A long but very interesting piece on the overconfidence of the incompetent, by David Dunning (of Dunning-Kruger fame). For some reason, I think it has some relevance to the Trump phenomenon, and politics in general.
For the record, I have never had a problem claiming my ignorance on a topic.
Most of the jerks I’ve known have been overconfident. It goes with delusions of infallibility.
Re Trump: Remember the saying by older people of the Jewish persuasion, “Is it good for the Jews?” I have a similar tunnel vision when it comes to elections: “Is he (or she) good for liberty?” Sadly, as the republic speeds along down the road to serfdom, the question is usually: “Is he (or she) better or worse for liberty than the other creep?”
I have my own private gauge, which I call the Bilwick Statist Scale. Imagine a horizontal line, with eleven hash marks, from 0 at one far end to 10 at the other side. 0 represents a kind of undiluted libertarian anarchism of the Robert LeFevre variety. 10 represents total tyranny personified by Mao, Hitler, or whoever you want to name as a real-life counterpart to Orwell’s Big Brother. Let’s put blatant State-shtuppers such as Hillary, Bernie, and Obama at about 7 or an 8. I’m wondering where Trump supporters would put The Donald on that scale. Would he be closer to 10 than Cruz or Rubio? If so, why should we support him?
I’d say Trump is much closer to Obama’s 7 (Hillary’s 8 or 9) than Cruz or Rubio. Rubio’s support of Amnesty isn’t so much a tyranny or statist concern as misguided compassion. However, neither Cruz or Rubio is thinking of (much less trumpeting) the expansion of Libel Law to suppress criticism of political or public people. That Trump wants to do so puts him somewhere higher than 5 or 6. I put Rubio higher than Cruz, since Rubio has supported the kangaroo courts in universities to strip away due process in reviewing allegations of rape or sexual harassment. I think that’s at least 2 points higher than Cruz on the statist scale.
LOL!
Good article but he emphasizes his own point when he references Stephan Lewandowski. Lewandowski is the guy who reckons there is a correlation between us climate skeptics and moon landing hoax believers.
A twofer: Dunning is ignorant and so is Lewandowski.
To be fair, he may not be aware of Lewandowski’ junk science.
I’ve seen too much in the way of conspiracy theories about “warmists” from AGW “skeptics” to not conclude that many “skeptics” are conspiracy theorists.
A logic that baffles those very same conspiracy theorists.
I’ve seen too much in the way of conspiracy theories about “warmists” from AGW “skeptics” to not conclude that many “skeptics” are conspiracy theorists.
A logic that baffles those very same conspiracy theorists.
So what? What was so special about this particular group that we had to fund researchers to tell us how crazy and deluded they are (and conflate them a lot with climate skeptics in general)? It’s not delusional to notice that suddenly there is a considerable interest in the supposed anti-science positions of anyone who questions climate change dogma.
“I’ve seen too much in the way of conspiracy theories about “warmists” from AGW “skeptics” to not conclude that many “skeptics” are conspiracy theorists.”
So you don’t think that the prospect of raking in trillions of dollars in taxes for ‘climate change’ might, you know, lead to some kind of conspiracy to get stinking rich?
Even Adam Smith recognized that conspiracy between members of the same profession was the norm, not a rare aberration. Was he a ‘conspiracy theorist’?
Thank you for making my point about the prevalence of “crazy and deluded”conspiracy theorists and how easy it is to “conflate them a lot with climate skeptics in general”.
Crazy conspiracy theories like all opposition to AGW is really just faked by oil company operatives?
Or what about oil money going to agw activists?https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600940/how-chesapeake-ceo-aubrey-mcclendon-helped-push-coal-to-the-brink/ and http://dailysignal.com/2012/09/28/matt-damons-anti-fracking-movie-financed-by-oil-rich-arab-nation/
There was even a recent case of an AGW researcher engaging in fraud to steer grant money to his family.
The AGW movement is highly corrupt. Even Naomi Klein says it isn’t about the environment but using fear mongering over the environmental apocalypse for political reasons, not scientific.
Crazy conspiracy theories like all opposition to AGW is really just faked by oil company operatives?
Why don’t you just make a straw man?
No one claims that there aren’t lots of skeptics who’re simply motivated by their own political beliefs, no oil money required.
So, after Karl Hallowell correctly points out that we should try not to conflate the crazy and deluded conspiracy theorists with the more stable skeptics your reply is, what? To conflate political AGW activists with the scientific researchers working to understand anthropogenic influences on climate?
I doubt anyone, on either side, apart perhaps from a few lobbyists and perhaps business people trying to cash in, hold their stated views as a result of money. If you’re only going to get a salary out of getting into the debate you ain’t going to get rich from it.
the scientific researchers working [selflessly and heroically] to understand anthropogenic influences on climate
Ahh, so THAT’S what those guys at East Anglia were doing. When I saw those emails it wasn’t clear at first. Thanks for clearing that up.
A lot has happened in the 6 years since the email hack, the context of the half dozen or so comments of the thousands released that were seen as some sort of smoking gun is better understood, the “hockey stick” has been further supported by subsequent research, no further “evidence” of a WW conspiracy has been uncovered and most skeptics recognized this and have now moved on.
That’s two “crazy and deluded”conspiracy theorists now found hiding among the skeptics at TM.
the “hockey stick” has been further supported by subsequent research
And you’re calling us crazy and deluded?? Dude, get a life or something. You’re of course free to continue to bow to the towering symbols of a fading religion, or you can just drop that load of rocks and re-join most of humanity. Your choice.
The article you link to is dated July 7 2013, and states:
California had the “big three” of wind farm locations — Altamont Pass, Tehachapi, and San Gorgonio, considered the world’s best wind sites. California’s wind farms, almost 80% of the world’s wind generation capacity ceased to generate even more quickly than Kamaoa Wind Farm in Hawaii.
And yet amazingly all three of these abandoned wind farms are still generating electricity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_California
(follow the links to each individual facility)
Curt, read this posts title, if you want to avoid being an example, do a little research to check the accuracy of the flaky advocacy sites you like to read.
As for Kamaoa Wind Farm:
In 1987 the Kamaoa Wind Farm began operation with thirty-seven Mitsubishi 250 kW wind turbines with an operationally typical total peak output of 7.5 MW.[22] By 2006 the turbines at 18°59′33″N 155°40′5″W were falling into disrepair, and they were finally shut down on August 15, 2006. At the end of August 2006, components for a new set of wind turbines were transported to South Point. The Pakini Nui project consists of 14 General Electric wind turbines constructed at 18°58′20″N 155°41′21″W, about 1.5 miles (2.4 km) from the old Kamaoa wind farm. Completed in April 2007, Pakini Nui supplies up to 20.5 MW of power to the island electricity grid of Hawaii Electric Light Company.[23] The wind farm is operated by Tawhiri Power, LLC. It is the southernmost wind farm in the United States.[24] The turbines of the old wind farm have been disassembled. (wiki)
So a 9 MW facility has been replaced with a 20MW facility.
No One Paying Attention to 27,000 Abandoned Oil Rigs in the Gulf
A July AP investigation revealed that there are over 27,000 abandoned oil and gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, and that no one is monitoring them. One of these wells was abandoned in 1940, before many of the current regulations were put in place. The report goes on the show that even the current regulations are often ignored.
it is laughable to post a link about 14,000 wind turbines when you consider how many abandoned oil rigs there are.
Lets not even begin to mention all the abandoned oil infrastructure like oil refineries.
No One Paying Attention to 27,000 Abandoned Oil Rigs in the Gulf
Some reports claim “rigs” others say “wells”.
I’m pretty sure it’s “wells”. Oil wells have finite life spans that are shorter than people generally think, when the oil flow from the well becomes uneconomic the well is plugged. the closed well is all on and under the ocean floor, so’s not an eye sore. As far as I know the plugs don’t fail.
Wow, the butt hurt is remarkable. Apparently a whole lot of religious love out there for wind turbines. Who’d a thunk?
Why do they hate birds SO MUCH?
At least they produce green jobs, so they’ve got that going for them. Which is nice.
Why do they hate birds SO MUCH?
I don’t know, but I’ve often wondered why cat owners and car drivers wage such a campaign of annihilation against the avian world, one that kills thousand of times as many birds as wind turbines.
Now there’s real hatred for you.
Wodun @ March 7, 2016 at 1:02 AM
“Crazy conspiracy theories like all opposition to AGW is really just faked by oil company operatives?”
It doesn’t really work, either, because all the major oil companies have come out in favor of “carbon” taxes.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/01/14/conservative-activist-calls-oil-company-support-for-carbon-taxes-a-form-of-cronyism/
Andrew_W @ March 7, 2016 at 2:27 AM
“If you’re only going to get a salary out of getting into the debate you ain’t going to get rich from it.”
The Tobacco Institute scientists didn’t generally get rich off their salaries, either, but they still did it. A steady paycheck can be quite motivating.
AGW doom-mongering pays well. For the leaders, there is a lot of money to be made. James Hanson is a millionaire now. So is this guy. And, who knows about this guy?
James Hanson is a millionaire now. So is this guy. And, who knows about this guy?
Anyone on an average salary who chooses to invest a modest chunk of their income can retire a millionaire, today having a million dollars net worth doesn’t make you rich.
Dunning-Kruger always makes me think of a collections agent on Elm Street.
D-K may have a lot to do with the Trumpkins, but I suspect that the complexity and lack of anything like a clear outcome in government and politics has led a lot of people to think that the best solution is to tear the whole thing down. I’m not sure they care if Trump is competent; they just want him to be destructive enough that they can all rebuild from the rubble in a way that they see fit.
The real ignorance comes in because a lot of people have forgotten what tearing it all down actually entails. Most of the time, other people have different ideas from you on how to rebuild from the rubble, and they’re perfectly happy to shoot you to enforce theirs over yours.
It really is amazing how often Dunning-Kruger seems to come up. To paraphrase the great philosophizer So-crates: “The only true wisdom consists in knowing that you know nothing.”
For the record, I have never had a problem claiming my ignorance on a topic.
Ah-ha.
Was that you being self-mocking?
When you are proven to be in error, how often do you admit it?
Very nice link though.
When you are proven to be in error, how often do you admit it?
Any time I’ve been proven to be in error, but that’s an entirely separate issue from my willingness to admit ignorance on a subject.
I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken.
How do you people explain Trump’s popularity amongst Republicans?How come so many of them are being sucked in by the Dons BS?
Not all of it is BS. Some of us don’t really recognize being in a state of “sucked in”, though the accusation can certainly provide illumination. So thanks for that. It’s more about seeing the party establishment getting dragged kicking and screaming in a more sane direction. Which is both a good thing and entertaining.
In news of the surreal variety, India is asking the WTO to intervene on it’s behalf because the US has increased H-1B visas.
It argues that as a result, some Indians receive unfair treatment compared with Americans in the United States in providing similar services in sectors like computer services.
You really need to have sympathy for all those Indian workers being sucked in to the US and being discriminated against.
Not all Republicans are conservatives. But Trump continues to be able to get a majority of Republicans, anywhere. And he does worse in closed primaries than open ones. Much of his support comes from sincere blue-collar Democrats in open primaries, or from Democrats crossing over to cause mischief.
Possibly you mean “unable”?
Yes, that’s what I mean.
“And he does worse in closed primaries than open ones.”
I suspect that’s more to do with the dreamy eyed, less politically astute rank and file out voting a more astute minority, than mischief makers.
Would I be right in assuming that he does better with a higher voter turn out? (I assume that that’s what you tend to get in open primaries when the heat is up)
Yes. He is bringing in lots of (ignorant) new voters. But a lot of Democrats switched registration in Massachusetts on the day of the primary (which is allowed) to vote for him. I suspect they think Hillary has it in the bag, and doesn’t need their vote until November.
It’s a mistake to believe that Trump supporters are ignorant or fools. And if the “conservatives” that the Tea Party worked so hard to get elected had done ANY blocking of Obama’s foolishness – such as insisting on a budget every year, or no cash for the executive branch, for example – Trump would still just be a reality TV star with inherited wealth, like Kim Kardashian.
Now you know how we feel about Obama. But do Obama fans see through it?
It’s called, go to hell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srGlyFyghRk
Now, answer this. How do you explain Sanders rise amongst Democrats? How come so many of them are being sucked in by the Feel the Bern BS?
Socialism is cool though and the red scare was paranoia just like the notion that Democrats are socialists and want to ban guns.
VDH unloads with both barrels.
For half the week, I live at ground zero of Trump’s so-called poor white support, such as it is in blue California, and half the week I am with his critics on the Stanford campus. Aside from logic and to be crude, class is the chief divide that reveals attitudes about Mr. Trump. “Comprehensive immigration reform” for elites is a catchword that your children are not going to schools with Mexican illegal immigrants, who are not all dreamers but often include at least a few quite dangerous gang members. I know open-borders advocate Mark Zuckerberg’s kids will not enjoy a diverse Redwood City immigrant experience. (Why exactly has he stealthily bought up his surrounding neighborhood and staffed it with private security teams to adjudicate whom he sees while entering and leaving his compound?)
The children of Republican elites do not sit in classes where a quarter of the students do not speak English. When that specter of diversity looms, parents yank their kids and put them in the prep schools of Silicon Valley that are rapidly reaching New England numbers (or maybe better southern academies that followed integration). Their children are not on buses where an altercation between squabbling eight year olds leads to a tattooed parent arriving at your home to challenge you to a fight over “disrespecting” his family name. The establishment Republicans have rarely jogged around their neighborhoods only to be attacked by pit bulls, whose owners have little desire to speak English, much less to cage, vaccinate, or license their dogs. They have never been hit by illegal-alien drivers in Palo Alto. In other words, they do not wish to live anywhere near those who, as a result of an act of love, are desperately poor, here under illegal auspices, and assume California works and should work on the premises of Oaxaca.
But in rural Fresno County it is not uncommon to have been sideswiped and rear-ended by those who fled the scene, leaving their wrecked cars without insurance and registration. I doubt that CNN morning anchors have woken up to an abandoned Crown Victoria in their yard that swerved and went airborne in the night—its driver (who spoke neither Spanish nor English but a dialect of Mixteca Baja) found in the shrubs still sleeping it off.
The police who arrive much later have zero interest in doing much other than lecturing one that the car cannot be sold to pay damages. And the driver most certainly will not be turned over for deportation in a sanctuary county. Just writing all that is, for an elite, proof of one’s xenophobia and nativism. But then again, he is rarely stopped in the Walmart parking lot by a gang-banger in the next parking stall who out of the blue says, “Hey essay, what the f— are you looking at me for already? And what are you going to do about it, punk?” (Are we back to the Old West where the wannabe with a six-shooter declares his nihilism on Main Street and thus his willingness to quick draw anyone?)
In Palo Alto where I work, there is no epidemic of bronze plaque and copper wire thievery, as there is near my home, where everything metal—Romex conduit, the dedicatory plaque at a Masonic temple, or bronze fittings on irrigation pipe—is in danger of being carted off, Vandal-like. I don’t think Mitt Romney has had a dead pit bull, in ripe rigor mortis with a rope tied around its neck, dumped on his lawn, or a beautiful Queensland Heeler, torn to shreds from dog fighting, thrown into his vineyard. Does the Gang of Eight ever get accosted in the evening by a group of tattooed thugs, claiming at your door they “are lost,” as they case your rural home? Or were they dreamers and future UC brain surgeons incognito?
Ask a citizen voter a simple question: If you invent a false Social Security number, and create an alias for the DMV, and lie on federal documents, will you be subject to indictment? If you arrive at an airport without a passport, will they wave you through as an act of love? I suggest you try it sometime—your version of crossing the southern border illegally.
Who does and does not have to follow the law—only U.S. citizens?
Rand,
Dunning quotes Lewandowsky and a guy at the University of Western Australia approvingly. I strongly suspect he knows what Lewandowsky did. Mr L was previously at UWA and maybe I’m a little sensitive as I am a graduate of UWA.
They are the folks BTW who knocked back Bjorn Lomborg as they didn’t like his views on climate change. FWIW he is a believer but thinks adaptation is the way to go and the downside not as bad as the warmunists claim.