Will there be a war between Israel and Iran in September?
[Update a while later]
Unfortunately, this may be related — are we approaching a “Munich moment” in southeast Asia?
24 thoughts on “So Whose Side Will We Take?”
Comments are closed.
Will there be a war between Israel and Iran in September?
[Update a while later]
Unfortunately, this may be related — are we approaching a “Munich moment” in southeast Asia?
Comments are closed.
I assume the Saudis will be pressuring Obama to back Israel.
I assume Assad will be pressuring Obama to back Iran. Obama will be torn, indecisive, and call for multi-party peace talks with Syria, Algeria, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, Belarus, and Myanmar, along with representatives of Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Fatah, and the Muslim Brotherhood.
That this question can even be reasonably asked is quite depressing.
One, you may not want to panic yet. There have been three carriers in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf in the past and no war with Iran followed.
Two, now you may want to panic. While the USN is involved mucking around in the Gulf. The Chinese decide to have a go at Taiwan, or the Senkaku islands, or against Vietnam and the Philippines in the S. China Sea. Or all three areas at once.
Three, now you can go into a state of extreme panic. If the above scenario does play out, do you really think the Chinese would be just taking advantage of an unexpected turn of events?
There has been so much speculation about Israel and what they will do to Iran, if anything, over the last several years that it is hard to get worked up about anything.
If Israel was involved with stuxnet (or us), then they know exactly how far along Iran’s nuclear program is. Will military action be taken to stop Iran from having the bomb? Who knows. Some people even say they already have the capability for a couple nukes.
“What is also notable is that the LHD 5 Bataan amphibious warfare ship has just weighed anchor right next to Libya: this is odd since the coast of Tripoli had been left unattended for many weeks by US attack ships.”
This would seem more like a sign of an impending invasion of Libya to end the kinetic military outreach that was only supposed to last days.
I persist in my contrarian viewpoint that it is not the end of the world (either figuratively or literally) if Iran acquires nuclear weapons. For once they lay claim to the nuclear genie, they have to face the near-certain prospect of waking up as radioactive slag if they ever unleash it. I believe the above holds even if Iran were to hide behind a proxy such as Hamas or Hezbollah.
Thomas P. M. Barnett has written on this before, much more eloquently and completely than I can.
An amendment to my previous post: I am not suggesting that we should be carefree if Iran acquires nuclear weapons; I am suggesting that it isn’t worth pre-emptive war by us or Israel.
Israel.
No question.
We should have bombed the Imams of Tehran, long ago.
They are the single biggest problem for us today.
IMHO.
If they were out of power, WHO would fill that Great Satan hater void between Iraq and Afghanistan?
Obviously he’ll do what he can to ensure Iran wins. That will ensure that the Muslims will see us as the weak horse, and will make another 9/11 a certainty. Then he will declare a state of emergency and confiscate all firearms. Gun owners are the new niggers.
Oh, I love this post! I don’t know what the US Navy is doing, but the speculation regarding Israel is a most excellent stew of left-wing nonsense mixed with right-wing nonsense seasoned with a sprinkle of truther nonsense. Well done!
What is right-wing and left-wing should be obvious (America getting pushed around by Israel, as revealed on l.. …really?) but here’s the “truther” connection from your source: http://911blogger.com/archive/2006/06/former-cia-member-robert-baer-comments.html
Robert Baer seems to have stepped into the every-America-hater’s-favorite-turncoat-CIA-man ecological niche in the Leftosphere rendered vacant by the death of Philip Agee.
Isn’t Bibi still PM? I can’t see him starting a war like that — he’s way to sharp. And the other two, Iran and China, particularly China, have more than enough on their plate right now without a speculative war.
Also, chthulu is right. Consider Pakistan and India, mortal enemies who fought three wars over the Kashmir between mutual independence and their acquisition of nuclear weapons. Since that time — zero. They don’t even have serious border incidents any more, for the same reason the USSR and US were very careful not to have them during the Cold War. An armed society, as they say, is a polite society.
An armed society is a polite society.
Among sapiens.
Yeah, not sure that a country with nukes run by a doomsday cult of religious fanatics can be trusted to act in their population’s best interests. Regardless, it’s going to swing the balance of power pretty strongly in Iran’s favor, and every country in the vicinity that can possibly afford it is going to start up their own nuke program. Once a couple more countries in the area have nukes any country that provides them to terrorists is going to have plausible deniability. I’m not sure what that means–if someone nukes DC and there are three countries that we suspect could have provided the bomb, do we just nuke all three?
Anything saying that Israel will “ignite” a war with Iran is immediately suspect. Like they haven’t been in a de facto state of war for decades, initiated by Iran. If this (highly falsifiable) prediction fails, loud mockery should ensue.
Also, Jim nailed it – the only good thing about the Iranian regime is that it scares the crap out of the KSA. Unfortunately they will have a free hand once that regime is gone.
Carl, not zero. In addition to brazen and deadly terrorist attacks on India linked to official institutions in Pakistan, there was this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War
The article claims ” This was only the second direct ground war between any two countries after they had developed nuclear weapons”, and I suppose the first was the border wars between China and the USSR. I think you can reasonably take the position that the exception proves the rule, but still, it wasn’t zero.
In the phrase:
“the LHD 5 Bataan amphibious warfare ship has just weighed anchor right next to Libya”
is the author using the term “weighed anchor” correctly or incorrectly; i.e., does the author mean that the LHD5 is leaving Libyan waters (correct usage), or has just arrived (incorrect usage)?
“Anchors aweigh” means that the anchor is now free from the bottom and is being drawn _up_.
Pssht, ken. Even my dog understands the stick. The threat of physical violence as a retaliation is the most basic social instinct there is. I’d say only reptiles fail to understand it, and the mullahs, whatever else thay may be, are more sophisticated than reptiles.
I don’t suggest the United States be indifferent to the acquisition of nuclear weapon or weapons by the Iranian government. I’m all for stuxnetting them and undermining the regime by supporting their domestic republican opponents — but I would be for that in any event, nuclear weapons or not, because it’s right for the Persian people and in our national interest. We might step it up a bit because they are on the verge of nukes.
But beyond that — I would respond as we responded to the Soviet Union in the Eisenhower or Reagan days: with an extremely strong aggressive forward stance of our own, that makes very clear the price paid for mis-use of the weaponry will be intolerably high, for every life form in Iran above the complexity of a roach.
I would certainly not respond to them in the way of Nixon or Carter, with detente and appeasement and Sting songs about hoping the mullahs love their children, too, and I tend to think a philosophy that puts the goal of no nukes in Iran above everything else tends to promote those unfortunate peace at any price tendencies.
I realize it’s unconventional thinking, goes against the Zeitgeist. But keep in mind the attitude that nuclear weapons are the worst possible most evil thing ever invented, so evil that badness and mortal danger flows from their very existence, is the direct product of the same goofball multculti Stalinist culture that brings you the same attitude about personal weapons. Only the professionals can handle these. You, peasant, should accept being taken care of by your betters. Not for me.
Pssht, ken. Even my dog understands the stick.
Careful Carl, anything you say can and will be used against you by the leftards.
The problem is we elect people that speak loudly and can’t find a stick.
This is why we need someone with historical perspective… VP West.
We elect people who speak loudly and couldn’t find their own stick with both hands, a flashlight, and the newest GPS gizmo.
And never mind finding the stones. They’re in a lockbox somewhere.
…and in the old days before capstans the crew raising it was feeling its entire weight, hence the usage.
Iran is on he verge of losing its Evil Twin, Skippy in Damascus. Anti-Assad demonstrations turned out over a million people last weekend. If Assad falls, Hezbollah and Hamas are next up to bat. The Turks will be in play as will the Kurds. I wouldn’t rule out the Iraqis either. The deck in that part of the ME is about to be reshuffled and Iran will have lost its largest and nastiest ally. All in all, not a bad thing.
In a slightly related story, Iran’s other best friend and ally in this hemisphere announced that he was going to Cuba for chemo. Hugo at 57 is a very, very sick puppy.
Cheers –
It’s more like a Georgia Getalong than a Munich Moment. We speak loudly about freedom but leave our allies to the carnivores. GWB gave a speech in that country implying a security umbrella. They believed the political talk. Result, half they’re country is now gone.
Russia saw a chance and took it. China will see it’s chances and take them as well. We need to become the very best of friends with India.