That’s what the Dems will have to do to hold on to the House:
Highlighting the GOP’s continued momentum, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report made ratings changes in 25 House races Thursday, all of which favor Republican candidates. The downgrading of Democratic prospects in the races paints an increasingly promising picture for GOP chances of taking over the House next year.
The respected political publication now rates 54 Democratic-held seats in the most highly competitive category — with 26 of them either pure tossups or favoring the Republican candidate. The publication rates 95 Democratic seats in total as potentially vulnerable — over one-third of the entire caucus.
Republicans need to pick up a net of 40 seats to win back control of the House. According to the Cook ratings, the GOP has only six seats that are at risk of flipping.
The list of potentially vulnerable Democrats, according to the Cook Report, includes members who have been virtually untouchable in the past, including Rep. Dave Obey (D-Wis.), the powerful chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, and Rep. Nick Rahall, the chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, who hasn’t faced a competitive race since 1990.
“At this rate, Democrats are likely to lose at least 25-35 seats in the House and would have to bend the current trajectory of the cycle to hold onto their House majority,” wrote Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman.
Actually, when you look at their current behavior (e.g., continuing to attempt to ram health care deform through), it doesn’t even look like they’re trying to keep it. It looks more like they’ve accepted the loss of power, and are just trying to get as much done to advance their totalitarian agenda as possible and hope that it’s irreversible, even if it worsens their losses this year. They play the long game.
Along those notes, a popular argument they make is that once people get it, no matter how undemocratically, they’ll like it so much that it will be impossible to repeal (and unfortunately, the history of other entitlements supports that). They’re drug dealers who want to get us hooked, after which we’re their slaves.
Of course how well the GOP actually does is entirely dependent on how well they learn the lessons of Mass and NY-23.
The other thing to discuss is whether the GOP really wants to win back the majority just yet. It seems unlikely to me that Bill Clinton would have won re-election in 96 if the GOP had not taken Congress in 94; if they win Congress this year, that might be enough to keep the current administration in office for eight years. If the GOP could make gains but stay in the minority this year, they stand to take the whole ball of wax in 2012.
I know, I know, but the American people seem to have a thing for split government. They would need a big reason to give the GOP the keys to the kingdom and four years of complete Democrat control might just do that.
Of course, the problem with a complete GOP victory is that the social conservatives will take advantage and push their agenda, while the tea-baggers and other small-government types languish on the sidelines.
“tea-baggers”
Nice of you to wait to the end of your posting to show your true colors.
Anyone who uses “teabagger” as a political label is, in my opinion, a willing teabaggee.