Howard Dean should be careful what he wishes for.
In general, I’ve never been impressed by Howard Dean’s political perspicacity, and I agree with this:
“This isn’t 1995,” Weber said. “Obama is not Clinton; Boehner isn’t Gingrich.”
There’s something else about it not being 1995 that matters. A lot of the blame on the Republicans was driven by the media, which was still in shock and angry that their political party had been repudiated at the polls (remember the late Peter Jennings’ comment about it being a “temper tantrum” of a “two-year old”?). As I was mentioning to someone on the phone this morning when the topic of a shutdown came up, Fox News didn’t exist in 1995. Neither did the non-leftist blogosphere. They won’t have a free-fire zone to shape the narrative this time. If the Senate holds up a budget, or the president refuses to sign one, over a few billion dollars in budget cuts, when the public is pretty clearly much more concerned about spending levels now than they were then, it will be a lot harder to get the public, and particularly the independents, to blame the Republicans.
Also, there would be no shutdown this year had the Democrat controlled Congress passed a budget bill anytime last year. Without any political motivation beyond avoiding making hard choices before an election; the Democrats chose to not vote on a FY2011 budget prior to Octobter 1, 2010.
Then when they came back from the election break, after they promised to pass a budget before the end of the Congressional term; they balked. The first Republican controlled House budget bill should be FY 2012. Call me in October if there isn’t a bill passed by then.
In the interim, Michelle should be wary of any pizza delivered to the White House.
Again, I disagree. This isn’t 1995 all right. There are far more people dependent on the government for their food stamps and jobs – and the government unions own the Democrats as well as a large chunk of the electorate.
The most recent successful government political success was when the Democrats made noise but never actually defunded the war. The Republicans stand to take over the Senate and quite possilby the Presidency in the next election if they make sure the public knows where they stand on the budget and the deficit but does nothing percieved as hurting the country.
Finally, never interrupt an enemy in the middle of a mistake. Obama has just added another war. Why take the headlines away from his fumbling?
It is pretty hard to see this clearly benefiting either side. The Republicans can make a good case for our dire financial situation but it is going to be hard to out message the Democrats saying the Republicans want to kill babies, throw grandma out in the street, and cause millions of people to lose their jobs. Attacks don’t have to be true to be effective.
If what you say is true wodun, then the effort to control spending is already lost until other countries call us on our debt. When that happens, it will be a very bloody war.
A shutdown would be good for the US space program and for manned spaceflight worldwide. As I don’t live in the US and do care about the future of manned spaceflight it is a very tempting thing to hope for.
K Says:
“Again, I disagree. This isn’t 1995 all right. There are far more people dependent on the government for their food stamps and jobs – and the government unions own the Democrats as well as a large chunk of the electorate.”
I don’t believe any of those things are stopped during a shutdown. food stamps etc. still go out. No one goes hungry. No one freezes.
In 1995 the GOP failed to make that, and a number of other things, clear. A President has a big advantage in the Presidential Bully Pulpit, but the GOP can combat that if they want to.
And the GOP SHOULD be using the time between now and April 8th endlessly listing the silly pork and waste that is rife in the budget.
During the 2008 election Obama used a very effective rhetorical device…he’d take something an opponent said and say,
“We all know what’s going on. They are just saying this because they want to fill-in-the-blank you. But you aren’t going to fall for that.”
I wish Conservatives would learn to use that device.
“We all know what’s going on here…it’s the typical liberal ploy trying to scare you by telling you that we want to starve people, are homophobic, xenophobic, infant-phobic etc… But you know better….you know that food stamps still go out during a shutdown.. you know that…etc etc…”
Unfortunately it doesn’t need to be true if enough on “our” side of the aisle believe it is, because they’ll make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I say to hell with it. “Political” consequences be damned.
The public isn’t ready for getting what’s coming to us yet. They can and will kill the messenger.
Mrmandais Says:
“The public isn’t ready for getting what’s coming to us yet.”
True for a substantial chunk of the public.
I suspect with that as with most things the blame will depend on which side of the fence you are. If you watch Fox news then President Obama will be to blame. If you watch the rest of the news media the Tea Party Republicans will be to blame. So in the end it will just split the nation further.
And if it triggers a double-dip recessions then I expect the result will be the same as it always is when folks are hit in the pocket book. Namely they turn over those in office, so we may end up with a Democratic House and a Republican President, unless the Republicans unless of course the Republicans select someone only a Republican Tea Party member would vote for…. Then its back to 2008 again.
YEAHHHHHHHH
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDwODbl3muE
So the choice is either the biased liberal media or retarded Fox News? Really?
That ship has already sailed, hit the iceberg and sunk, my friend.
That’s why he speaks of a double-dip as if it hasn’t happened already.
Marco Rubio had an interesting take on it in his WSJ column: Why I Won’t Vote to Raise the Debt Limit
Excerpt:
“Some say we will go into default if we don’t increase the debt limit. But if we simply raise it once again, without a real plan to bring spending under control and get our economy growing, America faces the very real danger of a catastrophic economic crisis……..
Whether they admit it or not, everyone in Washington knows how to solve these problems. What is missing is the political will to do it.”
As an aside, I still wonder if Dean tested a laundering scheme for funding candidates undetectably in 2004. There’s never been a satisfactory explanation for why his small donations dried up so quickly after the Iowa caucus. The “Dean scream” just doesn’t cut it. Why would a lackluster performance (or a scary yell at a pep rally) scare off his supposedly loyal supporters? A hypothesis of a big fish pumping money in through a small donations website and then cutting Dean off when he didn’t deliver does satisfy the observations.
Then Obama raises somewhere around a quarter of billion dollars in untraceable small donations for the 2008 elections. Smells like astroturf to me.
Karl,
Howard Dean screaming like a good ole boy at a rodeo is a fake as George W Bush nibbling on canapes, sipping pinot, and speaking eruditely on Mamet in a Kennedy lockjaw accent.
Its widely known in political circles that left wing groups routinely make donations on behalf of members that they know do not themselves make political donations, much as it is known by politicos in the know that democratic party operatives frequently vote on behalf of people they know do not show up at the polls (due to death or disinterest, is irrelevant). It is, in fact, a useful laundering technique but one that is possible to detect using a few mathematical algorithms.
McGehee,
[[[That’s why he speaks of a double-dip as if it hasn’t happened already.]]]
Not according to the economic data.