Thoughts from Ron Bailey, on running out of stuff. I found this interesting:
The folks at the GPRI point out that the phosphorus in just one person’s urine would be close to the amount needed to fertilize the food supply for one person. So why not recycle urine? In fact, NoMix toilets have been invented which allow for the collection of urine separate from solid wastes, allowing phosphorus and nitrogen to be recovered and used as fertilizer. In addition, crop biotechnologists are exploring ways to produce plants that dramatically increase the efficiency with which they use phosphorus, which would reduce the amount fertilizer needed to grow a given amount of food.
Urine recycling would be not just handy, but perhaps crucial, for space settlements.
On the broader point, as long as we have affordable energy and knowledge there’s no reason to run out of anything. The biggest problem is the overabundance of stupidity on the part of those who would rule our lives.
Phosphorus is available at 0.1% in average crustal rock, so in the worst case we mine lots of granite for it. Efficiency improvements reduce the amount of granite we need to mine, but the recycling doesn’t have to reach 100% for things to be sustainable.
The article mentions lithium. There are selective absorbers for lithium that can extract it from seawater (where it occurs at 150 ppb). And I’ll note that even if lithium is used for fusion reactors fuel cycles, most of Li is the Li-7 isotope, while the fusion cycles consume (mostly) Li-6. “Depleted lithium” would work just fine for most non-nuclear applications.
When do we hit peak stupidity?
Just like the Soviets who tried to jerk the West around by cutting off Zaire’s Cobalt supply, political elites today seek to jerk everyone around using perceived shortages to increase their political power.
We did indeed loose the cold war. Now we have to win it.
“as long as we have affordable energy and knowledge there’s no reason to run out of anything”.
This can’t be repeated enough. On the one hand we simply haven’t mined a significant fraction of the crust yet. On the other hand, all the various types of rock can be upconverted into non-oxidized forms. With enough energy.
@Titus – stupidity is a constant, like gravity. All we can do is create electoral systems that try to select against it.
@Cato – the phosphorus shortage is a real issue, but it’s hardly the only agricultural mineral shortage. The American food supply is deficient in all sorts of things. Half of all adults are deficient in copper, which is linked to the rising rates of heart disease.
But the solution is pretty simple: recognize the cycle of minerals.
Minerals are in the soil. –> Plants absorb minerals from the soil, and grow berries. –> Bears eat the berries, and absorb the minerals –> Bears shit in the woods, and soil absorbs the minerals.
Rinse, repeat.
Modern civilization has broken this loop by not shitting in the woods. Instead we flush it into the ocean, leaving the soil more deficient in everything every year. A municipal solid waste composter that collected our liquid and solid wastes, composted it over the course of a year, and sold it back to farmers would fix this pretty quickly.
Does the Moon have Neodymium?
See lunar KREEP
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KREEP
Did you do know that we process urine on ISS right now? Have been since November of 2008. Of course we throw away the portion that has the things you are trying to recover.
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/10/17/recycle-urine-space.html
“Instead we flush it into the ocean, leaving the soil more deficient in everything every year. ”
Nonsense. It is mostly land applied.
It’s my understanding that most of the phosphate applied to farmland ends up being immobilized in mineral forms that are only sparingly soluble. Sparingly does not mean totally insoluble, though, so soils are building up a phosphate deposit that reduce the need for further application, assuming erosion is sufficiently controlled.
Heh, they already teach people how to recycle urine during basic training. All one needs is an empty canteen and a will to survive. A roll of breathe mints wouldn’t hurt though.
I watched one documentary about homeopathic treatments. One that they use in China for a number of ailments is from the salts left behind from a boiled down cauldron of urine. Mmmmm mmmm you know that’s got to smell just lovely and great.
That brings new meaning to the term “tanning bed.”
Heh, I keep a copy of an advert that was in the July 1920 Popular Science claiming we would run out, in a couple of decades or earlier, of — coal! To which the answer was, of course, “alternative” energy, in that case hydroelectric dams: ever so much better, greener, renewable, and yes, government subsidized.
Titus Says:
April 28th, 2010 at 8:04 am
The biggest problem is the overabundance of stupidity on the part of those who would rule our lives.
When do we hit peak stupidity?”
We have developed reserves for at least 70 years with more fields opening every year. While the resource is not unlimited, we are in no danger of shortages. For temporary low availability, it can be mined locally through most of the world.
Here, I thought it was an inexhaustible resource. Maybe I’ve consumed a bit too much stupidity.
Don’t stand too close. The vapors are toxic.
IMHO, absolute stupidity is a constant percentage. The problem is that, as society has become more complex, relative stupidity has accelerated off the chart. We are fast entering the Peter Principle Society, where we have collectively risen to our level of incompetence.
“Here, I thought it was an inexhaustible resource. Maybe I’ve consumed a bit too much stupidity.”
It eventually has a self limiting nature because it’s a radioactive material. When it hits critical mass, it’s elements transmute into other realms. See “Jonestown”.
Don’t stand too close. The vapors are toxic.
Good to know. I’ll hold my breath when I eat it from now on. And um, stand further from my plate?
Mmm! Good book title there, m8.
I recall from “The Worst Jobs in History Series” that one of them in Britain was to go from door to door collecting urine which people set out in bottles. It was used in making gunpowder.
When do we hit peak stupidity?
Leave it to Titus 🙂
Am I a pessimist or an optimist? I keep thinking we’ve reached the peak only to be proved wrong the following year.