I mean, how silly is it to think that someone would pay money to see something like this?
35 thoughts on “There Is No Market For Space Tourism”
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I mean, how silly is it to think that someone would pay money to see something like this?
Comments are closed.
Ad tl;dw, but having talked to various crew members, I know they spend a great deal of time looking out the window.
Ok, went back after Ad ended. It’s worth the wait. Both for the ad to end and to get space tourism.
Rand,
The question has never been if there is a market, at least by those who know how to properly use business terminology, but if the actual market (those both willing and able to pay) is significantly large and robust enough to justify the cost of developing the systems needed to serve it. That is still an open question and will be for a number of years to come.
The question has never been if there is a market, at least by those who know how to properly use business terminology
Many people stupidly claim there is no market. You must not get out much.
I read once that the amount of energy to take 1lb to LEO was the equivalent of flying one pound from LA to Sydney. I can fly RT (steerage) for around $1500. I remember paying a pretty good amount for a Commodore 64, what 25 yrs ago. Now the equivalent sum can get me better stuff than they had on Star Trek TNG. When the day finally arrives where some one opens the market for a reasonable sum, the rest as they say will be history…
Add free, http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=cj6J3Rd0Tq4
***
The tipping point might come when companies are launching alcohol, froot loops, or ipads because their are people up there who want to buy those items.
I’ve heard and read enough complaints about how Madison Avenue creates demand for things that nobody needs, to think that this is probably one of those “If you build it, they will come” scenarios.
After all, who ever imagined people traveling all the way to Florida to visit a place miles and miles away from any beach?
if the actual market (those both willing and able to pay) is significantly large and robust enough to justify the cost of developing the systems needed to serve it. That is still an open question and will be for a number of years to come.
No, it’s not an “open question,” except to those who’ve never cracked a book on business math.
It’s a question that any freshman business major could answer with a little market research and a little math. Not really magic, no matter what you believe.
Rand,
You are probably referring to the space policy experts who don’t have backgrounds in business. I take their opinions about space commerce as serious as the opinions of a 5 year old on driving.
Edward,
Anyone is able to do math, the problem is getting markets to follow your assumptions. And getting costs low enough to match.
After all, who ever imagined people traveling all the way to Florida to visit a place miles and miles away from any beach?
Harrison “Buzz” Price — Walt Disney’s econometrics guy.
Thanks to Harrison Price, Disney had a very good idea what sort of revenues he could expect.
The bankers who didn’t believe him simply hadn’t done the math which Price had.
Tom thinks that, because he hasn’t done the math, no else one has and no one can. That’s nonsense.
Anyone is able to do math, the problem is getting markets to follow your assumptions.
People who know what they’re doing don’t make assumptions about the market — they make measurements. It’s called “market research.”
But Edward, think of the abuse Thomas took as a child playing hide and seek. He’d close his eyes shut tight, but they’d still find him.
You are probably referring to the space policy experts who don’t have backgrounds in business
No, I’m referring to people who don’t personally have an interest in it (who probably prefer aisle to window seats in airplanes), and stupidly project their own lack of interest on the rest of humanity.
You are probably referring to the space policy experts who don’t have backgrounds in business. I take their opinions about space commerce as serious as the opinions of a 5 year old on driving.
Once again, the troll who has never operated a lemonade stand insults people who have actual work experience.
I must apologize for calling Tom an untenured professor, however. According to the Internet, he’s now left the tenure track and dropped back to the instructor level at a community college.
In Elko, Nevada, of all places.
http://www.gbcnv.edu/profiles/matula_thomas.html
This one’s a bit of a chicken and egg/damned if you do, damned if you don’t debate that always comes down to the “there is no market” crowd arguing that there cannot be a market if there’s no trading presently happening. If you point out to them that that means there was no market for [insert hugely popular technological item now in all households] a year before it was marketed, they smile happily and agree.
Edward, could you lay off of that please? I think there’s a bunch of us who’d rather be working for a space-related business, but we’re holding what jobs we can. I’m currently bean counting in Yellowstone National Park (as I have for the last couple of seasons). I’d rather be bending metal, but at least it beats academia from my frame of reference.
Edward,
Is that why you bought your Mig 21? Because your market research showed customers would make you rich flying them to “space” in it?
Also you are behind the curve as usual.
http://www.gbcnv.edu/departments/BUS.html
I am Department Chair, and the main employers in the region are the gold mining firms working the Carlin Trend. Low grade gold mining has much in common with lunar PGM mining with outputs measured in ounces. Local mine managers taking courses in the BAS hadn’t heard of lunar PGMs before my classes but get very interested in the topic when we discuss cases involving its recovery. Unlike space cadets the investment level or time scale doesn’t scare them. And they don’t see NASA as the prime “customer” like New Space does.
You don’t sell space economic development by wasting time on advocate meetings or making the Washington circuit of Congress critters whose districts include space. That is the old “Apollo” mindset that space advocates have never graduated from. You focus on educating the future managers in the industries most likely to benefit from it 🙂
Rand,
[[[No, I’m referring to people who don’t personally have an interest in it (who probably prefer aisle to window seats in airplanes), and stupidly project their own lack of interest on the rest of humanity.]]]
So who cares about them? They are not your market? I see football as a complete waste of time. But there are many like you that seem to be addicted to it.
In terms of spaceflight, the numbers from polls have been constant since the 1970’s. About 2/3 would like to go and 1/3 are not interested. The problem is not lack of market, but being able to make money satisfying it.
Edward,
Also your attitude shows you don’t have the adventure mind needed for opening space. To me nothing could be more boring then to be tenured teaching the same kind of students year after year, publishing the usual chain of boring articles in marketing journals. That is why the first job I took was a Sul Ross College in Del Rio. Why? Because the majority of the students were instructor pilots at Laughlin AFB getting their MBAs. Now that was a group that appreciated business cases involving space commerce, and the potential of STO 🙂
I prefer aisle to window seats.
Also your attitude shows you don’t have the adventure mind needed for opening space.
Tom, that sentence speaks for itself. Someone who teaches “Business Communications” at the community-college level should be able to master basic grammar, if not logic.
Rand, thanks for the link. I watched it while I was updating something simple at my current client. The CAD updates take only a short amount of time and work, but the drawing management software takes several times as long to complete. This brought some kind of irritation to my eyes…
Karl,
I agree with you on preferring to work in space related, but in the meantime doing what you have to do. In this economy, I look at it as a job is a job. That’s why I’m staying here in SC, even though I am bored stiff. I envy you the fact that you are working at Yellowstone.
So who cares about them? They are not your market?
I don’t have a market. I’m not currently in that business. But idiots like them (e.g., Daveon) pollute the discussion in space fora.
I see football as a complete waste of time. But there are many like you that seem to be addicted to it.
I’m “addicted” to football? Who knew?
Rand,
[[[But idiots like them (e.g., Daveon) pollute the discussion in space fora.]]]
You should take the attitude of Arthur C. Clarke who used to collect the space is impossible quotes for books. It makes it easier to ignore them.
[[[I’m “addicted” to football? Who knew?]]]
You blog about the teams you follow.
Oh.
I see.
Because I happen to follow my home-state football teams, I’m “addicted to football”?
Really? Do you have the remotest comprehension as to what the word “addicted” means?
Why do you insist on demonstrating your idiocy here? Please go do it on someone else’s blog.
Where would chocolate production be if Westerners had delayed production until economies of scale allowed more than just rich folks to purchase the stuff?
Rand,
Its a relative term, not an absolute one. To someone who doesn’t follow football, or even sports, an individual who follows different teams appears addicted. And they are certainly the market for products with the team’s logo.
All you’re demonstrating is ignorance of the meaning of the word “addiction” (which is not a “relative term”). There are people who are addicted to sports in general, and particular sports. I am not one of them.
Rand,
All you are showing is your inability to understand the use of relative terms. I will make it simple.
A non-smoker would consider a pack a week smoker addicted.
A pack a week smoker would not consider themselves addicted, they believe that term refers to the pack a day smoker.
It’s a matter of perspective.
All you are showing is your inability to understand the use of relative terms.
I have no deficiencies in that regard.
A non-smoker would consider a pack a week smoker addicted.
I am a non-smoker, and I do not consider a pack-a-week smoker addicted, absent other evidence.
You didn’t make it “simple.” Unless by that you meant you made like a simpleton would. You made it wrong. You don’t understand the meaning of the word “addiction.”
Rand,
And you don’t understand the definition as it applies to sports. You seem to be stuck on the formal medical use of the term. It has an informal use as well.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/addict
2. A devoted adherent; a fan:
Do you deny you are a fan of Michigan football?
I’m not “hung up” on anything. But you seem desperate to redefine words to prove that I’m “addicted” to football.
I wonder why that would be?
The Australia/US game kicks off in 2 and a half hours, I’ll be cheering for the US as the underdog, but realistically they’re probably gonna get thrashed.
Rand,
Its the dictionary’s definition you are disagreeing it, not me. Perhaps you should be thinking of writing your own dictionary since you seem to ignore the existing ones.