From a scholar of the classics:
…we should pay attention to a growing concern in the southeastern Mediterranean: A bankrupt Greece has alienated its patrons in northern Europe, has alienated the U.S. through years of anti-American rhetoric, has little or no financial resources, and will be facing cutbacks in its military — and a newly assertive Turkey is carving out a position of influence in the region as the real, and far more serious, representative of Islamic government, perhaps in the fashion of the old Ottomans.
Though actually, the old Ottomans would be a preferable (though not good) alternative to the new Wahhibist fundamentalists. At the least, it’s bad news for the Greeks on Cyprus, but allowing Turkey into NATO is making less and less sense.
There’s a power struggle going on in Turkey. Does it want to continue to have a secular form of government and align itself with the West as its leadership and military have done since Atatürk or does it look to the Muslim world? It is in our best interests not to push Turkey away from the West.
In recent years there have been many centrifugal forces gnawing away at established institutions. Unfortunately it is very easy to dismiss supposedly outlier issues as irrelevant in the grander scheme of things. Yet the fact is the world is a chaotic system and a small localized event can have a large impact into the future.
Having a weak Greece or an antagonist Turkey is anathema to the stability of Europe. An unstable Europe, weak to Asian invasion, is against the best interests of the US. If any single power ever dominates the Eurasian landmass, they will not settle with just that for long.
I think it is inevitable in the long term that the US will have to refocus its strategy into the American continent. That the US will have to scale back its military commitments in Asia, and possibly in Europe as well. It is increasingly untenable, uneconomic, to support the kind of foreign military presence the US presently has. This will lead to increased world instability as regional power balance shifts around.
Hey Rand, Turkey joined NATO in 1952. Did you mean letting them join the EU?
I think he meant EU, too.
Letting Turkey into the EU would make less sense still. Largely because in such a circumstance it would be impossible to stop unlimited numbers of Islamist nutters from getting into the rest of the EU.
impossible to stop unlimited numbers of Islamist nutters
Too late for that, we’ve got plenty of Islamist nutters and plenty of homegrown nutters already. I’m in favour of EU joining the EU eventually, provided they abandon their shift towards the Arab and muslim world, but it’s going to take a long time. As an interim measure I wish the EU would abandon its corrupt Common Agricultural Policy (a good if unlikely idea anyway) and remove its restrictions on import of agricultural products from Turkey. Other products can be freely imported already. They should also allow free movement of professionals. I believe this would strenghten the hand of the secularist, pro-Western segment of Turkish society.
I dunno. Turkey attempting to govern it’s newly-annexed province of Greece should enfeeble both of them for decades. I count that win-win
The EU should stop paying subsidies so farmers do not produce, establishing production quotas, or other such sterile measures. IMO the CAP was originally a good idea since the whole deal was to make the EU self sufficient in terms of food production. Today it makes no sense at all. Today funding is provided to limit production, instead of increasing it. The CAP is used as a way to placate farmers for voting in the next election.
I also agree that Turkey should join the EU, provided they have safeguards to ensure Turkey remains a secular state. Having a stable and prosperous Turkey is important for Europe in general. As for stemming migrant flows by not letting Turkey join the EU I doubt that would work very well. Germany for example has many Turkish immigrants despite Turkey not being in the EU. In the past letting countries join the EU has reduced migrant flows in the mid and long term. If Turkey was in the EU, it would make more sense to move industries to Turkey, given there is a common market, rather than move Turkish workers to other EU countries.
If Turkey was in the EU, it would make more sense to move industries to Turkey, given there is a common market, rather than move Turkish workers to other EU countries.
They already have a customs union, so most goods can pass unhindered, but – crucially – not agricultural goods. As I understand it agriculture is the dominant sector of the economy in Anatolia, where the AK party is strongest. Having strong economic links with the EU in that area should help keep Turkey aligned with the West and its values. The idea behind allowing free passage of professionals is twofold: to increase remittances and thus increase general wealth and increase the economic importance of good ties with the west and to increase cultural ties to the West among the elite.