Taking a closer look. I think that the Democrats are whistling past the graveyard.
[Update a while later]
Here is the latest polling. Obama only breaks fifty percent with the Marquette poll; all the others have him less than that. The state is in play.
But what if the non-respondents were also disproportionately the most conservative voters, who don’t trust media folk?
Yeah. And I’ve got another one that would probably cause some of these folks’ heads to explode: What if some of the respondents provided intentionally inaccurate information.
Try to figure that into your calc’s dude.
Wisconsin may be in play, or maybe not, but look at some other polls in the region; Detroit free press has it 46-45 for Romney in MICHIGAN! That’s a shocker, but the internals are moreso; that’s registered voters, not likely voters (and likely voters is a more accurate measure, as well as slanting about two points to the right, due to conservatives being more inclined, statistically, to vote). Another factor; undecideds tend to break for the challenger. If other polls confirm, then IMHO it’s Michigan that’s in play.
Or, is it Minnesota? Polls show it’s very close there, in a deep blue state. (a state that’s voted consistently D in presidential elections for longer than any other).
As for those Wisconsin exit polls; they were also showing a 50-50 dead heat, not the 8 point blowout Walker won by.