Note: I’ve been continually updating this post, and will probably continue to do so all day, and keep it at the top. New posts are below it.
Thoughts on the health-care deform by Jimmy Pethokoukis.
[Update a few minutes later]
Nationalizing health care by proxie:
Insurance companies are now heavily regulated government contractors. Way to get big business out of Washington! They will clear a small, government-approved profit on top of their government-approved fees. Then, when healthcare costs rise — and they will — Democrats will insist, yet again, that the profit motive is to blame and out from this Obamacare Trojan horse will pour another army of liberals demanding a more honest version of single-payer.
The Obama administration has turned the insurance industry into the Blackwater of socialized medicine.
Like the financial crisis, it’s right out of the standard fascist playbook. Screw up the market with government regulations, then claim that government regulations are required to fix it. Rinse, repeat, until they control every aspect of our lives.
[Update a couple minutes later]
Is the tax power infinite?
Americans today are not bound to meekly accept the most far-ranging assertions of congressional power based on large extrapolations from Supreme Court cases that themselves come from a short period (the late 1930s and early 1940s) when the Court was more supine and submissive to claims about centralized power than was any other Supreme Court before or after in our history. American citizens, in the political process and in their personal lives, will ultimately have the final word on the Constitution.
Let’s hope that ultimately comes soon.
[Update a while later]
“Every power grab is the base camp for the next power grab.”
[Update a while later]
Ten Obama promises that reached their expiration date this morning.
[Update a couple minutes later]
Americans: the health care debate wasn’t about health care at all.
You can fool some of the people all of the time, but not all of them.
[Update mid morning]
Dennis Prager: the Cold Civil War has begun:
Thank God this civil war is non-violent. But the fact is that the Left and the rest of the country share almost no values. The American value system and the leftist value system are irreconcilable. If the Left wins, American values lose. If American values win, the Left loses.
I like his idea of calling the Democrats “Social Democrats.”
And Mark Steyn has some depressing thoughts on our accelerating journey to Declinistan.
[Update a while later]
Awakening a sleeping giant:
Instead of being discouraged by passage of health care reform, tea party activists across the country say the defeat is a rallying cry that makes them more focused than ever on voting out any lawmaker who supported the measure.
“We’re not going to stop. Obviously, the whole tea party movement started because we’re about smaller government and less spending and less taxes. There is absolutely no way we can pay for this,” said Denise Cattoni, state coordinator for Illinois Tea Party, an umbrella group for about 50 groups from around Illinois.
Cattoni says the health care defeat doesn’t deflate tea party activists. “We couldn’t stop it because of the shenanigans that went on in Washington,” Cattoni said. “People are definitely more driven today than they were yesterday without a doubt.”
Actually, the giant awoke last year, as we saw in Virginia, New Jersey and (most of all) Massachusetts. And it’s not going back to sleep any time soon, contra the fantasies of the Democrats. It’s not only awake, now — it’s enraged. The retribution in November will be huge.
[Update a couple minutes later]
I just noticed this quote at the end of the article from an idiot:
While tea party activists have made themselves heard, University of North Florida political science professor Matthew Corrigan said the movement alone won’t be enough to oust incumbents.
“Do they have energy? Yes. Have they been getting into the media? Yes, but they still haven’t sold me on the fact that they can swing elections,” Corrigan said.
Tell it to Martha Coakley. If I were one of his students, I’d want my course tuition back.
[Update a few minutes later]
Kevin Williamson says that ObamaCare will never happen. Unfortunately, it’s not as good a news as it sounds:
Our budget deficit is currently about 10 percent of GDP and going higher. Greece’s is 12.7 percent of GDP — significantly higher, sure, but not outrageously so. At the end of fiscal 2009, U.S. federal government debt equaled 83 percent of GDP, 53 percent of which is held by the public. (Another 30 percent is “intra-government” debt, meaning money owed to the mythical Social Security trust fund and the like. The usual approach is to talk only about publicly held debt and to pretend that the rest does not represent real obligations, which is malarkey.) But even that does not tell the whole story: Official government debt figures do not account for the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac obligations taken on by the government, and those amount to $5 trillion, i.e. more than all 2009 federal spending. They also don’t count remaining liabilities related to the Wall Street bailout.
So here’s a prediction for you: Obamacare is not going to happen, regardless of the fact that the president is going to sign it into law today, regardless of what happens in the 2010 and 2012 elections, and regardless of any speech given anywhere in Washington. The government’s ability to simply say “Make it so!” and ignore economic reality is coming up against its limit. If Nancy Pelosi thinks the Republicans are obstructionists, wait until she wants to borrow money from people who don’t want to lend it to her and don’t have to run for reelection.
[Bumped]
If I wanted to be in the insurance industry (which thank God I do NOT), I’d sit down with this steaming pile of bill and start looking through it. Nothing this long and convoluted can lack for loopholes. I suspect there is a way to set up a new kind of company, or co-op, or non-profit association, so that people who wish to get together and pool their risks and buy health care for those who need it can do so. Call it “health-care communes”. I suspect a lot of people are going to be looking for some way to manage their health care risk without participating in the government-regulated market.
I’ve been thinking the same thing. I’m sure an “underground” samizdat insurance industry will spring up if this thing persists.
“Heath Care Co-Op” has a great ring because it co-ops (oh, see wut i did ther?) the PC lingo and conjures up images of white middle-age soccer moms in Land’s End fleesewear tending to vegetable gardens while watching Martha on HGTV and drinking Starbucks. It’s unassailable!
To be clear: If you’re against Heatlh Care Co-Ops, you’re against Baby Boomer mom and the apple pie she bought down at “Fresh & Easy”!
You can fool some of the people all of the time, but not all of them.
But if you can make enough of a generation dependent on entitlements you don’t have to worry about fooling anyone any more.
“Americans today are not bound to meekly accept the most far-ranging assertions of congressional power based on large extrapolations from Supreme Court cases that themselves come from a short period (the late 1930s and early 1940s) when the Court was more supine and submissive to claims about centralized power than was any other Supreme Court before or after in our history. ”
The only thing that concerns me is the reason this was so meekly accepted was that people where desperate and humbled by the Great Depression and willing to accept anything from anyone who promised better times, and we got another one of those coming down the pipe, thanks in part to this very bill.
So it was really about politics? Well, I’m glad you’re here to tell us these things. Chewie, take the professor downstairs and plug him into the hyperdrive… /hansolo
Rand, I voted for Scott Brown but I would not read too much into it, nationwide. Scott Brown won not because Massachusetts voters love him (they don’t), but because they REALLY hate Martha Coakley. As in, “Amirault daycare case” and “Standing outside Fenway Park? In the cold? Shaking hands?” A Democrat with less imperial attitude and no record of keeping innocent people in jail would have won.
For me there are two points of focus. Both are ignored by the average person and both will get you labeled a cookoo.
1) Mark Steyn’s point that no matter how great a nation we may be; no matter how impressive the walls of our castle; We can fall. We can decline at a pace and to a point that is unimaginable.
2) Randy Barnett’s assertion of the presumption of liberty in the 9th amendment needs to be understood and carry as much force as the 1st and 2nd ammendments.
Our decline has been happening for a long time. Every day some politician affirms a contradiction of the above two points. We need to start calling them on it every time because every time adds to our decline.
Actually, the giant awoke last year, as we saw in Virginia, New Jersey and (most of all) Massachusetts. And it’s not going back to sleep any time soon, contra the fantasies of the Democrats. It’s not only awake, now — it’s enraged. The retribution in November will be huge.
The Dems were going to lose seats no matter what, simply as a function of the unemployment rate and the large number of seats they currently hold. But it doesn’t look like health care is going to hurt them: USA Today has 49% saying it’s a good thing, vs. 40% saying otherwise.
Health care will not hurt them….but passing legislation forcing Americans to buy a product will hurt them because its unconstitutional.
I think we all need to take a deep breath and chill for a while. All of this talk about how we are going to bounce back and push through repeal legislation, well, this is just talk for now and I don’t see where it gets us. Let the victorious faction on Health Care Reform bask in their own glory and gloat.
I think Megan McCardle has it right about predictions. There are some hard and fast predictions, or at least one can make Erlich-Simon-esque wagers on the outcome of Health Care Reform (oh Jim, oh Jim, there is a young woman opening a “book” on things that you dearly believe . . . oh Jim!)
No one really knows how this is going to turn out. Yeah, it sticks in the craw to see Jim’s smug bearded mug, it sticks in the craw to see every reporter on the TV look like they just converted to the Unification Church (you know, the Moonies? The Moonie Grin?) But no one, and I mean no one knows if this health care thing will really work out, will be a flat neutral, or the most massive Charlie Foxtrot ever.
The stock market doesn’t seem to be much bothered by it. Does that mean that the “fix” is in with the insurance companies? Maybe that is a feature and not a bug because for a country to proper it does have to take care of its rich people if not its monied interests.
With people poised to get all kinds of “goodies”, I don’t think it pays to be the scold and say, “You, 26-ager over there, get out of your Mom’s basement, get a job, and get your own health car!”, or “You, geezer over here, didn’t know you were going to get kicked out of Medicare Advantage”, or “You, yeah you just diagnosed with diabetes, the insurance is stuck with you and you are going to make it expensive for all of us.” Like I said, this is all up-side and goodfeelings right now. Just let some downside develop (in time, people, in time), and that bearded face won’t being show itself in public as much.
The stock market doesn’t seem to be much bothered by it.
The market tends to reflect near-term effects, not long-term ones.
Health care will not hurt them….but passing legislation forcing Americans to buy a product will hurt them because its unconstitutional.
The courts have upheld Medicare, which forces us to pay for old-age health coverage, and Social Security, which forces us to pay for old-age and disability benefits. Anything’s possible, but overturn seems very unlikely.
And if the individual mandate is overturned it can be replaced. One suggestion, by Paul Starr, would be to have an opt-out penalty. So you could opt to not have insurance, but you’d make yourself ineligible for exchange subsidies for (say) five years. Apparently Germany has something similar, and it’s managed the free rider problem for them.
Medicare is a tax. It goes to the government. The “healthcare” legislation forces people under penalty of law to buy insurance from private companies (at least until they can be driven out of business so they can get their single-payer wet dream). Big, big difference.
Heard a funny thing today. The legislation calls for hiring some 16,000 new IRS agents to enforce the act. Only, it doesn’t actually allocate any money to hire the agents because that would’ve affected the CBO numbers. There were many accounting tricks there, such as implementing the taxes immediately but not paying out the benefits until several years from now so that the “10 year cost” would be below a trillion dollars. That alone proves the whole program is a sham that will cost far more than the annual taxes collected. On top of that, it legislates huge unfunded mandates to the states, again to keep the CBO numbers relatively low. Anyone outside of government trying to run a business this way would be buried under the jail but this gets applause as a good thing. And to think that Congress’s approval rating is about 11 percent.
I just had a scary idea….
Suppose the individual mandate is struck down as its likely constitutional.
That would leave the no preexisting conditions, and no lifetime cap rules intact. In very short order that would bankrupt or put out of business all insurance companies.
Leaving no choice bu to establish a government system because the free market has failed.
ARghhhhhh!
Jim sez:
Those are payroll taxes. This thing is a direct tax, but it’s not uniform and thus unconstitutional. In truth, it really doesn’t fit
Possibly, but that would be a reflection of the current SCOTUS composition, not the facts of the matter. A legislative fix by the GOP is more likely. Obama wouldn’t veto that because they’ll bundle it with other legislation.
Paul sez:
This is an over-reaction. This new scheme will not sink or float based on “free riders.” Most people “opting out” will be young and making much less money than their pill-popping elders who certainly will not forgo insurance. The penalty is only ~10% of the premiums, so this was never going to be a significant revenue stream. You could kill the penalty altogether, and it wouldn’t make a dent.
The market tends to reflect near-term effects, not long-term ones.
Actually, Rand, the markets probably factored in these effects some time ago as it became apparent that this had a great chance of passing.
I concur with Karl, and I would add that markets factor in the same news only one time.
I don’t think its an overreaction….
If you can’t be turned down for a preexisting condition why would ANY healthy person of ANY age buy insurance?
Just buy the insurance after you get sick and need medical care.
1)The can’t refuse due to preexisting conditions causes the rates to go up.
2)The people who are healthy and marginal insurance consumers drop the insurance.
3)The ones that are sick don’t drop so the insurance pool gets sicker.
4)With a sicker insurance pool the rates must go up return to step 2 and repeat until all private insurance is dead.
The preexisting conditions rule with no mandate kills private insurance.
I wouldn’t go long on health care stocks.
The Dems have proven they can enact any legislation they want, Constitution be damned. It’s pretty easy to see what’s up next:
– universal day care
– universal “elder” (i.e. geriatric) care
– universal funeral care
– universal maternity/paternity leave
– increased taxes on those greedy bastards who want to keep what they earn
– closing of military bases overseas and huge reduction in Defense expenditures to pay for new social programs (and unfunded portions of existing programs)
– runaway inflation as the US government prints money as fast as possible to keep up with budgetary shortfalls
– One by one the G20 nations following Greece into bankruptcy
– directive 10-289
If you can’t be turned down for a preexisting condition why would ANY healthy person of ANY age buy insurance?
This is where journalism fails. It’s not insurance. It’s prepaid medical. If journalists had a shred of credibility they’d call them on it every time.
Possibly, but that would be a reflection of the current SCOTUS composition, not the facts of the matter. A legislative fix by the GOP is more likely. Obama wouldn’t veto that because they’ll bundle it with other legislation.
While it’s hard to say what Obama will think is important or not in the future, I doubt he’ll let the GOP undo this health care change after he spent a year getting it passed. I don’t think there is anything that the GOP can bundle with a reversal of health care change that would stop a veto (unless, of course, the bills manage to get 2/3rd vote in both branches, which is highly unlikely over the next few years IMHO).
As an aside, I think this yet again confirms that we’ll see massive inflation in the US’s future (and probably in the future of most developed world countries). It’s the natural default action for anyone who behaves like the US does, spending well beyond their income for decades, borrowing considerable sums of money, building up huge unfunded liabilities, and ignoring the consequences. There seems to be signs that the US bond market is now considered riskier than the top tier of business debt.
universal “elder” (i.e. geriatric) care
– universal funeral care
Those will be a two-fer called euthanasia
Make that “stagflation.” In fact this next round will make the stagflation of the ’70s look like a one-day hold on your paycheck.
Make that “stagflation.” In fact this next round will make the stagflation of the ’70s look like a one-day hold on your paycheck.
<sarcasm>I don’t see that. Historically, periods of massive uncertainty have always been met with a huge surge of hiring by American business. Besides the inflation fairy has a lot of magic pixie dust for this sort of thing. <\sarcasm>
Actually, Rand, the markets probably factored in these effects some time ago as it became apparent that this had a great chance of passing.
And yet the markets hardly moved as the odds of passage (according to Intrade) fluctuated widely, falling to 30% after Scott Brown’s election before slowly climbing back to nearly 100% last weekend. The markets (unlike Joe Biden) don’t think it’s a big deal either way.
Jim, the markets factored in a lot of things back in the summer of 2008; once it became clear that Obama was going to be the Dem nominee and hence president the markets nosedived. People got their money out of the market then rather than waiting for it to be confiscated by the government now.
Something tells me you produce excellent wool.