Media Criticism, Popular Culture, Social Commentary, Space, Technology and Society

Where’s My Flying Car?

12 Comments

And what happened to my space colonies?

Yes, it was never a mass movement, and even with the merger of NSI and L-5, I don’t think that NSS has ever had more than a hundred thousand members. I do think, though, that it is sufficiently appealing to a sufficient number of people that when we break out of the NASA paradigm, and the supply actually responds to demand, some people will live in space in the future.

[Evening update]

Clark Lindsey responds to Dwayne Day’s dyspeptic space colony post:

In the 1970s space had become a niche topic little noticed by the general public. Within that niche area one could search around and find a tiny sub-niche dealing with in-space orbital space colonies. Sure, there were the occasional articles and a handful of books about O’Neill space colonies and a small group of people had a high interest in them. However, you could say the same thing about a million other topics as well. Orbital space colonies never came close to being a topic that most people were aware of, much less considered in any thoughtful way.

If in 1980 you asked a randomly selected group of a thousand people what they thought about space, a thousand would say, probably in the first sentence, that space was wildly expensive. If you asked them if they had read an article about space colonies in the past decade, I doubt even fifty would say yes. And most of those fifty would say such colonies might be a great idea but are impractical while space travel is so wildly expensive.

Yes, as is the case of much of space policy, it’s all about information and perspective. (I’ve added “Media Criticism” to the categories for this post, and bumped it…)

12 thoughts on “Where’s My Flying Car?”

  1. “I do think, though, that it is sufficiently appealing to a sufficient number of people …”

    Exactly *what* is appealing though? Space colonies are far enough into the future that anyone can project their own hopes and desires on them. At present they can be all things to all people. The reality will almost certainly be more limited.

  3. “For me, it’s political and economic freedom. I can’t speak for anyone else.”

    Would it be fair to say that if it turned out that space colonies (of whatever sort) did not in fact (for whatever reason) offer these things you wouldn’t be interested in living on a space colony?

  4. Would it be fair to say that if it turned out that space colonies (of whatever sort) did not in fact (for whatever reason) offer these things you wouldn’t be interested in living on a space colony?

    Yes. Just as I am not currently all that excited about living on earth.

  5. Yeah, and where’s my SS2 rocket ride? Weren’t there claims made back in 04 that I supposed to be able to buy one of those for $10k? $50k? $250k? pretty soon. What’s the schedule? I want to use the date to calibrate my calendar.

  6. Yeah, and where’s my SS2 rocket ride? Weren’t there claims made back in 04 that I supposed to be able to buy one of those for $10k?

    Not that I know of. I don’t think anyone was making SS2 predictions in that year.

    $50k? $250k?

    No, it was always $200K, once they started to make actual offers for flights. It hasn’t changed since, as far as I know.

    Perhaps you’re just already, or getting senile? Or you never had a useful memory?

  7. Being a generous soul I wish political and economic freedom for every good person. Being fifty, I realize that there are a lot of no good people that will never let you have it. Space may be for scofflaws.

    I see Elon’s vision of a backup of humanity to be a candle in the wind. I don’t see too many candles and they are all threatening to go out. It is a shame because there are still a lot of good people left.

    Are there enough and do they have time? Where are the rugged liberty loving asteroid miners? No miners… perhaps no colonies expanding into space.

  8. I read O’Neill’s book in the mid-70s when I was a teenager, and it was inspiring.

    It’s pretty frustrating that 30 years later, we don’t seem to be any closer to space colonies.

  10. I think 100000 well-educated people is quite impressive. If 10% of those are willing to spend a significant fraction of their net worth on space colonization, that is some serious money.

    I think people are way too impatient. There has been some significant progress in space technology, even if it does not yet manifest itself in access cost.

    There are a few projects (fusion, space colonization, ai) that might take a century. But so what? Earlier generations spent centuries to build churches.

  11. I was involved for awhile in L5. For me it was one interest among many. I suspect that, for some others, it was an unhealthy obsession that banished independent thought.

    In 1984 I pulled off an event that attracted significant notice within L5 — the first successful New Jersey Spaceday. I led an effort that brought 2000 people to the New Jersey State Museum on a July Saturday. Normal attendance for a July Saturday was 50-75. The museum director called it the best summer event that they had ever had. I have a good bit more in my blog posting Background of an L5 Society Activist. It was at that event that I first heard the idea that space colonies were centuries away. I suspect that is true. My tech background is in software, not hardware, so please take that into account.

    Soon after that event I became L5’s Spaceweek coordinator. In that role I first encountered J. David Baxter — the Utah resident who first proposed Space Day back in 1970 or thereabouts. My goal was to get L5 chapters to organize some sort of public event — a lecture, a party, whatever. His plans involved giant celebrations, parades and a benevolent alien (presumably someone in costume) handing out gifts. I was unfavorably impressed.

    These days I am much more involved with AIAA, doing things like leading Team Maryland for our political activities. My primary personal interest is in management reform — see the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report to find out why.

    Did L5-NSS ever have 100K members? I suspect the grand total was never more than 20K-30K.

  12. This discussion is too old for anyone but Rand to see, but anyway…

    Obviously my point was schedule not price; the price was incidental, the only point being that it was supposed to drop rapidly after the first several flights (thus the multiple guesses). Good debating technique focus on some detail that is obviously irrelevant. That’s sarcasm since I apparently have to spell these things out.

    Virgin Galactic Unveils SpaceShipTwo Interior Concept
    By Tariq Malik
    Staff Writer
    posted: 28 September 2006
    10:37 am ET

    NEW YORK – Future passengers aboard Virgin Galactic spaceliners can look forward to cushioned reclining seats and lots of windows during suborbital flights aboard SpaceShipTwo, a concept interior of which was unveiled by British entrepreneur Sir Richard Branson Thursday.

    “It won’t be much different than this,” Branson told reporters here at Wired Magazine’s NextFest forum. “It’s strange to think that in 12 months we’ll be unveiling the actual plane, and then test flights will commence right after that.”

    Branson’s Virgin Galactic spaceliners are slated to roll out and begin test flights by early 2008 in Mojave, California, with future operational spaceflights to be staged from New Mexico’s Spaceport America beginning in 2009.

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