It’s in danger of collapsing.
I’d say it’s collapsed. As Glenn often says, another Jimmy Carter was a best-case scenario in terms of foreign policy.
10 thoughts on “The American-Saudi Alliance”
Comments are closed.
It’s in danger of collapsing.
I’d say it’s collapsed. As Glenn often says, another Jimmy Carter was a best-case scenario in terms of foreign policy.
Comments are closed.
it appears you value the American-saudi relationship. The US has a relationship with
Israel. If Israel and Saudi-Arabia were to come into an active bitter conflict, which
relationship should be the priority with the US?
Well, that’s a stupid question. Not surprising, though, considering the source.
There are no stupid question, just stupid people asking the best questions they can think of.
Here is an equally ridiculous question about an equally likely scenario.
If France or Britain and Germany were to come into an active bitter conflict (as has happened in the past), which relationship should be the priority with the US?
One hardly needs to “value” the erstwhile U.S.-Saudi relationship to note that its current collapse cannot be laid anywhere except at Barack Obama’s feet; quite embarrassing for one who came into office on a cloud of gauzy platitudes about radically improving America’s standing in the Islamic world. As for the Saudis and Israel, the former have been engaged in a low-level conflict with the latter for decades. But Israel has no incentive to pick any fresh fight with the Saudis and the reverse is even more true. The House of Saud understands that the existential threat to its continued rule is Iran, not Israel. Iran is pushing at maximum chat toward nuclear weapons capability. It may well achieve this sometime during the remainder of the rudderless Obama administration. After the ludicrous mess Obama made of U.S. policy anent Syria, the Saudis correctly perceive that the U.S. is no longer to be counted on for backing against a nuclear-armed Iran. The only other place they can go, in the short term, for credible backing against an Iranian nuclear threat is Israel, which faces even more of an existential threat from mullahs with nukes than does Saudi Arabia. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if we find, down the road, that Saudi Arabia and Israel already have in place a secret anti-Iranian military alliance. Longer term, the Saudis would find it much more comfortable to possess their own nukes. Thus, a secret nuclear weapons development program is also probably already underway in Saudi Arabia, putting still another major ding in Obama’s oft-expressed shiny hopes of radically dialing back the global threat of nuclear war on his watch.
I think it likely the Saudis already have them, or could get them quickly. After all, they bankrolled Pakistan’s acquisition. I expect they have all the plans and data necessary, at the very least.
But, having them does not mean you want to use them, or admit to having them, except in direst need.
From my POV the whole Middle East is a basket case and the US would do better in changing their oil suppliers to Canada, US, and Venezuelan resources. The US needs to focus on their own continent more instead of trying to be this all reaching hyperpower. It will need to cover the sea lanes in the Pacific and Atlantic to its traditional allies but the rest is a waste of effort. The US needs to focus on rebuilding its own economy. The result will inevitably be a rise in power from China filling the vacuum but the alternative, an economic crisis, in either the US or China is not particularly palatable either.
After some more technological shifts a global hyperpower may become possible but in my opinion the technology required to support such a superstate does not exist yet. In my opinion the infantry needs more mobility, the bombers require more range and loiter time, the logistics need to be streamlined, but even that is probably not going to be enough.
What I worry instead in the decades to come is a spread of the Arab spring sentiment elsewhere leading to a string of revolutions all over the globe much like what happened in the late XIXth century early XXth century. If the Middle East is left to its own devices it is inevitable that some regional power will eventually emerge as historically has been the case. If it will come from Persia, Anatolia, or elsewhere is anyone’s guess. Once that regional power emerges the region will stabilize.
The rift with Saudi Arabia isn’t over Israel. We didn’t have to choose one or the other and what happened wasn’t a choice of Obama’s. It was a decision made by the Saudis. Obama is a disaster on every front and defending him rather than holding him accountable wont induce him to improve his performance.
We know why the media wont go after Obama, he sends DHS SWAT teams after them (did you see that one?) but why don’t Democrats get together and stage an intervention? How does he punish Democrats who dare point out his failures? Are you afraid that if you say something negative about Obama you will be sent to prision, lose your job, or get an IRS audit? OMG is he behind you right now as you type? Use two periods at the end of your last sentance if you need help.
It’s an important part of the world and it helps to have friends. We were told that the world would love us once Obama was in office. No more cowboy BushHitler. Instead, Obama has pissed off our allies and failed at sucking up to our enemies. All he does is look weak, naïve and stupid. He’s an international laughingstock. I’d be laughing, too, if the consequences weren’t so serious.
I would certainly not automatically do the Saudis’ bidding. I would not be the Saudis’ puppet. I certainly disagree with the Saudis’ stand on a “right of return” as a condition for a Palestinian-Israeli peace deal — ask me sometime about the lands of my ancestors and what my parents lost.
But the Saudis are in the Middle East and they are of the Middle East and they help finance large parts of the Middle East (think of the recent Egyptian “bailout” after deposing Morsi). The sense I get is that we have differences with the Saudis, fundamental differences, but their ruling elite are soft-spoken and live by a code of honor that I would not find strange to my own Near Eastern heritage, yet they are familiar with our customs owing to education, in many cases, in the West, and I would be able to engage with their ambassador in a way that it seems impossible to engage some people here.
I know this, not because I am in the Roledex of Bandar al Sultan but because I work at a public research university and I have had professional interactions with Saudis as well as with other persons from the Middle East. I don’t need to travel the world because in my job, the world comes to me.
I would certainly consult with the Saudis. I would want to know why they support a military dictator in Egypt but oppose a military dictator in Syria, and I would ask them not in snark, but in sincerity, to explain their interests that I would better understand them. I would have disagreements with the Saudis, major disagreements, but I would certainly not unnecessarily engage in actions for the Saudis to lose public face.
We here can agree to disagree on Healthcare.gov, solar and wind energy vs freeing up oil and coal development, the SLS vs orbital depots, but opening a diplomatic rift with the Saudis for no other reason that we consider their opinions to be of minor note is a serious, serious error, on the part of the President, his Administration, and all those who would defend that Administration.