s a win.

    As far as beating Hillary, it’s a question of the treacherous elites and media making a choice. Actually I think it’s great that so many have revealed themselves for what they are.

    Hillary loses to Trump.

      1. You hope. They’re all a bunch of weenies. Cruz would woo them with PAC money. Trump doesn’t need OPM.

        2. Rand, you’ve got a backbone. What makes you think they do?

          I’ll bet he buys them off cheap.

          3. They are long-time Republican activists. They aren’t interested in bribes, they’re interested in nominating a Republican.

            Eh, whistling past the graveyard. And since when have Republican activists been so virtuous? Has the party been replaced overnight?

            It’s a credible notion that Trump might not offer the better deal, but that’s not going to have much to do with how Republican Trump happens to be or not.

          4. I notice that Rubio has stated he will endorse Trump should Trump get the nomination. Rubio has enough delegates to throw things for Trump should Trump do as well as he currently does, but falls a bit short prior to the convention.

        1. The unbound delegates are similar to Dems superdelegates.
          By which I mean, were Bernie Sander able to beat Clinton in the remaining contests, Clinton’s superdelgates could switch to supporting Sanders.
          Or quite simply the Republican unbound delegates will tend to pick the candidate which is winning.

          Crazy Kasich is correct, in that he could win- he has as much chance to win as Cruz. But both Kasich and Cruz are losing.
          Cruz lost his unbreakable southern firewall- he did well enough to survive, but not enough to win. Kasich beat Cruz in New York and next Tuesday, he probably will beat Cruz in most of the contests- but he will lose to Trump. Kasich is lose just like Cruz lost in his southern firewall- though probably beaten far worse than Cruz lost his.
          What Kasich needs is not having to win against Trump. It would help Kasich if Cruz was a stronger competitor against Trump. And it would help Cruz if Kasich was stronger competitor against Trump- both are failing. Both simply need to be better candidates. Both have underestimated Trump’s ability to win or both would left the race weeks ago, or both have a very high opinion of themselves in terms of ability to win.
          So probably after next Tuesday, Kasich will probably look less insane, and Cruz will begin to appear more insane. But either of them could win, were they good politicians.

          So the unbound delegate will tend to go with the candidate who does well in the remaining primaries- or will tend to forget about the earlier primaries and put more weigh on the then, more recent
          primaries- but they won’t forget the totals of bound delegates which have been gained, unless they see magic from Cruz or Kasich.
          So far the only magic has been from Trump, and it’s likely this magic will continue.

          Another topic, Instapundit compering Trump and Obama.
          The idea that they are same in sense of fill in the blank is wrong:

          –CHOOSE YOUR HISTORICAL TRUMP METAPHOR:

          ● Donald Trump is the next Wendell Willkie! — says Scott Johnson of Power Line.

          ● Donald Trump is the next Oswald Mosley! — says Terry Teachout of Commentary.

          ● Donald Trump is the next Roderick Spode! — says Roger Kimball at PJ Media.

          ● Donald Trump is the next Barack Obama! — says Angelo Codevilla at the Federalist.

          A wise community organizer seeking an employment promotion once told his media supporters, “I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views.” Why should his potential successor be any different?–

          Trump is anti-Obama or like comparing a whale with porcupine-
          yes, they are both mammals. But Cruz is far more similar to Obama than Trump is. That they are mammals is because Trump and Obama both were running in America election- and both are increasing the turn out [but any politician who can win, will do this].

  2. I was initially aghast at Trump, but the constant attacks on him are so vicious and unrelenting that I wonder how he would poll if the entire Republican establishment wasn’t spending hundreds of millions to demonize him.

    I’ll also note that in one in-depth questionnaire about 20% of Republicans initially denied supporting him because they’re reluctant to admit it to strangers because of all the vicious approbation that inevitably ensues.

    Certainly Trump’s candidacy was a disaster, but I think it’s been aided and abetted by letting Cruz run and knock out all the other natural born conservative candidates with someone who argued in court that we have no due process right to stimulate our own genitals. That may play well in Peoria but it won’t fly in Florida.

    1. “Letting” Cruz run???????

      “….and knock out all the other natural born conservative candidates …”

      Cruz did not knock out Walker (for example) …Walker simply failed. I’m not entirely sure why Walker failed but it wasn’t because of a concerted attack from Cruz.

    2. Well, there are only so many strong conservative and evangelical voters who weren’t on the Trump wagon. Their other choices were Walker, Santorum, Carson, Fiorina, Jindal, Huckabee, Rubio, Christie, and Rand Paul. Some of them like me wouldn’t vote for Cruz because he’s ineligible, having been born in Canada as a natural born subject of Queen Elizabeth II. But the conservatives stayed split between all those other candidates, and Cruz used his tent revivals and massive ground campaign to take Iowa.

      He kept at it as one by one the other conservative options dropped out, and now he’s the only alternative to Trump or an establishment candidate, possibly a white knight like Romney or Ryan. But he can’t take office, so he’s effectively completely disenfranchised the conservative base with a sham candidacy. And he knows he’s doing this. Every civics book says the President has to be born on US soil. Unless he’s an illiterate moron, he’s read the Supreme Court’s opinions on natural born citizens and simply rejected them, substituting his own reality. He probably thinks he can run for Miss Universe, too.

      Had he not been willing to derail conservatives and the entire conservative movement for his own self-serving ambitions, there would still be an electable alternative to Trump or the establishment. But we don’t live in that world and now we’re screwed.

      1. I’ve been saying this for nearly a year on multiple websites. It is one thing to have Jennifer Granholm as Governor of Michigan, something else entirely to have a double citizen (Cruz still hasn’t given up his Cuban citizenship, which he has under the same logic that gives him American citizenship) as President.

        Are we really so keen to have Arnold Schwarzenegger run in 2020?

        1. OK. Fine. If Cruz is the nominee, one guess what the October Surprise will be. And imagine how well your protestations to the contrary will play with voters who don’t pay attention until just before the election – also known as “the majority”.

          For what it’s worth, the courts got Obamacare and Kelo wrong, too.

        2. That was an amusing opinion. The judge seemed to be saying “Yeah, but do not hold me to this!”

          That’s because he’s wrong on the law, and such an opinion would create havoc.

          For example, natural born citizens cannot be denied entry into the US. If any child born abroad to a US parent is a natural born citizen, Congress has no power to say they’re not. A Chinese man, upon being naturalized as a US citizen, could return to China, open a sperm bank in Bejing, and start pumping out tens of thousands of natural born Americans. Hundreds of thousands of US Chinese could do the same, and their Chinese children, being natural born Americans, could do the same. Then we’d end up with a billion Chinese natural born Americans and Congress would have no power to stop it. They could come here freely and elect whoever they want, being the majority.

    3. –George Turner
      April 20, 2016 at 9:12 AM

      I was initially aghast at Trump, but the constant attacks on him are so vicious and unrelenting that I wonder how he would poll if the entire Republican establishment wasn’t spending hundreds of millions to demonize him.–

      I thought many people would be aghast at Trump- so I didn’t think he would win. I simply disliked Trump, then and now. But I am impressed with Trump’s courage- and I like that aspect a lot.
      It seems the attacks on Trump are counterproductive- or continuing the republican tradition of being very stupid. But in some ways they are helping Trump. Or without this onslaught, Trump would have to do something different than what he is doing- or he would lose.
      Or a big question is can Trump do something different- ie, can he be more presidential.
      It seems that the assault will be a continuum, the republicans will eventually stop [there is limit to the infinite stupidity] and then the Dem will pick up the baton- without much breathing space between the onslaughts. Of course what interesting is, will the Dem assault [which generally very viscous] be more intense than republican assault- it should be if histroy is any guide, but it seems Trump might be able to quickly destroy the dem candidate.
      Trump will have one advantage of only having one candidate to destroy. And it seems the crazy left is powerless against Trump, and plus the crazy left doesn’t even like Clinton. So Dems might begin disarmed or quickly become disarmed.

  3. It would be very helpful to the Cruz side if the Cruz campaign would stop scoring own-goals.

    I’m referring to their bragging about bagging delegates by means other than the ballot box. I don’t blame them for doing it (I loathe the rules that allow it, but those are the rules of this season, and they are what they are) but publicly boasting of it (as quite a few from the campaign have done) is insane; it has no upside and plenty of downside. The distaste many voters have for what are seen as insider games and disenfranchising voters is real, and it’s a factor in Cruz’s declining poll numbers, so why on earth make the bad PR hit worse than it has to be?

        1. Who else can I speak for? Have you looked closely at Cruz? Cruz was my first choice. Then I got to know more about him. At best, he would not change the downward trend. We need a real shakeup and he’s more of the same.

          He’s a false tea partier.

  4. Thinks aren’t looking good for Cruz. There doesn’t look like much of a chance for him to win.

    A contested election has a high probability of being mismanaged. There will have to be a candidate who can win over Trump supporters.

      1. Suppose you had a higher opinion of Trump voter’s (come on, stretch a little. Imagine they’re mostly decent people if common.)

        Shouldn’t there be such a candidate?

      2. Ivanka Trump turns 35 at the end of October. Sure, she’s donated to Hillary and Corey Booker, but unlike Melania who was foreign born, Ivanka is native of Manhattan and is 3 inches taller than Ted Cruz.

        Republicans might also rally around Newt Gingrich, James Woods, Gary Sinise, Bruce Willis, Robert Downey Jr., Leonardo DiCaprio (did you see how he fought that bear?!), Dwayne “the Rock” Johnson, Stacey Dash, Melissa Joan Hart, or Ann Coulter (who played the Vice President in Sharknado II).

          1. It’s a dirty job, but somebody’s got to do it.

            Mike is too nice to be the attack dog, but I like the idea… it would actually balance the Trump ticket. Still, the heads explode factor of Sarah is too good to pass on.

      3. I am not sure you can make the argument of electability if the eventual candidate can’t appeal to a significant number of people who have voted for Trump. Anyone who can’t win over Republicans isn’t going to magically find more support outside of the party.

        1. The Republicans are pretty much screwed this year regardless of who is the nominee. Trumpsters won’t support anyone else, and a huge number of Republicans (as I will) will stay home or write in if confronted with a Hillary/Trump choice.

          1. You’re good with Hillary then?

            Trump is so bad you’d prefer Satan?

            I almost wish Cruz wins to see your disappointment.

          3. They were both the same question. Sorry to be unclear.

            Not voting means you see no/little difference between them.

          4. Every once in while I wonder [slightly] what the libertarian party is doing.
            Last heard something about couple billionaires that are running or something.

            Nor have heard much about space in this campaign session.
            When general starts and there is the battle for Florida, I suppose the topic of Space might be brought up

          5. So its a question of whether convention shenanigans or having Trump as the nominee will lose more voters.

            In the general, I am not certain we can predict how things will play out by looking at current polls. Hillary isnt exactly well liked either. Things also depend on how upset Sander’s supporters are with a rigged primary.

  5. That classless crybaby article was hilarious. Apparently Trump is just supposed to bend over and take it like a man?

    Ironic, with other posts about authoritarianism.

    Regardless of the merit can he not fight back?

    Then to claim he doesn’t understand the system? He complains about it because he understands it. He’s winning and that drives people nuts. He’s fighting back against authoritarianism. It’s about time.

  6. “That classless crybaby article was hilarious. Apparently Trump is just supposed to bend over and take it like a man?”

    Actually, yes. For two reasons:

    1) Them’s the rules and he didn’t complain about them (or apparently even know about them) before the election started or after the election started. He only started to complain when he started to get outfought and outmaneuvered by Cruz.

    2) When going up against Putin if he were to get outwitted or outfought or outmaneuvered, I expect the President of the US to keep his trap shut, learn what he didn’t know, do better next time.

    Only clowns like Obama whine that it’s all so unfair.

  7. or apparently even know about them

    Your assertion is unjustified. It’s not rocket science.

    He only started to complain…

    Right, when his complaint had some merit. People have been told we’re a democracy (where is the universal correction of this lie?) So there is an expectation that the vote winner is the winner. We know that’s not true. It’s all about the delegates.

    By ‘whining’ Trump is making it an issue just as he’s been leading on all other issues (with his competition trying to jump unsuccessfully to the front of his parade.) People see Cruz as underhanded (regardless of ‘dems da rules’) which motivates them all the more.

    Re: your second point… He could not possibly be more outmaneuvered than the complicit lefties. His argument is it’s time to stop that. So what if he whines? As long as he fights.

      1. Possibly, but it’s not what he’s running on.

        You believe he’s a complete liar, but nobody is that perfect.

        You believe every conservative position he repeatedly and continuously says is a lie. But you already know he’s not that good a liar.

        He’s pro America. That’s what his lefty opponents are angry about and you’ve joined the left (in fact if not ideologically.)

        Yes, he may grow government, but he could (and only he) shrink it.

        1. You believe he’s a complete liar, but nobody is that perfect.

          Your utter failure to read my mind is noted.

          I believe he’ll say whatever he thinks he has to to get what he wants at any given time. There is zero reason (and he’s never even claimed it as a goal) to think that he’d shrink government. He loves government. He just wants to be in charge of it.

          1. he’ll say whatever

            That’s Cruz who has been following Trump’s lead.

            You don’t need to read Trump’s mind. He has made it clear he plans to send many functions back to the states where they should be. If you only listen to sound bite by his detractors you miss that.

          3. “I believe he’ll say whatever he thinks he has to to get what he wants at any given time. There is zero reason (and he’s never even claimed it as a goal) to think that he’d shrink government. He loves government. He just wants to be in charge of it.”

            Well, he keeps saying the same stuff and seems rather stubborn rather than fickle.
            But main issue, it is the Congress which shrinks government- it’s why we have a Congress.
            I guess Trump could veto a bill if there is not enough spending- but he seems rather proud of doing things which are done cheaper and quicker.
            So it seems Trump is going to build the wall- and claims he will finish wall in about 2 years.
            Another thing is getting the couple trillion dollars sitting outside of US.
            Neither has much in terms of costs.
            We got putting embassy in Jerusalem- again not much in terms of costs.
            One thing which could have high cost, he wants a much larger Military. And probably have to increase amount money per soldier to attract the larger military- particularly if want to do this quickly. So that could be a big pile of money.
            Another big pile of money is the US infrastructure- something Obama promised and didn’t deliver- so Trump is tired of living in 3rd world in terms of US infrastructure. So might want things like bullet trains and etc, Or something we already wasted billions on and got nothing. Other things we wasted a lot of money on are things like Yucca Mountain for nuclear waste.
            But in any case, he would need the funding from Congress.

          4. you should be able to provide an example or two.

            1) Eliminate the dept of education (retaining perhaps some minor functions.)

            2) Let the states handle EPA issues.

            He’s hinted at others.

          6. This is from various speeches I’ve heard, not read; so I’m afraid I’ll have to do some searching.

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