Obama may be an ephebe, an utter novice at the post of command, but it must be admitted that he is a consummate sorcerer who was able to seduce and enchant multitudes, especially the horde of grown-up children so ready and eager to be piped to. Unlike the Pied Piper, however, he did not work alone but arrived on the scene surrounded by a retinue of plutocrats, political mandarins, and clever enablers, and of course by the usual train of cavillers, pettifoggers, sybarites, and janissaries, that is, journalists, feminists, intellectuals and academics. This only facilitated his task which he would not have been capable of accomplishing on his own.
Nonetheless, he had the magic, the gift of bewitchment, and no hesitation in using it. It wasn’t long before he was able to spellbind a vast swarm of believers with the promise of auroral benefictions (if I may coin a term). The tune was irresistible but very few heard the infrasonic lyrics, which actually belied the melody. These poor dupes followed him willingly into the new dawn of mellifluous beginnings, only to find the bright morning of the future suddenly changed into the grim presentiment of the coming debacle. This is what inevitably happens when one invests uncritically in fairy tales and surrenders one’s intelligence and autonomy to the blandishments of a false messiah.
Read all.
Once again, focused on NASA. Its a global market, and extends well beyond NASA.
Blame the Department of Commerce for that one. Last I checked, they’re not new space or me. They were summarizing the state of US research in space including the private sector. My take is that it’s an order of magnitude too low for the claims you are making. You apparently have data you’re not willing to share. Fine. I don’t have to take you seriously without that data.
Karl,
[[[My take is that it’s an order of magnitude too low for the claims you are making. You apparently have data you’re not willing to share.]]]
Do you give away the data you gather as part of your consulting business? I am not a charity.
But its interesting how the new Space firms don’t see it. It reminds me of IBM and xerography. In the 1950’s IBM had the opportunity to buy up the key xerography patents but decided not because their business modeling showed demand was too limited to be worth the effort.
Thanks Karl for the current insight of New Space on sub-orbital markets 🙂
Rand Simberg,
[[[Yes, finally, after decades of neglecting those markets to chase after tourists.
I will take that to be an agreement with me that your comment was utter nonsense.]]]
And exactly which non-tourist sub-orbital markets were they seriously pursing a decade ago, beyond the usual NASA funding?
Do you give away the data you gather as part of your consulting business? I am not a charity.
Far be it for me to tell you how to run your business, but a strategic release of some data (for example, such as occurs in advertising) might generate business for you in the long run.
Karl,
Perhaps, but I am already very busy consulting for normal business firms trying to make sense of the recession and my online teaching. If I am not careful I will drift in President’s Obama’s “tax the rich bracket” 🙂
Besides the New Space community tends to close its ears to anyone who doesn’t buy into their focus on manned vehicles. As you noted a crash of Spaceshipone or any vehicle with a pilot would be a news event. On the other hand a crash of an unmanned sub-orbital craft would not even be noticed. And you really only need a pilot to serve the tourist markets.
Perhaps, but I am already very busy consulting for normal business firms trying to make sense of the recession and my online teaching.
And this situation of being gainfully employed will continue because…? It’s also worth noting that you’re making assertions about the size of the suborbital SRE market which would financially benefit yourself without providing even rudimentary evidence to back those claims. That’s confidence game territory. Am I implying you’re trying to con us? Not yet. But needless to say, I don’t believe that your business would suffer if you steered us to public information which backs your claim.
Besides the New Space community tends to close its ears to anyone who doesn’t buy into their focus on manned vehicles. As you noted a crash of Spaceshipone or any vehicle with a pilot would be a news event. On the other hand a crash of an unmanned sub-orbital craft would not even be noticed. And you really only need a pilot to serve the tourist markets.
I find these repeated accusations to be tiresome. There’s plenty of counterevidence (such as numerous New Space companies that aren’t in the manned space flight business) mentioned in this very thread. And Virgin Galactic isn’t the entire New Space community. I would expect them to fail, if they spread out to niche markets like unmanned suborbital without proven business under their belt. The current strategy of developing a profitable, focused space tourism business sounds better than any alternatives offered in this thread.
Karl,
Well that is two posts that disappeared into cyberspace.
So let’s try this one last time.
[[[But needless to say, I don’t believe that your business would suffer if you steered us to public information which backs your claim.]]]
It’s the job of the marketing departments at the New Space firms to identify new markets. Its not my job.
I will skip repeating my comment about Spaceshiptwo being just a promotional lost leader for the Virgin brand group.
It’s the job of the marketing departments at the New Space firms to identify new markets. Its not my job.
Currently on this thread, it’s your word that there exists a potential SRE market of the size you claim.
I will skip repeating my comment about Spaceshiptwo being just a promotional lost leader for the Virgin brand group.
That’s a counterproductive argument for claiming that VG should be paying more attention to the SRE market. If they profit from even a money losing space tourism business then where’s the incentive to move into the unproven SRE market?
Hmmm, appears to be hanging up again. I will split it into two posts.
Karl,
[[[Currently on this thread, it’s your word that there exists a potential SRE market of the size you claim.]]]
And its up to you to take or leave it. This is a blog, not an academic paper. Or a report to a client.
And here is the missing comment which didn’t post.
[[[I would expect them to fail, if they spread out to niche markets like unmanned suborbital without proven business under their belt.]]]
Why? Virgin Galactic is following the classic lost leader strategy to promote the Virgin brand name so profits aren’t necessary, not when the entire investment required for Richard Branson is less then the cost of a single commercial wide-body aircraft. And if they are worried about their brand name they could just create a flanking brand for it.
And it does appear unmanned orbital launches are on their agenda.
I had a link for Flight Global com, perhaps that is what is getting hung up in a spam filter.
So it was the link that was hanging up the posts…
As a side note, I thought New Space firms had done their homework on commercial markets since they claim that to be their focus, but if not that is simply not my problem. Sorry.