12 thoughts on “Is Commercial Crew In Trouble?”

  2. Fortunately this gives Elon heads up with enough time to deal with it. NASA is committed to payments for cargo which is all SpaceX really needs to develop crew. If NASA is too invasive and tries to control Dragon, SpaceX can just say no. They have already developed a crew capsule. They were just wanting NASA to pay for the new abort system, but they will do it regardless.

    You better believe they’re already working on new technology for the future. Thomas’s fantasy of a government takeover of SpaceX will never happen. Not as long as Elon is alive.

    Bigelow is already on the manifest and crew will be ready about the same time.

  3. But Elon is only in control while the firm stays private. Once it does an IPO he will have stockholders and their lawyers to deal with.

    Also if all Dragon needs is an abort system then he should stop waiting on NASA and get going on it. Bigelow has customers waiting on a means to get to his stations and has been waiting a while for someone to finally provide commercial services.

  5. Despite rumors to the contrary, Elon doesn’t have an infinite amount of money to spend, and I’m sure it’s not helping that DoD just did what was effectively an 8 year advance purchase of ULA vehicles (at realistic launch rates).

    SpaceX’s main objective with CCDev 2 was to work on the launch escape/landing system. Getting that done cuts 3 years of a hypothetical 6 year schedule to man the Dragon that SpaceX has been tossing around – absent NASA dollars.

    But in the CCDev briefing yesterday, NASA added back something like that for everyone by putting in a gobbledigook new phase into com crew, if you want to carry NASA people. NASA remains the anchor customer that these guys require until there is enough private demand, and the mythology of manned flight means that that demand won’t step up sufficiently by itself until NASA does.

    And adding the new phase and FAR rules will balloon the cost of doing anything for N’s commercial crew, as Mike Gold of Bigelow pointed out at the session.

    The reality is that things right now look very bad for commercial human access to orbit. We’ll be lucky if NASA’s new, mysterious “certification” requirements don’t slide over and override FAA in orbital flight, thus bombing any chance for a wholly private but much slower progression to it from other quarters.

  6. Charles,

    [[[We’ll be lucky if NASA’s new, mysterious “certification” requirements don’t slide over and override FAA in orbital flight, thus bombing any chance for a wholly private but much slower progression to it from other quarters.]]]

    Which is exactly what I predicted would happen when the policy was rolled out, to the jeers of folks like Rand. COTS was not the flagship program and so it possible it could have kept sliding under the radar. But once the new policy made it the flagship as CCDev it doomed it to micromanagement by NASA.

    Continuing Constellation was cheap in terms of keeping NASA distracted so commercial HSF could developed unmolested. But now its gone and NASA is free to “help” the “commercial” providers develop “safe and reliable” designs. Be afraid, be very afraid.

  7. Rand,

    [[[He won’t IPO if he doesn’t maintain voting control of the stock.]]]

    Sorry, but voting control is not enough as even minority stock holders are allowed a say in corporate governance, and there are always lawyers ready to help them make their demands for “better” management, not to mention the SEC.

  8. Elon already has investors. What we don’t know is if they are waiting to cash out or share Elon’s vision. The only reason to go public (if not just to cash out) is to have funds for larger projects. While Elon doesn’t have infinite resources, SpaceX has been profitable for years.

    I am quite sure that Elon is aware of the traps and will avoid them. He got into this business because he knew the old paradigm needed competition.

    Anything could happen, but I’m not counting him out just yet.

  9. SpaceX was a CCDev2 winner. They’re not messing with those contracts (yet) and the one with SpaceX pays them to develop a launch abort system – and provides NASA assistance to build the crew controls.

    So, as of next year, SpaceX will have a crew capsule.. they just won’t have any NASA money to do tests, or NASA certification to fly crews. I *hope* that they won’t give in to this FAR contracting experiment.. but what they really need is someone to step up and say they don’t need or want NASA certification to carry crews. Calling Bob Bigelow, please pick up a white courtesy phone.

  10. The reality is that things right now look very bad for commercial human access to orbit.

    I’m more optimistic about commercial human access than ever before. That wheel of cheese will one day have it’s statue on mars.

    Elon is now in a position to just say no. He has no holes in his manifest and once Bigelow is in orbit people are going to be fighting for spots. Three launch sites will not handle the load. The military will want all the launches from Vandenberg. Canaveral is going to be backlogged. Kwajalein Atoll will need to be upgraded. They are going to need two more facilities just to handle the current manifest that does not include humans.

    This next decade is going to be the decade of quantities of humans in space.

  11. “I’m more optimistic about commercial human access than ever before. That wheel of cheese will one day have it’s statue on mars.”

    What ever happened to the cheese? Did they make nachos, a cheese pizza, or eat it with wine in a box?

  12. I’m hoping that the first time Dragon berths at the ISS and the station crew opens the hatch, they will find a wheel of cheese and a bottle of wine.

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