An interview with Joel Garreau. Not sure I agree with this:
Boomer octogenarians in 2030 have “too many hard miles on their chassis” to fully benefit, but younger people may have trouble imagining the onetime prevalence of sickness and death.
I won’t be quite that old, but I think that there’s a good possibility that even for octo/nonoganerians there will be potential reversal of damage, and rejuvenation by then. And current government policies based on Scenario 1 (i.e., pretty much business as usual) are doomed to bankruptcy.
Also, he’s assuming that we’ll always be dependent upon biological bodies for existence, and specifically that one biological body each of us is issued at birth. As Moore’s Law marches on, we may soon have the processors and chipsets to support human consciousness, leading to the first post-biological human beings (assuming of course that there’s nothing about the biological brain that is critical to human consciousness and there’s not a supernatural soul that’s inamenable to computation). Now that is going to have some truly interesting effects on the medical situation, not to mention the legal.
I would guess by the 2030’s we should have 3-D printers capable of printing new organs, joints, eyes, ear cochlea etc. using our on cells. That should easily add a few decades of life expectancy by itself. Understand it may also be true that rapamycin therapy combined with metformin both drugs available now might add a decade or more to mean life expectancy.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22429894.000-everyday-drugs-could-give-extra-years-of-life.html?full=true#.VE77J7HD-Ul