37 thoughts on “Putin’s Cold Hard Facts”

1. Putin is going to be more aggressive as long as he sees our inaction. This admin and possibly the next is going to do nothing that impacts Putin’s decisions.

   1. Putin is an Elvis level rockstar to Russians living in the ‘near abroad’ and he’s just demonstrated that’s all the justification he needs.

2. There are several LNG seaport terminals in Europe already. The thing is Europe pays less for natural gas than countries in Asia like China. Most of the gas produced in the US that gets exported goes to Asia. Natural gas transport by sea is more expensive than pipeline transport. That was one reason behind the Nabucco pipeline proposal. The other was to spring out the ex-Soviet republics in the Caspian Sea away from Russian influence. The Trans-Saharan gas pipeline to Nigeria is also stalled because of Al-Qaeda presence in southern Algeria.

   There are plenty of shale deposits in Europe which are not getting explored at the moment. For the Baltic nations the answer IMO is more nuclear power in their energy mix similar to what Finland has been doing.

   I agree that NATO needs more armored units present nearer the Russian sphere of influence and Poland is as good a place as any to station them.

   As for the Keystone pipeline extension it will get built. Even if this little episode never happened the economics clearly favor its construction.

   1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline

      In fact they opened up the connection to the Gulf last January.

   2. This administration doesn’t know or care about economics. It will get built, but maybe not before 2017.

   3. Gas is somewhat fungible. Cost variation usually comes from processing either from liquefaction for export or gasification at import facility. Certainly, pipeline is cheaper than shipping either maritime or rail, but supposedly cheap gas would make the rich richer, so we can’t have it. But that new export facility in Sabine Pass would have a much easier time sending its gas to Europe than Asia, and that gas would be from the US, not Canada. Alas, much of it would be from Eagle Ford and would make Texans and Cajuns richer, so we can’t have it.

3. NATO needs more armored units present

   It takes decades to get enough force prepositioned which is why you never let your guard down. I’m wondering if we still have our nuclear landmines in place?

   1. I spotted a weird news story a couple of weeks back about some upgrade to the air delivered nuclear free fall bombs i.e. tactical nuclear weapons. I do not know why they funded it, considering the rest of the US nuclear arsenal seems to be ignored all the time, but it seemed awfully appropriate.

      http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140206/DEFREG02/302060033/Pentagon-Completes-Nuclear-Weapon-Upgrade-Test
      http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/significant-alterations-seen-updated-b-61-bomb/

4. ” Open federal lands to natural gas “fracking” and start shipping gas to Europe. Undermining Russian gas sales is a real economic sanction. ”

   aside from the proponent here being utterly ignorant of Gas market reality, it’s a wonderful idea.

   Nat Gas prices in Asia are 40% higher then in Europe, so, adding to US production and then export
   capacity, will result in cheaper gas in Asia.

   Europe is a market broken into segments, the Need for gas in Europe is in Eastern Europe,
   not western europe and the pipelines are all one way. Europe lacks a continent wide distribution network
   and the capacity to move that much gas east.

   I suppose You could pack LNG tankers and send them through the dardanelles, land them in Crimea and
   pump gas to Eastern Europe. That would show Putin.

   1. Europe lacks a continent wide distribution network and the capacity to move that much gas east.

      That’s why I said we need a Marshall Plan to fix that, you moron.

      1. What is it about right-wingers, you all love investing into foreign countries, wether it’s Universal
         Health Care for Iraqi’s or a Marshall Plan for Europe, but damn talk about spending a buck
         here, and it’s socialism and deficit spending.

         Let me get this right, you want to Deficit Spend to invest into Europe’s Energy Infra-structure?

         When did you become the Mayor of Paris?

         1. What is it about morons, that they all love making moronic comments about “right wingers”? Whatever the hell they are. Mitt Romney certainly wasn’t one.

            1. So the Marshall Plan in current year dollars was $100 Billion.
               You are demanding the American TaxPayers pay $100 Billion
               to build new energy infrastructure in Europe?

               When did it become Right Wing policy to only invest into Job Creation in Europe?

               You all have to start worrying about America.

            2. I don’t know what a Right Wing policy is, you moron. A hundred billion is a drop in the bucket compared to what Obama has squandered over the past half decade on his cronies.

            3. “What is it about right-wingers, you all love investing into foreign countries, wether it’s Universal
               Health Care for Iraqi’s or a Marshall Plan for Europe, but damn talk about spending a buck
               here, and it’s socialism and deficit spending.”

               While it wasn’t explicitly stated, we expect the Yerpeen countries to contribute heavily to the financing of such projects. The EU is a big entity.

               2) “Universal health care for Iraqis” is a thoroughly ignorable strawman.

               3) We actually get something in return for this sort of investment as opposed to Leftie unicorn fantasies we have to deal with here at home.

            4. You know, Obama had near dictatorial power in Iraq and Afghanistan and he could have shown the world how superior his ideology was by testing out Obamacare and his other progressive ideas in those countries.

         2. So, were George Marshall or Harry Truman “right wingers,” Mr. Moron?

            1. Your Right Wing Friends would call them Commies.

      2. “I don’t know what a Right Wing policy is, you moron. A hundred billion is a drop in the bucket compared to what Obama has squandered over the past half decade on his cronies.”

         So, why don’t you get some of your hillbilly fans to get Mitch McConnell to vote in a $100 Billion
         dollar infrastructure program in France?

         1. I didn’t know I had any “hillbilly fans,” other than you.

5. Who could have possibly imagined this?

   Moscow signals concern for Russians in Estonia

   Moscow signals concern for Russians in Estonia
   By Robert Evans
   GENEVA Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:03pm EDT

   “(Reuters) – Russia signaled concern on Wednesday at Estonia’s treatment of its large ethnic Russian minority, comparing language policy in the Baltic state with what it said was a call in Ukraine to prevent the use of Russian.
   ………………….
   Russia fully supported the protection of the rights of linguistic minorities, a Moscow diplomat told the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva, according to a summary of the session issued by the U.N.’s information department.

   “Language should not be used to segregate and isolate groups,” the diplomat was reported as saying. Russia was “concerned by steps taken in this regard in Estonia as well as in Ukraine,” the Moscow envoy was said to have added.”

   http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-russia-estonia-idUSBREA2I1J620140319

6. How about we send these Viking warriors (Norwegian NATO troops singing Kosovo Song)

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6-nmgPZ_7Y

   1. They are a bit more Viking like in, Armadillo.

      1. Armadillo

7. An honest “Every possible opportunity” in the energy sector.

   1) Tell the dam busters “No, you can’t tear down any new dams until your organization constructs replacement kW dedicated to offset the specific dam you want destroyed. And no, it can’t be retroactive.”

   2) Tell the warming zealots the same thing WRT coal and gasoline plants – point out the only hope to do this would be nukes.

   3) Research prizes for best designs for converting methane to other plausible hydrocarbons. Ethanol has some issues … but how hard is propanol or butanol? Many of the “cleanliness” benefits of running off natural gas should also be true if you up-converted it. (Low sulfur).

   4) Open Yucca Mountain.

   …

   1. Forget Yucca Mountain. Unlock nuclear fuel recycling to reduce long term waste and stretch the fuel stockpile. And get the department of no energy out of the way of new safer reactor technology.

      1. I was under the impression that the French solved the nuclear waste problem to the extent that they could store years of reprocessed waste into a shoe box (exaggerating a little). Is that the case?

8. “If Obama was really serious about his “phone and pen” there are things that are entirely within his power to do.”

   Everyone who gives advice about how Obama could counter Putin seems to think that Obama is on the same page as they are. Given his background, I don’t think he is. I don’t think he minds what is happening in Russia, or for that matter, the Middle East (unless it involves pushing back Israel).

   1. I said, “if.”

9. I think Americans should give as much support to Europe in this as Europe has given to America in the past few decades. I.E. None, other than to berate the Europeans as cave dwelling neanderthals, every time they take action to resolve the situation.
   Karma is a bitca.

   1. You don’t necessarily do this for weenies who won’t help us. You do it to discourage further aggression.

   2. Dear Joe,

      On September 12, 2001, less than 24 hours after the attacks, and for the first time in NATO’s history, the NATO Allies invoked Article 5: ““The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all …”

      As, more or less, a direct result, eight years later Estonians Eerik Salmus and Raivi Kang died after their patrol came under attack while clearing explosives from a road at Nad-e-Ali in southern Helmand province. Both were 26 years old.

      Out of 3,393 coalition deaths in Afghanistan, 1,106 were not from the US — most of these were from our European allies.

10. So, while Kerry blathers about the end of the Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere, the Putin Doctrine goes from strength to strength in the former USSR’s area of influence

11. And by the way, all of you who think Russia taking one or more of the Baltics is impossible because you run in circles screaming “Article 5! Article 5!”…..

    well you simply haven’t been paying attention. Putin is not an idiot and he’s not going to take Estonia by massing troops on the border and invading as if it was Poland 1939.

    He will have Estonia ask HIM (not NATO) for help. There will be riots and government takeovers (or attempts at such) . r some other non-direct confrontation he’s thought of that I haven’t. There will be rigged referendums to leave NATO. Once that happens – game over.

    Now if NATO has any moxie left, they will pre-empt Putin and send troops into the problem area, once rumblings begin. Maybe they will.

12. VDH does it again. This is an extremely wise paragraph (though I recommend you read the whole thing):

    “Deterrence is an art, not a science. And it is transitory, often psychological, and as easily lost as it is hard to regain. Weak states invade others with strong backers because they are not deterred and feel they can get away with it—and thereby become stronger by their sheer success. If they fail, it is usually because they or their intended targets had originally misjudged relative power. Some sort of hostilities then ensue to correct those inaccurate initial appraisals. Peace follows when everybody again knows who was truly weak and who was strong in the first place.”

    http://www.hoover.org/publications/defining-ideas/article/171246

    And what this means for all you bow-tied bespeckled bum-kissing, plaid onsie-wearing, birkenstocked, lefty socialist, peace-at-any-price, can’t we just all get along, appeasers is:

    Nations will constantly test other nations to see how they stack on the weak-strong scale. There is no such thing as “21st century” thinking vs 19th as John Effing Kerry and Obama would like you to think.

    1. You seem very interested in clothing, not that there is anything wrong with that.

13. Somebody who believes in Libertarian policy would view this as the free market in effect.

    Rand appears to be calling for massive state action to change the european
    energy market.

    A real free market would view any supply problems from the Ukraine as
    a cost of doing business.

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