Over at Forbes. I haven’t had time to read them, but at least some of the pieces look interesting.
[Update a few minutes later]
Paul Spudis: Space program, or space commerce? Only the latter will get us off the planet permanently. And on a related note, the Chair Force Engineer says from the earth to the moolah.
Well, a fellow traveler has traveled-on:
http://www.latimes.com/news/obituaries/la-me-walter-cronkite18-2009jul18,0,4276121.story
CFE links to an article that states, we should go, “only when it becomes profitable to do so.”
Which got me wondering if they thought about what they were saying or it just sounded nice. No venture starts out profitable with rare exception. Most all start with a capital investment and may afterward have the hope of being profitable. I do agree that without profit it’s not sustainable. Which is why I’d say we’ve been putting the cart before the horse.
Exploration comes first, but it does not require a great deal of scope. Spending too much time in the exploration phase just wastes time and resources.
Building a base is a good stepping stone, to learn by doing. It’s can’t be the goal, because no matter what you sink into a base, it can be abandoned. So again, we should limit time and resources.
We need to realize that learn by doing is unavoidable so we should accept it as part of the plan. Paralysis by analysis needs to be avoided. Suppose Elon’s first three Falcons were perfect. Launch operations still required learn by doing to get to where they are today (and they are not finished learning.)
Space is a desert where nobody lives. But when people start to live in the desert commerce follows as a natural result. Our goal shouldn’t be limited to sustainable. Our goal should be much bigger than that; thriving and growing economic centers that only permanent colonies can provide.
We need to be thinking about what we need to get an independent colony started. Independence is the key because without it you don’t have thriving, growing or sustained. Learn by doing has to be a big part of it. We send what we think a colony needs first, then we send as many people as we can, one way, to get it started. If we don’t, forty years from now we will talk about the base we built and abandoned (or if it still exists never grows but worries about it’s funding from year to year.)