How he caught the West off guard.
To be fair, though, that “stupid” Sarah Palin saw him coming.
31 thoughts on “Putin”
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How he caught the West off guard.
To be fair, though, that “stupid” Sarah Palin saw him coming.
Comments are closed.
And that stoopid Romney.
I think the answer is fairly simple. Just make a statement that in case of invasion of NATO by Russia the retaliation will be done with nuclear weapons. As for Ukraine I think the Russians are going to split it into two. The East where most of the heavy industry is and the West which is mostly farmland. The West will fall into the European Union sphere and the East will fall into their Eurasian Union sphere.
NATO countries should have been sending food and medicine to Ukraine for quite some time now. As for weapons support Ukraine has a large weapons industry. They don’t need small or heavy weapons. They have many in their boneyards that they aren’t using as it is and new weapons systems would require extensive training time. What they might need is things like modern night fighting equipment.
“I think the answer is fairly simple. Just make a statement that in case of invasion of NATO by Russia the retaliation will be done with nuclear weapons.”
The problem with that is that you MUST be willing to follow through. If your bluff is called, you have to launch nukes against Russia. Think Russia won’t notice? Think Russia doesn’t have ICBM’s?
And if you do not follow through you’ve just opened the door to wholesale capture of anything Putin wants.
It’s a ludicrous answer.
Read history……
We used to believe that could be the answer – in the 1950’s that was our response…until we realized that a nuke-only threat leaves is with no options. We came to understand that the US and it’s allies needs a variety of responses for differnt situations. There is no one size fits all answer.
Nukes were our response to the Soviet nukes. No one thought they were a solution to, say, Vietnam or Korea.
We don’t need that threat today and shouldn’t consider it.
Were Vietnam or Korea members of NATO at the time?
Godzilla’s suggestion was in response to an invasion of a NATO country.
Gregg brought up a good point though, whatever your method of deterrent, you have to be able to actually make good on your claims. We already had an agreement with Ukraine that we would protect them in a situation just like this one in exchange for them giving up their nukes.
When we make commitments, we have to stand by them. Why would South Korea, Taiwan, or Iraq believe our promises to help when it is needed when our President has shown that no agreement is binding and that when things get tough, when our help is needed most, that we will not be there?
Here’s a helpful hint:
Read up on “Flexible Response”,
If Russia invaded NATO right now it wouldn’t work. Flexible response requires that you have the organic structures to implement it. In the context of European disarmament and the USA spreading their forces across the globe in several campaigns it isn’t enforceable. You need to use the nuclear option.
I’m saying this because the next step could be Russia invading a Baltic country part of NATO. Ukraine is a separate matter. They will get aid but actual military intervention by the USA or NATO is basically not on the table.
It was Putin who didn’t see the Ukrainian turn to the West coming, or the fall in oil prices. Things haven’t been going his way.
Putin has invaded Ukraine in the hopes of weakening Europe and the Atlantic Community; the best riposte is for the West to work collaboratively to strengthen them.
Yup. A good piece.
“Things haven’t been going his way.”
Is that so?
Who now owns half of Ukraine and all of Crimea – where he didn’t a year or so ago?
Twenty-five years ago Ukraine was ruled from Moscow. Two years ago Ukraine was firmly in Russia’s orbit. Now 3/4 of it wants to join NATO and the EU. That’s a huge setback for Russia and Putin, and there’s no easy way for him to reverse it. He can take Eastern Ukraine by force, but that only pushes the rest even more firmly into the West’s arms. He could conquer all of Ukraine if he wanted — we aren’t going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine — but that’d be a disaster for Russia as well as Ukraine. Our top priorities should be helping Ukraine build a decent government and economy, and letting Putin gradually accept this enormous strategic setback.
there’s no easy way for him to reverse it.
And yet: “Who now owns half of Ukraine and all of Crimea – where he didn’t a year or so ago?”
Seems like a reversal, no? May not be easy, but Putin is still succeeding.
Putin is still succeeding
By that logic Brezhnev was succeeding when the Red Army invaded Afghanistan. In fact he was sowing the seeds of future disaster, in a desperate and hopeless attempt to keep a client border state from slipping away.
“In fact he was sowing the seeds of future disaster”
Why? Had America not got involved, Afghanistan could have turned out much different. And you are now advocating America to not get involved.
History is littered with examples of countries conquering territory and not going extinct because of it.
“He could conquer all of Ukraine if he wanted — we aren’t going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine”
Yes, everyone knows this. Our agreement to protect Ukraine means nothing in Obama’s eyes, who views all presidential actions or agreements between our country and others that happened before he was President as being illegitimate.
“and letting Putin gradually accept this enormous strategic setback.”
C’mon now. Russia isn’t having a set back. Just because Obama wants to believe that there are separatists rather than Russian soldiers doesn’t mean we have to believe that lie. When Putin takes over large chunks of other countries, it is only a set back for our leadership and interests.
It is amazing how you guys spin victory in Iraq as defeat and defeat in Ukraine as victory.
Our agreement to protect Ukraine means nothing in Obama’s eyes
Do you favor our going to war with Russia in order to protect Ukraine? If you were in the Oval Office, would you give that order?
We don’t have to go to war with Russia because Putin has boxed himself in. It’s just separatists don’t you know? Putin denies any Russian regulars are fighting.
So we give military aid to Poland. We can’t help what the Poles do with it.
“Do you favor our going to war with Russia in order to protect Ukraine?”
I am always in favor of living up to our obligations. That doesn’t mean we have to go to war but our response isn’t adequate. Obama pushing the fiction that there are rebels rather than Russian troops isn’t living up to our obligations.
Ukraine is already at war with Russia. We could help them. We could use our diplomacy to get other countries to help them. But Obama is incapable of diplomacy and incapable of warfare. He just sucks at everything but persecuting political dissidents and dictating laws at home.
Let’s be fair: it was Tina Fey who saw Russia from Sarah Palin’s house. 😉
+1
It was Putin who didn’t see the Ukrainian turn to the West coming, or the fall in oil prices. Things haven’t been going his way.
No offense, but the former was obvious and I see no evidence that he didn’t anticipate it. The latter has been a real problem for him, but a temporary one. IMHO, if he can last through this period of low prices, oil prices will go up again.
I don’t think they’ll ever get back up to where they were.
That depends on how elastic our production is in comparison with OPEC and other oil producers.
“Just make a statement that in case of invasion of NATO by Russia the retaliation will be done with nuclear weapons.” Noooo! This is all nuts. We are not in the Cold War any more! Let Europe worry about it; why is it our national interest to have this “entangling alliance”?
From the article: “one of Putin’s goals is to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe. We can and should make clear to him that this isn’t going to happen.”
Why? Is there a rational explanation for why we would do this, or is just a knee-jerk recollection of the Cold War?
“We are not in the Cold War any more! ”
Uh huh. We may not be in a Cold War™ but Russia is still our adversary. They constantly throw sand in our gears.
“Why? Is there a rational explanation for why we would do this”
Are you saying we should abandon our allies in Europe? The Pax Americana has been rather good for Europe, and by extension, ourselves. I am all for Europe shouldering a greater share of the burden but a total disengagement is foolish.
Putin knows how to eat an elephant. Every bite is making him stronger. He will continue until he is stopped and as he and his generals will continue to remind us, he has nukes (which aren’t for use, but for pause of actions we might consider.)
People that are willing to stand up to him must be supported as effectively as we can. We should be having private discussions with all that can contribute which includes all border nations.
Stupid people understand this, our ‘leaders’ don’t. It is the game of highlander… eventually there can be only one.
We win, they lose, is the only option.
Totally not true. He is absolutely not a threat to us. He is not even a threat to the main European countries. He has a border dispute with a few countries next to him. You are dreaming this up, based on a Soviet Union that no longer exists.
The world has a lot of thuggish countries. Very few of them are existential threats of the type you are imagining. We don’t need to react to every one like WWII.
Worry about ISIL; they are doing the kinds of things that you are imagining of Putin.
“He is absolutely not a threat to us.”
Well, that is wrong. Russia is an adversarial competitor of ours and no matter what you think Russia has a say in things.
“He has a border dispute with a few countries next to him.”
These are not border disputes. These are territorial disputes where Russia wants the territory controlled by other countries.
“Very few of them are existential threats of the type you are imagining.”
There are differences between threats and existential threats. You can deal with threats prior to them becoming existential. Why wait until your very survival is at stake before dealing with a problem?
He is absolutely not a threat to us.
Just wow. He’s a chess player and knows how the game is played. His intention are out in the open. He is weak, so must play for time while growing stronger. He is accomplishing exactly that. “He’s not a threat” plays right into his game.
He’s not the only threat.
He is weak, so must play for time while growing stronger.
Where is this strength going to come from? His country is running on the fumes of former greatness; as Joseph Nyeput it:
Russia still has a tremendous oil and gas reserves, a huge army, and nukes; it can still do a lot of harm. But the trend lines are negative. George H.W. Bush and James Baker’s great triumph was to help Russian leaders accept the loss of the Soviet empire without striking out. That sort of letting-Russia-down-gently remains the great challenge for the U.S. and Europe. The first step is recognizing that Putin’s aggressive stance, while psychologically and politically important to his domestic audience, is a mask for weakness.
” is a mask for weakness.”
Uh huh. Up is down. Right is left. Blue is yellow. Victory is defeat and defeat is victory.
Any prediction about countries based on demographics and other trends is to be taken with a bath tub of salt.
“That sort of letting-Russia-down-gently remains the great challenge for the U.S. and Europe.”
Ya, except that our current leaders are incapable. Obama and his staff don’t understand Russia. But I guess for you, letting Russia down gently means letting them conquer parts of Europe in the hopes they will be content some day a hundred years from now.
Where is this strength going to come from?
He doesn’t have to be stronger than us. He only has to be stronger than the bites he takes while keeping us pacified.
He is stronger with the ports and ship maintenance in Sevastopol which also gives winter access to the oceans.
He’s stronger with the resources and industry of eastern Ukraine than without.
He’s stronger with access to the Black Sea which his permanent occupation of Georgia gives him.
Every bite makes him stronger and he only has to be strong enough to become stronger still.
Demographic trends being against him makes him more dangerous, not less.