Michael Totten says to brace for a Hezbollah electoral victory:
Geopolitically though, everything will change. Lebanon’s current “March 14″ government is an ally of the West and of Arab governments other than Syria’s. Prime Minister Fouad Seniora has repeatedly – and I think honestly – stated he wants a renewed armistice agreement with Israel. A “March 8″ government would reverse all those diplomatic efforts and push Lebanon back into, or at the very least toward, the Syria-Iran axis. War prospects with Israel would increase, and any eventual war would almost certainly turn out more destructive than the last one if the people of Lebanon willingly elect a coalition led by a jihadist party vowing war and destruction.
If it happens, this will be a major policy challenge for the new administration.
Team Obama is about to be hit with lots of foreign policy “distractions” this year. Pakistan is descending into civil war. Iran’s government apparently runs out of money later this year (although the recent increases in oil prices may help them some) and their society appears to be decaying. Then Hizbollah may win the elections in Lebanon.
Team Obama is about to have lots of foreign issues on the plate in the near future.