18 thoughts on “The SpaceX Launch”

  1. Anyone have any idea why, if they can’t launch tomorrow, they have to stand down until Feb 20th?

    All I know for sure is the answer isn’t orbital mechanics/launch window issues.

      1. I was originally thinking that, but, in this case, what other launches? The next one on the manifest is Feb 27th, and it’s SpaceX. The next non-spaceX launch from the cape is an Atlas on March 12th. So, my guess was it must be some other reason.

        Caveat; I may have been flat out wrong on my orbital mechanics assertion. It’s been mentioned to me that the position of the moon might be the reason. I totally neglected to consider what that might do regarding the spacecraft’s post-sep maneuvers to L1. I’ll see if I can find out.

        1. I don’t know for sure, but that’s exactly what I’ve been thinking. If the spacecraft has to pass the moon on the way to L1, it could affect its trajectory. I’d suspect that a launch to L1 needs to happen when the moon is out of the way.

          2. Well no authority on the matter but imagine it is a combination of factors. But imagine the moon maybe one of them . To get to L1, the probe has to go towards the sun, right now the moon is waning/ last quarter of the moon tomorrow , so wouldn’t the proximity of the gravity well have a effect on the orbit. The 20th happens to be 2 days after the new moon. So the phase of the moon that delaying the launch skips is the 275°-5° (With 0° as “new moon”). Would imagine the transfer orbit/initial orbits to L1 would be passing thru this region near the moons orbital distance at some point and possibly multiple times over the first 10 days. Or the moons gravity not that big of a effect at the distances?

  2. Anyway, nice job tonight. They had upper-level winds that were unacceptable, called a no-go at the T-13 polling, then stopped the count. No drama, and very professional.

    (Although I’ve very much enjoyed some of the SpaceX cliffhanger countdowns.) 🙂

  3. I know launch windows are heavily dictated by the plane of the intended orbit. For a rendezvous in LEO orbital phasing can be made in orbit, though it takes time. Going beyond LEO the same can work if you have the delta-V budget for a LEO parking orbit. If the flight plan involves a slingshot around the moon that dictates the timing for injection into the transfer orbit.

  4. This is very cool:

    45th Space Wing, SpaceX sign first-ever landing pad agreement at Cape Canaveral

    LC-13 was one of the four original Atlas launch pads. It saw service from 1958-1978. At first it was used for ICBM testing, and in August 1958 Atlas 4B launched from there. It was the first full-range Atlas flight. Later the pad was adapted for Atlas-Agena, and all five Lunar Orbiters were launched from there in 1966-67. Those lunar mapping missions were a crucial precursor to Apollo, and the astronauts studied those photos to familiarize themselves with lunar landmarks. After that, it was used for launching military and NRO satellites.

    1. Sounds good but I wouldn’t be surprised if ULA gets pissy about it. Even if so far the Florida launch site has been less problematic than Vandenberg was back when Falcon 1 was around.

      Had SpaceX not had the Kwajalein launch site they could have not validated Falcon 1 and the Merlin engine and hence would have no chance to do the Falcon 9.

      I think it is a good idea for them to pursue the Brownsville launch site just to prevent issues like that from happening in the future.

  5. I’m an aerospace guy, but not a rocket guy — Can somebody explain to me why high level winds are a big deal? I don’t understand why we can fly a sixty-year-old C-130 into a cat 5 hurricane but we can’t launch a modern spacecraft if there’s a little wind?

    1. Launch vehicles don’t have a lot of strength in bending moments. Wind shear could tear them apart. Beefing up the structure for shear would sacrifice a lot of payload. Better to just wait for better weather.

      1. Thanks, Rand. Hopefully someday we’ll have propulsion tech that won’t require us to use tall hollow tubes full of gas to get to space, eh?

  6. Has anyone ever put together a list of all launch scrubs and totaled them up by category? I wonder what is the top two or three reasons for launch scrubs?

    Depending upon the results, one might find cost savings as a scrubbed launch – though wise as in this case – ins’t cheap.

    1. I’m pretty sure most scrubs fall into these categories:

      1. Problems with the rocket.
      2. Problems with the payload.
      3. Problems with the launch range.
      4. Weather problems.

      Numbers 1and 4 are probably the most common.

      2. Actually what I asked was how the totals worked out. Your categories might be right but what I wonder is if we know the top 3 or 4 causes and the percent each cause generates.

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