4 thoughts on “Planetary Boundaries, Tipping Points”
Yeah, well, people always want to jump on the exotica bandwagon. In actual fact, the global temperature anomaly has been very regular and smooth since the time that temperature readings can be considered to be at least moderately accurate. Things haven’t really changed in at least 135 years – there is a trend of about 0.75 degC/century and a ~60 year cyclic component of about 0.4 degC peak to peak.
If the pattern continues, the likely forecast is for a small decline by 2020, followed by stasis until 2040, followed by a resumed upward trend until the 2060’s. All natural. All laid in long before humans could have been having any impact.
Robert Zimmerman tracks the sun spot cycles over at, Behind the Black . It is always interesting because NASA changes their predictions after the fact to closer align with the number of observed sunspots.
No one predicted the double peak from the current cycle. Who knows what the next cycle will bring?
How stupid are carbon credits in light of the sun’s life? It’s going to get bigger and hotter, but a long time from now. One day mars will be in the temperate zone. Things change. Let’s all panic for no reason.
Yeah, well, people always want to jump on the exotica bandwagon. In actual fact, the global temperature anomaly has been very regular and smooth since the time that temperature readings can be considered to be at least moderately accurate. Things haven’t really changed in at least 135 years – there is a trend of about 0.75 degC/century and a ~60 year cyclic component of about 0.4 degC peak to peak.
If the pattern continues, the likely forecast is for a small decline by 2020, followed by stasis until 2040, followed by a resumed upward trend until the 2060’s. All natural. All laid in long before humans could have been having any impact.
I think Hathaway’s “Sunspot Prediction” graph of Cycle 22, 23 and the current 24 is very telling:
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/Cycle22Cycle23Cycle24big.gif
Robert Zimmerman tracks the sun spot cycles over at, Behind the Black . It is always interesting because NASA changes their predictions after the fact to closer align with the number of observed sunspots.
No one predicted the double peak from the current cycle. Who knows what the next cycle will bring?
How stupid are carbon credits in light of the sun’s life? It’s going to get bigger and hotter, but a long time from now. One day mars will be in the temperate zone. Things change. Let’s all panic for no reason.