19 thoughts on “Ukraine”

  1. Putin doesn’t have to be a genius. He only has to be consistent and persistent.

    For evil to win, good just has to do nothing. Or many things in an inconsistent manner.

    1. I agree with your second para, but not your first. At least the “consistent” part. As for “genius,” he’s got Obama’s number and that’s all he needs.

      I’d call Putin’s army a “paper tiger,” but with the vacuum of leadership the West is showing it is more than enough.

      “Who dares, wins.”

      1. The Russian army modernized a lot since the late 90s. Proof of that is the successful 2nd Chechnya War and the Georgian War. It is far away from NATO standard issue but it is nothing to sneeze at.

        Meanwhile NATO does not have troops near where it matters. After the end of the Cold War most of the forces in the eastern front were dissolved.

        1. Apparently we have T-72s we could supply but not to the Ukraine which would be giving them to Putin. We need to be supporting Poland and others before it’s too late. A different administration might still be in a position to support the Ukraine but not this one.

  2. Precisely. Putin is a blundering thug, but because of the massive incompetence in leadership of the west he gets away with it. It wouldn’t take much to curtail his influence and power, but to do it well would require intelligence, sophistication, and a thorough understanding of regional geopolitics. All of which are lacking in this administration and at the state department.

  3. Putin is certainly no genius – but he doesn’t have to be. He’s essentially, via planning and a little luck, created a win-win situation for Russia in Ukraine. Basically, he’s won by not being stupid.

    Now, if he was truly stupid, he’d be blathering about climate change as the #1 forign policy threat Russia faces, and ignoring golden opportunities next door because “the world doesn’t work that way anymore”. He’d also be ignoring Russia’s interests in favor of some delusional internationalist vision.

    Oh, he’d also announce defense cuts during a crisis.

    But, Putin isn’t a drooling moron so he’s not doing any of those things. Instead, he’s advancing what he sees as Russia’s interests. He’s got a golden opportunity, because he’s like the neighborhood their who’s noticed that the local cop is an utter bumbling imbecile.

    Doing absolutely nothing would actually be a far preferable US strategy than what we’ve been doing (empty threats and vacillation, plus projecting profound incompetence.)

      1. A 5 degree warmer world would be very good for Russia, it would make siberia a breadbasket
        and turn murmansk and Archangel into warm water ports, plus make the arctic ocean a russian sea.

        One could argue that it would be simple for the russians to pay climate deniers in order to
        help drive this change.

  4. I think Putin is taking unnecessary chances, to be honest. The U.S. right now is rather toothless, but it may not be the next administration. And this aggressive behavior might provoke Europe into building up its military capacity and maybe looking for oil alternatives. The latter isn’t some hugely impossible feat, as they weren’t getting their oil from Russia all that long ago.

    2. Unnecessary for what? The port of Sevastopol was incredibly important to him including the ship maintenance facilities and labor skills there. Earlier the west was happy to go along with his lie that Georgia started it even though logistics were in motion before he took those two provinces away. Like the Crimea they are now a permanent part of new Russia meaning he can take the rest of Georgia anytime he wants.

      The places in the near abroad that Putin has his eyes on have had Russians living there for decades… just for the purpose of annexation. We have problems dealing with news cycles.

      East Ukraine gives him manufacturing that he doesn’t have now. His military may not be up to our standards but can roll across anything they are likely to face. Especially since what they face is old equipment they sold to them. Any military support we give to the Ukraine is like to become Putin’s.

      Putin may overplay his hand but without taking chances he doesn’t get the spoils. Our feckless response only emboldens him.

    3. this aggressive behavior might provoke Europe into building up its military capacity

      Besides Poland everyone seems to be doing a lot of nothing. No one else wants to increase military expenses at this time. I doubt it will end well.

      maybe looking for oil alternatives

      You mean alternatives to Russian natural gas? Those have been talked for yonks but in the end they never put their money where their mouth is. The pipeline to Nigeria was canceled because it was too expensive and now the place is a warzone since it is chock full of anti-Gaddafi partisans including Al-Qaeda. Nabucco was cancelled and the source of gas, Turkmenistan, sold the gas that was supposed to be send through it to China.

      Russia has also been diversifying their client base by building a natural gas pipeline to China which started pumping gas a couple months ago and is due to have a doubling of its capacity increase. So if Europe boycotts Russian natural gas they will still be able to find willing customers in the Far East.

      The only good alternative IMO is to allow fracking in the EU and start doing exploration of those resources there. Once again Poland seems to be up to it but few others are. The French, which supposedly have good reserves, are steadfast against it with the argument they do not need it because they have nuclear power. Yet at the same time they cut back on new reactor construction and are building windmills which require natural gas peaking plants. That will be interesting.

    4. “I think Putin is taking unnecessary chances, to be honest. ”

      He’s taking calculated and reasonable risks. That’s how you win.

      “The U.S. right now is rather toothless, but it may not be the next administration. ”

      However for the next 2 years, he can make some serious and important gains. He’s getting while the getting is good. Feck-free Western leaders have sprinkled pixie dust all over thinking that no one wants anything, and is willing to take it, any more.

      “And this aggressive behavior might provoke Europe into building up its military capacity and maybe looking for oil alternatives.”

      Putin is not worried about a resugent Verhmacht nor is he worried about the Poilu’s rolling East. He does not fear a new Roman Empire, and even if the UK wanted to do something, Western Europe would prevent them.

      ” The latter isn’t some hugely impossible feat, as they weren’t getting their oil from Russia all that long ago.”

      There’s the calculated risk. But energy has always been fungible and I assume Putin considers the leverage his gas lines give him to be temporary.

      But suppose NATO dissolves as a serious military and political entity (even if the husk still exists in Brussels) because Putin decides to expose it for the travesty that it is – for all the world to see?
      Suppose he convinces countries like Poland that they really CANNOT rely on the Feck-Free West to help them?

      Wouldn’t that be worth control of the gas line?

      As for the main topic:

      No Putin is not a genius but I can’t think of many leaders who were. Hitler, Stalin, Tojo, FDR, Truman, Ike, Ho Chi Min, DeGaulle, Thatcher, Reagan – none of these people were geniuses.

      But the successful ones saw opportunity, knew how to measure risk, mitigate it’s chances and effects, and go for it.

      That’s what you are seeing now.

  5. I note that we are plannign war games with Poland and……….

    Estonia.

    This is a good move. Not nearly enough but good.

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