Yep, the Moon has all the resources we need to expand into the Solar System and create a Solar System wide economy. Pity so many folks are fixated on Mars and NEOs.
If we had only kept our space policy focused on the Moon following Apollo, instead of chasing after bacteria on Mars and CATS, we would probably have settlements throughout the inner Solar System by now and with it the launch demand to make CATS feasible. But that is what happens when science instead of exploitation guides space policy.
Despite your economic delusions, affordable launch is necessary for development of the solar system.
Rand,
You still don’t get it do you? Reduces in transportation cost always comes from evolutionary advances and practice, not technological push like CATS advocates believe.
Columbus didn’t spend years developing “trans-Atlantic CATS”. He simply chartered existing ships that were designed for coasting and used them. Only AFTER the wealth of the New World was recognized did the tiny ships he used evolve in Galleons that lowered global shipping costs and created a global economy.
Discovery of water on the Moon in the 1970’s would have led to fuel depots and pure spaceships for traveling from LEO in the 1980’s. Instead of the Space Shuttle we would have seen smaller craft like the Dream Chaser evolve into TSTO orbit systems, all driven by demand, not pushed as “space programs”. So we would have “CATS” now. Actually we would have had it decades ago.
Well, the opposite of CATS (cheap access to space) is EATS (expensive access to space). That’s what we’ve operated under up till now, and it’s getting worse.
Dan Dumbacher, in charge of the SLS/Orion program, estimates it will cost about $2 billion a flight. That comes to about $7,000 a pound for the Block II cargo (counting the shroud), and $333 million a seat. Under some projected schedules they’ll only fly a crewed version every other year, putting an average of three people into space per year, whereas the Shuttle’s average was about 35 or so a year. That aspect is the RATS program (rare access to space).
Kinda, makes you long for the “good old” days of the Shuttle doesn’t it 🙂
Reduces in transportation cost always comes from evolutionary advances and practice, not technological push like CATS advocates believe.
Technology pushes like higher launch frequency over bigger rockets? I wonder if there’s any prior art on this technological advance? It might be patentable!
La Santa MarĂa de la Inmaculada ConcepciĂłn was Columbus’s largest ship, it was a Carrack. These WERE ocean going ships and Columbus’s was a middle sized one at about 100 tons. He didn’t “simply charter” some ships. Columbus had to negociate terms with the ship OWNERS to sell them on the idea and how profitiable it would be. The Pinzon brothers had already made there bones exploring and had become rich in their own right.
Valdislaw,
Yes, and Carracks only were available because of the need for Spain to have a means to reach its settlements in the Canary Islands. The design of the Carrack itself had evolved over the previous 70 years as a result of Prince Henry’s explorations along the African coast and the discovery of the Azores. But it was not really a long range ship and was only able to reach the New World by first resupplying at the Canary Islands. Hence their evolution into Galleons once there was a need for a large transatlantic ship that could travel easily between Spain and the New World, and later, between the New World and the Philippine Islands.
But again, there was no crash program to design a CATS solution to reach the New World. Instead it was dozens of improvements that built on each other. The same was true of aviation, with hundreds of design changes transforming the Wright Flyer into the DC-7.
Yes, but the negotiations were easier because the Pinzon brothers were out of favor with the Queen and she had made it clear supplying Columbus with ships would restore their favor at the court which was important to their business. So they viewed it as a lost leader.
You still don’t get it do you?
Right back at you.
Columbus didn’t spend years developing “trans-Atlantic CATS”. He simply chartered existing ships that were designed for coasting and used them.
Unfortunately for your analogy, there aren’t any affordable existing ships, or at least there weren’t any prior to the advent of SpaceX.
Rand,
The existing ships weren’t really “affordable” for Columbus, that is why Columbus needed government support. Otherwise he would have funded it via his contacts among private merchants. Affordability came later once the value of crossing the Atlantic became clear. Market demand always drive investment in technology. Its when technology starts to generate real market revenue that the “S” curve takes off.
The Vikings never found trade value in the New World. Because of the limitations of their ships the only real export from Greenland was Falcons for royalty, not enough to justify developing better shipping technology. So trade with Greenland was sporadic, so sporadic no one noticed for decades when the settlements disappeared.
For another example, the Internet was “created” in 1969 and email in 1973, but it wasn’t until business started seeing value in it in the late 1980’s that it attracted the private investment needed to advance it to where it is today. Prior to then it was mostly a government program with technology advancing at the rate normal for government programs. Just like CATS. Then AOL came along and the world changed forever. Space is still waiting for its AOL moment and only when it comes will you see CATS, not before.
If I was in a space ship and the pilot looked back at me and exclaimed “We’re having an AOL moment!” I would start hyperventilating in panic.
George,
Yes, such are the pioneers of the Internet remembered today. I wonder if folks will be saying the same of SpaceX or VG in 20 years.
The Queen gave Columbus a couple years room and board to keep him at court so he wouldn’t shop the idea to other monarchs. Columbus had already tried with two other rulers. The Monarchy then ordered the citizens of Palos de la Frontera to provide the provisions. That was some government support.
Vladislaw,
Yes and it only came when Columbus was already on the road leaving Spain.
Yep, the Moon has all the resources we need to expand into the Solar System and create a Solar System wide economy. Pity so many folks are fixated on Mars and NEOs.
If we had only kept our space policy focused on the Moon following Apollo, instead of chasing after bacteria on Mars and CATS, we would probably have settlements throughout the inner Solar System by now and with it the launch demand to make CATS feasible. But that is what happens when science instead of exploitation guides space policy.
Despite your economic delusions, affordable launch is necessary for development of the solar system.
Rand,
You still don’t get it do you? Reduces in transportation cost always comes from evolutionary advances and practice, not technological push like CATS advocates believe.
Columbus didn’t spend years developing “trans-Atlantic CATS”. He simply chartered existing ships that were designed for coasting and used them. Only AFTER the wealth of the New World was recognized did the tiny ships he used evolve in Galleons that lowered global shipping costs and created a global economy.
Discovery of water on the Moon in the 1970’s would have led to fuel depots and pure spaceships for traveling from LEO in the 1980’s. Instead of the Space Shuttle we would have seen smaller craft like the Dream Chaser evolve into TSTO orbit systems, all driven by demand, not pushed as “space programs”. So we would have “CATS” now. Actually we would have had it decades ago.
Well, the opposite of CATS (cheap access to space) is EATS (expensive access to space). That’s what we’ve operated under up till now, and it’s getting worse.
Dan Dumbacher, in charge of the SLS/Orion program, estimates it will cost about $2 billion a flight. That comes to about $7,000 a pound for the Block II cargo (counting the shroud), and $333 million a seat. Under some projected schedules they’ll only fly a crewed version every other year, putting an average of three people into space per year, whereas the Shuttle’s average was about 35 or so a year. That aspect is the RATS program (rare access to space).
Kinda, makes you long for the “good old” days of the Shuttle doesn’t it 🙂
Reduces in transportation cost always comes from evolutionary advances and practice, not technological push like CATS advocates believe.
Technology pushes like higher launch frequency over bigger rockets? I wonder if there’s any prior art on this technological advance? It might be patentable!
La Santa MarĂa de la Inmaculada ConcepciĂłn was Columbus’s largest ship, it was a Carrack. These WERE ocean going ships and Columbus’s was a middle sized one at about 100 tons. He didn’t “simply charter” some ships. Columbus had to negociate terms with the ship OWNERS to sell them on the idea and how profitiable it would be. The Pinzon brothers had already made there bones exploring and had become rich in their own right.
Valdislaw,
Yes, and Carracks only were available because of the need for Spain to have a means to reach its settlements in the Canary Islands. The design of the Carrack itself had evolved over the previous 70 years as a result of Prince Henry’s explorations along the African coast and the discovery of the Azores. But it was not really a long range ship and was only able to reach the New World by first resupplying at the Canary Islands. Hence their evolution into Galleons once there was a need for a large transatlantic ship that could travel easily between Spain and the New World, and later, between the New World and the Philippine Islands.
But again, there was no crash program to design a CATS solution to reach the New World. Instead it was dozens of improvements that built on each other. The same was true of aviation, with hundreds of design changes transforming the Wright Flyer into the DC-7.
Yes, but the negotiations were easier because the Pinzon brothers were out of favor with the Queen and she had made it clear supplying Columbus with ships would restore their favor at the court which was important to their business. So they viewed it as a lost leader.
You still don’t get it do you?
Right back at you.
Columbus didn’t spend years developing “trans-Atlantic CATS”. He simply chartered existing ships that were designed for coasting and used them.
Unfortunately for your analogy, there aren’t any affordable existing ships, or at least there weren’t any prior to the advent of SpaceX.
Rand,
The existing ships weren’t really “affordable” for Columbus, that is why Columbus needed government support. Otherwise he would have funded it via his contacts among private merchants. Affordability came later once the value of crossing the Atlantic became clear. Market demand always drive investment in technology. Its when technology starts to generate real market revenue that the “S” curve takes off.
The Vikings never found trade value in the New World. Because of the limitations of their ships the only real export from Greenland was Falcons for royalty, not enough to justify developing better shipping technology. So trade with Greenland was sporadic, so sporadic no one noticed for decades when the settlements disappeared.
For another example, the Internet was “created” in 1969 and email in 1973, but it wasn’t until business started seeing value in it in the late 1980’s that it attracted the private investment needed to advance it to where it is today. Prior to then it was mostly a government program with technology advancing at the rate normal for government programs. Just like CATS. Then AOL came along and the world changed forever. Space is still waiting for its AOL moment and only when it comes will you see CATS, not before.
If I was in a space ship and the pilot looked back at me and exclaimed “We’re having an AOL moment!” I would start hyperventilating in panic.
George,
Yes, such are the pioneers of the Internet remembered today. I wonder if folks will be saying the same of SpaceX or VG in 20 years.
The Queen gave Columbus a couple years room and board to keep him at court so he wouldn’t shop the idea to other monarchs. Columbus had already tried with two other rulers. The Monarchy then ordered the citizens of Palos de la Frontera to provide the provisions. That was some government support.
Vladislaw,
Yes and it only came when Columbus was already on the road leaving Spain.