I got an email today, that I thought I’d just publish:
People don’t seem to be to sympathetic to the workers who will lose their jobs with the loss of the shuttle and Constellation. If I understand you correctly, neither program should be continued just for jobs. I tend to agree with that, however, what should be done to help the people who will lose their jobs?
It would be interesting to know more about the employment situation, what type of jobs will be lost, how easy or hard it will be for workers to find new jobs, and if the government has any ideas on helping these people find work.
Do you think that there will be skilled workers who will now start their own space related companies?
Any insights would be appreciated.
Others may have better insight than I. But I would note that generally, if some event results in a loss of jobs in an area with a jobs shortage, people tend to have to move. It’s a very tough time for those losing NASA-related jobs, because it’s a tough job market out there. On the other hand, a lot of people are hurting, and might even resent the notion that there’s something special about space jobs that those losing them should get special treatment.
This may in fact have been an historical high-water mark for space-related Brevard County employment, and the end of a half-century era, when the region boomed due to a fortunate happenstance of geography. But the fundamental problem of space is the high cost of access to it. And in principle, if not practice, the purpose of NASA spending should not be job creation, but wealth or knowledge creation. If we are to reduce the costs of space transportation, we need to either reduce the number of people who work on it (because their paychecks and benefits are where the vast majority of those costs come from) or dramatically increase their productivity. Neither Shuttle or Constellation offered any prospects for doing that. Commercial might, in the longer run, but it’s not going to do anything to help the current NASA work force.
And if we develop the kinds of vehicles that we need for true significant cost reduction (fully reusable), there’s nothing magic about the Cape, in terms of launch location. So I don’t expect to ever see the levels of space employment there again that we saw from the Cold-War-legacy program. That’s a reality with which the local officials are simply going to have to come to grips.
My dad worked for Boeing when the SST was canceled. I will forever remember the billboard on I-5 that said, “Will the last person to leave Seattle please turn out the lights?”
Ken,
I used to travel through there and remember that billboard. Those same kinds of signs have popped up countrywide, as plants or whole industries have crashed. I remember them in the smaller mill towns in NC and SC as the companies moved manufacturing offshore and to Central America.
Rand,
the loss of jobs in aerospace may be new to that writer, but it’s not new to that industry. When I worked in nuclear power in the 80’s, a great majority of the senior engineers I encountered had come from aerospace.
I am in no way saying NASA should be a WPA type works program. But your e-mailer may not know that history. He is ONLY thinking that with the economy flat, there’s just nowhere for those people to go, and that keeping NASA, the Cape, Huntsville, etc going, feeds them when no one else can. But going back to my experiences in the 80’s, some of those engineers were out of work in their engineering fields a few YEARS before they found engineering jobs in nuclear power.
A less command-oriented economy would be a good first step. And by that I mean, less command-oriented than it was before I was born.
McGehee, your comment seems likely to make people wonder how old you are! It would be really interesting if you’re over 93 (born before America’s entry into the War to End All Wars!)
Rand,
This study has a pretty good summary of the Shuttle workforce in Florida
http://www.floridatoday.com/assets/pdf/A9150405120.PDF
Basically like you said the workforce will disperse. A lucky few might stay in the aerospace field, but given the shrinking demand for aerospace workers most will be forced to move into other industries for the remainder of the their careers. For some it will be technical jobs. For others it might be as a local handyman. I remember a guy who used to manage the apartment I lived in when I went to college in the 1970’s. He originally worked in Houston, I believe with the simulators, during Apollo. It will be the early 1970’s all over again.
But unspoken yet is the discussion of the major ripple effect this will have on schools of engineering. Already aerospace engineers tend to be one of the lowest paid engineering fields. Combined this with the declining demand and pay will likely go lower relative to other fields, making a career in aerospace engineering very unattractive to students. In these budget tight times universities are looking to close departments and engineering departments, because of the high cost of the facilities and labs they need and the low enrollments are often a prime target. Add in falling enrolments as students once interested in engineering find other fields and I expect several aerospace engineering departments will disappear completely or be merged into other engineering departments over the next few years.
I also expect to see an impact on the interest of students in general to study science and math in high school. Think of the ‘October Sky” effect in reverse. Why spend time learning engineering or science when you will only become unemployed like Uncle Earl, living in that old trailer? Better study something useful like finance or accounting so you are able to go to Wall Street and make a killing in the market.
I’ve worked for 35 years in the IT industry. During all that time, I’ve never worked for one company for more than five (5) years (except working for myself). I’ve been laid off twice, and also had a company I worked for close its doors. So, (a) I have great sympathy for the folks who might lose their jobs, because I know what it’s like, and (b) I’d like to welcome them to the real world.
As Jerry Pournelle has been noting for the past 25 years or so, NASA primary mission appears to be to keep irs own rice bowls filled while (until recently) doing its best to block any real private competition. My quip a few years ago is that NASA leaders for 40 years have been the Pharisees of space: “For ye shut up the kingdom of heaven against men: for ye neither go in yourselves, neither suffer ye them that are entering to go in.” (Matthew 23:13, KVJ). ..bruce..
I feel for these folks too, but I have to echo the “welcome to the real world” advice. I grew up wanting to be an astronaut; I studied Aerospace Engineering before switching to a more general BS. I’ve spent my working career in IT jobs making good to reasonable wages in many different jobs.
Job security is being ready for the NEXT position.
Blue Origin is advertising positions …. they are just a few miles from that old Boeing sign in Seattle.
I’m saving for my ticket. So please, celebrate the end of the NASA design bureau, and build me a space ship.
–F
PS: I think that VirginGalactic should carry a load of women up in its first flight to bust the silly “record” NASA is blathering about this week.
As Jerry Pournelle has been noting for the past 25 years or so, NASA primary mission appears to be to keep irs own rice bowls filled
Quite right. The Exploration Directorate has been a largely useless make-work program since Apollo. It’s just become more blatant and honest about what old space was about in its reaction to the new space policy.
It’s not just Florida. There are quite a few programs, GMD, FCS, F-22 and a host off others that are being cut back or canceled. These have resulted in big layoffs in the aerospace sector over the country. It’s been my experience that aerospace workers tend to be Republican oriented, so I guess there’s no hope of getting any of that sweet Corruptocrat targeted stimulous slush fund cash.
bfwebster, bravo, finally someone who says it like it is. I also work in IT. A few years ago a guy I used to work for started a conversation the ex-coworkers usually start a conversation “so where you working now?”, I told him I was still working for the company we both had been working for 5 years previously.. his next question was “what’s wrong with you?”
This might be baffling to some people.. especially government employees, but in the IT world you don’t earn more by going to your boss and asking for a raise, you earn more by *getting a better job*.
I’m in construction and right now am settling for a check about the same as I was getting in 1980 to help keep the company alive until the market turns, and it’s 49% my company. Well over half of the construction companies in this area are gone, with almost all the rest cut back to the bone. I don’t want a bail out of the construction industry, and resent the idea of subsidising industries that create jobs instead of wealth.
How many of the newspace companies depend on ‘properly trained’ engineers with all the right papers? I would bet that most of them get most of their results from self taught people with some back up from industry experienced people. This to me is an attempt to preserve a NASA work force that to a large degree is irrelevant to the future commercial flight methods.
What percentage of the jobs being protected are place holders with little or no real world value.
NASA and other government agencies have been moaning and groaning for the past ten years that the average age of their workforce has been climbing toward the retirement level, and that Something Significant Had To Be Done to hire bunches of new young engineers and scientists who would replace the grayhairs. And in general the entire traditional aerospace industry and indeed the whole of the engineering profession has been making the same point — which explains why you hear so much about the need for NASA to inspire the coming generation of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineeering, Mathematics) professionals.
Well… NASA isn’t going to be so inspiring. The old guys and gals are going to retire as soon as they get the paperwork filled out; their industrial counterparts will fall back on social security and their 401Ks as quickly as possible. They aren’t going to be replaced by hordes of youngsters, either at NASA or Boeing or LockMart or at NOAA or C&GS or the Bureau of Mines or wherever. And in a few years, the 700 billion dollar per year defense bill is going to be pared down to 400 or 500 billion bucks to cope with the budget deficit, and when military procurement takes it in the neck, the engineers and scientists working in that area are also headed for retirement, also without repacement.
That’s the only conceivable outcome given our budget realities and unemployment levels. And while it ain’t going to be pretty for the folks in the aerospace/defence business getting laid off who aren’t old enough or financially set up for retirement, they’re hardly going to be visible amongst all the other unemployed/underemployed people in this country.
And if the USA ever does need an army of scientists and engineers again, as it did during the 1940s and the 1960’s …. we’ve an H1-B program to take care of that. Who cares if the kids are inspired?
Interesting comments.
I think the loss of jobs would be easier to swallow if there was a program to help the workers. Send them back to school to get new skills, help find them jobs in other industries, or even resume writing and interviewing seminars. When making large workforce cuts in private industry, it is uncommon but not unheard of to help the soon to be fired find new jobs.
The PDF Thomas linked, identifies several different industries for people to seek employment in. After identifying open positions in these fields how much harder is it to provide workers a list or database to enable their job search? Hire a headhunter perhaps?
Maybe that is already happening? If so, someone in the Obama administration should be publicizing it. Regardless of effectiveness, it would be good pr.
I hope that instead of finding work in other industries that some of these people will be starting their own companies. Too bad the barriers of entry are so high.
You know some of us are out in the trenches with the future engineers and we’re encouraging them to have multiple skills (like having an EE or Computer Engineering undergrad and a CS or MIS/MBA masters) so they can be flexible and get a job in either hardware or software.
The big companies know that there is an upcoming problem and landed resources aren’t the solution. The glut of baby-boomer engineers is working it’s way through the system. We have had an imbalance in the staffing pyramid – the boomers have inverted the staffing pyramid, now we’re going to see the correction to a balanced and correctly oriented one with more junior engineers than senior engineers.
Software tooling & computer hardware have automated a lot of the “busywork” that caused the need for hordes of engineers/engineering management.
that’s my 2 cents . . .
This might be baffling to some people.. especially government employees, but in the IT world you don’t earn more by going to your boss and asking for a raise, you earn more by *getting a better job*.
Very true. Plus, other companies are always trying to steal top performers from each other. My mistake back in the 80’s was loyalty. I’m still trying to learn to be more disloyal ;-( It just isn’t in me, to my careers loss.
I picked a month and every year got a raise… until the other programmers decided to collectively bargain… the only year I didn’t get a raise.
I’ve worked for 35 years in the IT industry. During all that time, I’ve never worked for one company for more than five (5) years (except working for myself). I’ve been laid off twice, and also had a company I worked for close its doors. So, (a) I have great sympathy for the folks who might lose their jobs, because I know what it’s like, and (b) I’d like to welcome them to the real world.
Ditto. I was caught in the big military drawdown back in 1992. At age 35 and with 13 years on active duty, I suddenly found myself having to start all over. At the start of 1992, there were 2000 people in the Air Force in my career classification. At the end of the year, there was 105, a 94% kill ratio. I didn’t take it personally. What can you do when the Wall comes down but face reality and start over?
So, I assessed my skills and updated my training to do what I’m good at – IT. Can I call them or what? The 1990s were great times, the 2000s not so much. I’ve worked for the same company for the past 15 years as a defense contractor. Yeah, it’s risky especially with the Democrats in control of everything but at least I know my job can’t be outsourced to India. I enjoy my job, make good money, and I’m good at what I do. Given uncertain times, all I can do is to continue what I’ve always done – live without debt and save as much as possible while still enjoying life.
I do feel for those people losing their jobs, I really do. However, when the military was being downsized by over 25% (up to 33%) in the 1990s, I didn’t hear too many people weaping about lost careers. All I heard was talk about how to spend the “peace dividend.”
“50% will go to the cities”
“50% will go to health care”
“50% will go to reduce the deficit”
“50% will go to reduce taxes”
“50% will go to…”
You get the idea.
Heh. Let’s put it this way: I was born before JFK’s tax cuts.
I tend to agree with mike shupp – I watched a program showing the refurb of a SSME and most of the guys doing the real work seemed to past retirement. Only the management seemed younger, but not by much.
My questions is that out of all the job that are to be lost, how many are non-transferrable (i.e. engineers [mainly due to the shrinking industry sector]) and how many are skills that can be used in the other businesses (from cleaners, canteen, security through to admin, PAs and managers)?
Andy
Of course none of the civil servants will lose jobs, it’s the contractor workforce that will be out of work. Unfortunately for those of us that have more than a few years of experience, there are few jobs to go to. Many tech companies won’t even look at resumes from aerospace workers, as I found out a while back during the post-Challenger layoffs – and forget trying to get an IT job of any kind if you are over 40, even with years of experience.
There are some gub’mint programs for workers whose jobs were outsourced. I spent nine months of 2009 retraining into another career field when most of our company’s jobs went to China. I graduate, get my certification, and find out all the entry-level positions have dried up while I was in school! Every ad I see wants two to five years’ experience. The school is dropping that particular program because only ONE of the last three classes’ graduates has gotten a job in that field.
I’ve told all the shops I’ll take just about anything; still no job. It’ll come down to janitorial, or assembly, or several part-time jobs just to make ends meet.
Talk about frustrating. . .
Sorry, Rand, just had to vent.
As googaw noted:
“The Exploration Directorate has been a largely useless make-work program since Apollo. It’s just become more blatant and honest about what old space was about in its reaction to the new space policy.”
There’s a reason Griffin booted Steidle from ESMD … he actually recognized reality and built a program that would, you know, work.
the loss of jobs in aerospace may be new to that writer, but it’s not new to that industry. When I worked in nuclear power in the 80’s, a great majority of the senior engineers I encountered had come from aerospace
It may well be that way again. I work for Westinghouse and we are hiring engineers for the new generation of nuke plants we are building in China and in the US (Texas, Georgia, South Carolina). westinghousenuclear.com
When I get resumes that say “I spent 20 years filling out paperwork for NASA” and the person wants a job doing practical stuff, all I can do is sigh and turn em down. It’s a pity the NASA people, including contractors, only know how to work the NASA way, which ain’t the way the rest of the world works. I tried a NASA guy in my shop once. All he did was bitch about how I should do things his way instead. Had to let him go.
NASA ruins good engineers.
Guess I don’t have a lot of sympathy; I work in aviation and am used to having to move to stay gainfully employed. My job is sufficiently specialized that if we get downsized, there’s very little chance of finding another business within a reasonable commute.
But if otherwise well-qualified people have been that tainted by the NASA way of doing things, it’s truly a shame. You’d think there’d be work for them at some of the NewSpace companies once they build traction…
Pat C — About that “taint,” judging from my experience….
Suppose you’ve got say a small construction firm. You’ve just got a subcontract for a few millions to do the electrical work on a new building and you’ve hired an ex-NASA engineer to work as a foreman.
What’s his first priority apt to be? Reviewing the blueprints for completeness. Making sure that the EPA statement doesn’t hide any surprises. Checking to ensure that your hiring plans will satisfy state and local requirements for diversity. Roughing out a schedule and a materials list. Getting approval from the prime contractor for after hours access and material deliveries.
What do YOU want the lazy SOB to be doing? Pushing a shopping cart at Home Depot buying copper wire and 3-phase outlets. But the bastard is totally clueless! He has no idea of what working for a living is about! God damn all those worthless f***s ruined by that asshole space business!
And the shit-sucking prick probably wants to be paid more than ten bucks an hour! With health insurance to boot! And maybe time off for a psychiatrist to hold his widdle handie and tell him he’s misunderstood! The whole country is just going to the dogs!
forget trying to get an IT job of any kind if you are over 40, even with years of experience.
Jobs exist, but you have to be competitive with lower wage workers. Better to form a software company and meet some market need. Just try not to be another company that charges customers for the mistakes you’ve incorporated in your own software.