Dan Rasky, head of commercial space portal at Ames, thinks that with the new administration and administrator, commercial space will get much more support within the agency.
Bolden goals:
Build on ISS investment
Accelerate development of next-generation launch systems
Enhance ability to study earth environment
Lead space sciency to new achievements
Continue cutting-edge tech development
Support innovation of entrepreneurs
Inspire the kids
Rasky got together with Bruce Pittman and Yvonne Cagle and others to form Ames space portal. Hosted a workshop in June 2005 (with endorsement of Mike Griffin, before he went over to the Dark Side). Been supporting conferences and workshops, working with many NewSpace companies. Worked with Steidle to start COTS program (along with Neil Woodward, Steve Isakowitz, Brant Sponberg, Ken Dividian). Eventually moved to JSC with Lindenmoyer and Dennis Stone, and it has been running very well for a NASA commercial-related program. Other new initiatives at other centers: Langley, JSC, etc. that will be revealed in near future.
Started working with SpaceX about three years ago, to provide support with thermal protection technologies (one of the areas not available commercially). Also working with life support. Particularly focused on Dragon, thinking that summer 2010 is a realistic first launch (about a year from now). Meets NASA crew-rated safety margins and failure tolerances. Noting that Elon has had to pull a lot of components in house because he couldn’t find suppliers that would meet schedule or cost. Using NASA-developed PICA for Dragon thermal protection. Only supplier is Fiber-Materials Incorporated, but couldn’t get price or schedule he wanted, so SpaceX is now building in house. SpaceX materials tested at Ames, and passed in December. Very fun to work in such an entrepreneurial environment. Describing a meeting where Elon asked his opinion, and he expressed one, and Elon said, “OK, that’s how we’ll do it.” Elon isn’t building rockets to maximize profits, he’s doing it because he wants to get into space, and that’s a game changer.
John Hogan talking about advanced life support systems. Earth only life support system that can sustain human life indefinitely. Goal is to take a small part of earth (and systems that earth does, can’t live on power bars forever) into space. Earth provides ecosystem services, things that life does to maintain life — air and water purification, radiation protection, waste and pest control, etc. Small spacesuit like a backpacking trip (can’t provide gravity, but all right for short duration). Trying to evolve lighter smaller more energy-efficient suits. ISS provides much more life-support capability than a suit, but requires resupply. Just starting to learn to recover water, moving from perspiration and hygiene water to urine recovery. Still scrubbing and ejecting CO2, but working on systems to transform back to oxygen. Going to moon will stress technology more due to higher resupply costs yet. Will be treating waste, completely recycling water and recovering oxygen from CO2. Mars will require long-term systems, and long-term effects of waste recycling. Holy Grail is completely closed system for sustainability, which may have applications back on earth.
Want to continue to work with commercial partners for this kind of research and tech development, via SBIRs and STTRs.
Yvonne Cagle up now (astronaut, though she hasn’t flown, and retired flight surgeon from the Air Force) to talk about suborbital science program. This is new for NASA. They’re going to purchase rides on commercial vehicles to to research. Presents the greatest opportunity for weightless research (short of expensive orbital) in history. New opportunity for four-minute durations, for training crews, testing, and advancing TRLs in ways never possible before.
Not just about milestone and tech development. Also about work force development. Good opportunity to allow us to maintain research and astronaut proficiency when Shuttle is retired. Also supports public education and outreach with opportunities for hands-on research, both remotely and human-in-the-loop. Want to see human operators on the payloads once safety performance is established (2012 on). Want to see students not just fly research but fly with the research.
Big difference between 23 seconds and four minutes? You can save a life. Can takes four minutes to resuscitate cardiac arrest using compression, but never had enough time to learn how to do it properly (for zero-gee medicine) in subsonic parabolas. Good environment to learn how to restrain patient and equipment in medical emergency, and four minutes a lot more time to practice and train than twenty-three seconds.
Have had two workshops to figure out what you can do with four minutes. Puts up chart of twenty or so previous research areas that can be significantly improved by longer duration. Within two minutes you can actually see things that you don’t see in half a minute (e.g., observing how lunar dust moves through bronchial tubes). Showing chart of flight profile — “hybrid of sounding rocket and parabolic aircraft.” Dirty on both ends, but very good microgravity for at least two minutes. If organized, could refly the same day. Want to explore the “Ignorasphere” where air is too thin to fly but too thick to orbit. Shuttle passes through, but disturbs too much. These vehicles will be able to do sampling and monitoring not previously possible, and also pick up information on entry transition zones that Shuttle crew is too busy to study. Looking for five to ten times more experience in microgravity than we’ve had to date. Scientific community very excited about it. Suborbital transports combine best of both worlds between parabolic aircraft and sounding rockets. Much cheaper than latter, can fly with experiments, rapid turnaround, relatively low entry and exit gees. Has developed equation:
C3 – Commercial, Cost, Customizable
Times Delta Volume (lot more
U3 — User, Unprecedented, Uninterrupted
FO (U3FO) — Frequency, Opportunistic
Equals WE (Workforce development, Education)
C3 * Delta V * UFO = WE
Sees huge opportunities for technology development, career development, and public engagement.
[Elon]’s doing it because he wants to get into space, and that’s a game changer.
Exactly and yet the profits will come. When suborbital was discussed it was always about the size of the tourist market, yet here we see a market that most didn’t imagine… the government being a customer. Once we start moving into space for real we will discover that the real economy is going to be out there with the Earth being a smaller and smaller percentage but growing in size like we’ve never imagined.
All that wealth and most people unable to imagine it.
Ken, what “real economy” is out there? Seriously. What wealth is just sitting there to be exploited?
I’m also baffled by the assertion that the nobody imagined the government being a customer. Where have you been for the past twenty years?
Long term – what are the Real Estate and Private Property rules for space? If I were to find an astroid with a huge vein of gold, do I own it and can profit from it?
What little I know about the UN Space treaty, I think I would not. If that is correct, this will need to change to encourage private enterprise in space.
Regards,
SETI and the Singularity. Why resolution to the ET question is closer than you think.
“If I were to find an astroid with a huge vein of gold, do I own it and can profit from it?
What little I know about the UN Space treaty, I think I ”
In theory, that is a good question. In practice, however, by the time it become economical for an individual to be out prospecting asteroids in his own little ship, gold will not be valuable as a precious metal commodity anymore. Technologies to produce any element from nearby elements on demand (i.e. gold from mercury, for example) would already exist.
Actually, there is probably much more gold in the center of the Earth than in all of the asteroid belt put together.
Heavy metals accumulate in places of larger gravity. Of course, the Earth has some gold, while Jupiter and the Sun would have even more gold atoms in their cores.
Most of the elements in asteroids would be higher up on the periodic table (Carbon, Aluminum, Silicon, Iron), and hence match the elements of the Earth’s crust, and hence are less valuable.
Of course, a small asteroid might have 1 million tons of Aluminum in it, and hence has a high absolute value. But Gold, etc. would not happen.
Private property rules are what they’ve always been for thousands of years. Some claim, others dispute the claim. It’s all a question of whether you have the power to defend your rights.
The only limit to rights is tyranny. It ain’t fair and never has been.
We’ve hidden these facts by rule of law. What happens when government ignores those rules?
The value in space is not gold or any other mineral. The value of space is that there is a lot of it.
Guess I shouldn’t have picked gold!
Let’s take the moon. I go there and build a facility to produce ‘Xlandi’ from moon dust.
Do I own the Xlandi under the UN Space Treaty? Do I own my facility? Do I own the ‘ground’ it sits on? Who (if anyone) issues the deeds / titles to Real Property?
Can the U.S., China, Russia, etc . . . . claim property / real estate?
Regards,
Oh, btw, I agree with Ken – we need a place to get away to. It’s getting real crowded down here.
Do I own my facility? Do I own the ‘ground’ it sits on?
As Anon implied, it all depends. How big are your guns? Who are your friends and how big are their guns? Do you have enough resources to outlast a blockade or siege?
UN Space Treaty or no treaty, I think that if you utilized your own resources to get to the moon/asteroid, staked a claim and actually made something economically valuable out of it most American’s would support the notion of your private property rights to your claim, or at least your right to derive economic benefit from your work. However, many things could change between now and when such a scenario might pass. America’s position in the world might be radically different and you might be up against powers with far different notions of property rights and such.
“Long term – what are the Real Estate and Private Property rules for space? If I were to find an asteroid with a huge vein of gold, do I own it and can profit from it?”
Here’s one (but perhaps not the only) answer for this:
http://www.thespaceshow.com/detail.asp?q=1106
http://archive.thespaceshow.com/shows/1106-BWB-2009-02-16.mp3 (46.5mb podcast)
“Do I own my facility?”
Like a base in Antarctica, I would think so. (But I’m neither a lawyer, nor do I play one on TV)
“Do I own the ‘ground’ it sits on?”
This, I’m not so sure of, even if, as the above podcast asserts, you *are* entitled to what you take from it.. Nor could I say how close is *too* close for someone else to set up their own facility, even in the absence of valuable mineral resources…
Yep – so what’s the incentive to develop anything in space?
Even without the ‘big guns’, the key will be – when I bring the stuff back to earth to sell it, will it get confiscated?
Precedence (can’t speel) being Salvage Companies that discover Spanish Gold Galleons return to port to find the govt. (Federal and State) attempting to confiscate their finds due to ‘Historical Importance’ and such.
If there is no realistic possibility of financial reward, why bother?
Actually, there is probably much more gold in the center of the Earth than in all of the asteroid belt put together.
There’s probably more gold in the Sun than in the rest of the Solar System put together. Doesn’t mean you can get it. The nice thing about the gold and other such things in asteroids is that it’s relatively accessible to someone in deep space.
Anon, reading your post again, I think you really need to look at classifications of asteroids. There’s significant diversity in asteroids with a considerable portion having high nickel-iron content. Those have a similar makeup to the Earth’s core. It is thought that the asteroid belt is the remnants of a protoplanet, complete with iron core, that was broken up by Jupiter.
“Lead space sciency to new achievements”
sciency? I didn’t know Buffy Summers got a job at NASA.
So is Mike’s question about ET real estate… does it matter if the members of the supreme court believe in private property and free enterprise?
Or for someone that grew up on Rocky and Bullwinkle.
Isn’t that why they call it a claim?
Somehow I overlooked your question to me Joe so let me respond.
I’m also baffled by the assertion that the nobody imagined the government being a customer.
Perhaps it was just me 🙂
Ken, what “real economy” is out there? Seriously. What wealth is just sitting there to be exploited?
To answer that question I think we have to understand what an economy and wealth fundamentally are.
Economy fundamentally is people interacting. One planet can hold a few billion people. Space can hold exponentially more. Once those people are out there they will represent a much larger economy than the Earth itself holds.
Wealth is the accumulation of equity by people. Considering wealth just in terms of physical assets you can’t argue that the Earth has more than the universe. But again, wealth is something held by people and space can hold exponentially more people than the Earth itself can.
The key to your confusion probably has more to do with concentration of wealth and at first it looks like the Earth wins hands down, but that’s an illusion. The only way the Earth maintains is position as the seat of wealth will be in ownership of shares of space assets. People now on Earth might own an island. People in space will own entire worlds.
“Good opportunity to allow us to maintain research and astronaut proficiency when Shuttle is retired.”
I knew the Corps wasn’t going to sit on the ground waiting for Orion to fly in 2016 before they could get their astronaut wings.
Maybe the white scarfs will have greater appreciation for private spaceflight if they ride SpaceShipTwo and Lynx during the Gap.
Mr. Glover – thank you for the link and answer. For some reason I didn’t see your comment until tonight.
Regards,
Greetings,
The ‘Big Brother’ comment bothered me. To encourage economic development, there does need to be an assurance of protection from villians, thieves and ruffians. That is a legitimate function of government.
Also, the comment about inability of governments to establish claims. That drives certainty that I will have the ability to use, claim or profit from my property.
A treaty on principles refuting sovereignty (speeling again) does not help to establish a set legal standard. A colony will need to have a base line of common law. At least I would think so. Heinlein’s “Moon is a Harsh Mistress” is an example of a colony not based upon a common law establishment, but instead a corporate holding. (Implied, not stated, is a western european heritage.) The result was a lack of individual rights as we understand it.
I personally would prefer the U.S. to claim sovereignty rather than the old USSR or China. Also, he contradicts himself in the 15 mile limit for the sea. I believe certain countries claim 25 miles. In addition, go find an isolated Pacific Island, some govt will attempt to collect income tax from you – the floating city island has run into sovereignty issues. I return to the example of Sunken Treasure Ships – local govts are very happy to claim ownership of the recovered goods.
Regards,
Regards,
Regards,
oops
— Also, the comment about inability of governments to establish claims. That drives certainty that I will —
Should be — That drive uncertanty that I ——
also, apolgies for the multiple regards.. . . .
Greetings,
The Spanish Galleon example in the pod cast . . . . I believe the initial salvage law was – If you can recover it, it is yours, up to and including ships. Things do change over time. Again the uncertainty principle.
Regards,
Rand I’m a little confused by your comment:
>..Started working with SpaceX about three years ago, to provide support
> with thermal protection technologies (one of the areas not available commercially). ..
There are companies that manufacture and advertize TPS systems ( http://ultramet.com/thermalprotectionsystem.html ) and certainly there are a lot of folks suplying materials that could form the outer heat resistent layer of a hull? So I don’t see what you mean?
So I don’t see what you mean?
It’s not what I mean. I’m just a stenographer. Ask Rasky.
I’m listening to Michael Collins who points out that when Apollo 11 went to the Moon the Earth had a three billion population where today it has six billion heading for unsustainability.
He advocates along with Buzz, who spoke just before him, that we focus on Mars as the first place to grow.
We might be able to grow on Mars, decades from now, but it’s not going to solve the population problem on earth (which isn’t that much of a problem — population is slated to start declining later in the century).
>> .. So I don’t see what you mean?
> Rand Simberg Says:
>
> It’s not what I mean. I’m just a stenographer. Ask Rasky.
Ah sorry.
>… when Apollo 11 went to the Moon the Earth had a three billion population
> where today it has six billion heading for unsustainability.
Actually we have 7 billion now, and all the developed nations aren’t having enough kids to even maintain their populations – much less need to worry about exporting them! And far from running out of resources and becoming unsustainable, virtually every resources is more available and lower cost now! Even despite OPEC and all the extra taxes since the ‘70’s, gas prices dropped bellow what they were in the ‘70s this year.
I’m not seening this argument as being very convincing.
Heavy metals accumulate in places of larger gravity.
The fraction of gold in the Earth is probably similar to that in asteroids. The problem with gold is not that it is heavy (after all, the uranium on Earth is heavily concentrated in the crust, not the core), but that it is chemically more compatible with molten iron than with molten silicates. When the interior of the earth segregated and the denser molten iron/nickel phase settled to the core, it carried much of the gold (and platinum group elements) with it.
What wealth is just sitting there to be exploited?
This question really floors me. How is it possible to NOT see all the wealth?
Only if government wins over individual liberty will we be denied the wealth out there. The percentage of wealth represented by the Earth approaches zero when compared to the potential wealth of the solar system.
Energy; required for life and to make things happen. Mostly from the sun’s radiation, the Earth receives close to zero percent of it.
Matter; the Earth has about zero percent of that too. Real estate and all the chemicals we exploit industrially here on Earth are abundant in space.
Life; almost 100% on Earth. Over time, this could also approach zero percent once we start living out there.
One day we’ll tell our children that, that little speck in your telescope, the cradle of civilization when humans were young, used to have all the wealth in the solar system.
This question really floors me. How is it possible to NOT see all the wealth?
By noting the stuff costs more to get than it’s worth?
Aluminum used to cost more to get than it was worth. 1, technology marches on, and B, greed is forever. so the question is not whether, but when, the cost curve will cross the benefit curve. Maybe I’m naive, but I’d say that point moved a good bit to the left with last week’s SpaceX launch.
Also… remember Craig Steidle? Whatever happened to him?