30 thoughts on “What Took Him So Long?”

1. A lot of Democrats switched parties in the ’80s, after ’94, and again after the 2000 election, nearly all becoming Republicans. I don’t think those switches made the GOP stronger.

   This, on the other hand.

2. There is unlikely to be a great deal of impact here, as Specter has been a Democract in all important ways for quite some time. As long as the Maine musheads keep voting they way that they have been, his vote hasn’t been a particularly pivotal one, with a few minor exceptions. More to the point, with the virtual certainty that Al Franken will soon be joining the Senate, Specter’s vote was likely to be a rapidly depreciating asset in any event.

   I suspect that Franken’s resolution of the election and the decision of Toomey to run against him in next year’s primary forced Specter’s hand…

3. I’m curious how much seniority he’ll keep.

4. Another Republican bad apple pruned out. Yet the Democrats hold on to Rangel and Dodd.

5. Hard to believe that there could be less time spent in consideration of a bill before passing it, but this is a step on the way to making it happen…

6. So, like Jeffords and Chafee before him, in order to prove that the critics who called him a squish and closet Democrat are wrong, this guy comes out of the closet and becomes real and open Democrat. Yet, it’s the critics fault, for not keeping a “big tent”.

   Another self-serving hypocrite who belongs in the party of Reid, Pelosi, McDermott, Kerry, Kennedy, Kennedy, Kennedy, Murtha, Leahy and all the rest.

7. I’d say that this is significant in two respects. One is that Specter is likely to vote with Democrats even more often. Jim Jeffords was a very liberal Republican, but after he became independent his voting record moved further to the left. I expect the same to happen with Specter — after all he needs to win a Democratic primary in 2010.

   The other is that it signals the GOP abandonment of the Northeast, along with the Northwest (excepting Alaska). If the rest of the Rust Belt follows, spurred by GOP opposition to auto bailouts for instance, the national-level GOP will be reduced to a regional party.

8. Once Franken is seated I hope the Dems will take the opportunity to eliminate the filibuster (i.e. only require 51 votes to invoke cloture). The filibuster has been increasingly abused by both parties in recent years. The best time to get rid of it is when one party has enough votes to break filibusters under the current rules, so that a sensible reform benefitting majorities of either party is not seen as a power grab.

9. Specter by himself isn’t that big a deal.

   The “far” Left already wants to primary Specter in the 2010 election, within hours of his switch. Look for Specter to drift further left over the next 12 – 18 months.

   But also, Snowe and Collins will now be the ones under pressure to switch parties and Snowe may be more inherently Democratic than Specter.

   = = =

   Specter’s switch might also force resolution of Franken’s being seated and the Sebellius confirmation:

   Harry Reid needs to offer a “deal”

   Seat Al Franken and give him his committee assignments now (and confirm Obama’s appointments), or we’ll block a new organizing resolution that would let you reassign Specter’s previously Republican committee seats to one of your own. Until a new organizing resolution is adopted, Specter’s committee seats (Appropriations, Judiciary, Veterans’ Affairs, Environment & Public Works, Special Aging) are locked in. He’ll be caucusing and (sometimes, anyway) voting as a Democrat, but will be occupying Republican seats.

10. We should have all known the game was up when Bush called himself a compassionate conservative, as if conservatives are not compassionate. So Bush supports Arlen when he has a real conservative challenge. Now that the dems no longer need him to be in the closet he comes out.

    This is why it’s the stupid party.

11. I rather doubt that Specter has any real prospect of moving further to the left than he already is. Jeffords moved left largely because he moved immediately after his election (having run as a ‘centrist Republican’), so his drift was more a matter of revealing his true colors than any question of dynamic principles (he had none). Specter’s voting record has been consistently on the left since his move to the Senate in the 80s, and given the general demographics of PA, it is hard to imagine how he could stay a viable candidate and move leftwards simultaneously.

    Toomey’s decision to challenge Specter in 2010 must be seen as the crucial development here, as Specter was not likely to beat Toomey in a primary, and (unlike Leiberman in CT) would not be able to effectively run in a general election after losing the primary. Specter was faced with the simple choice of moving to the Democrats or ending his career in the Senate, and the results were not difficult to predict.

    I suspect (with no proof) that the timing of this move may be tightly linked to Franken coming close to wrapping up his long struggle with Coleman in MN. If Specter switches now, he gets to use whatever leverage he might have to get better deals for comittee appointments and seniority, leverage that would largely disappear once Franken is seated.

    Finally, Jim’s observation on the ‘decline of the GOP’ strikes me as more ignorant twaddle from a predictable source. Maine’s senators have never been seen as anything other than RINOs, while they might switch parties (or might not…hard to imagine what significant gain they would get from doing so, and they would certainly lose some support among the GOP voters in Maine), this hardly represents the GOP ‘abandoning’ anything. A great many of the GOP losses (many self-inflicted) in the Senate in 2008 were an artifact of the GOP having to defend a larger numer of seats, something that will start to haunt the Dems in 2012 and 2014. With even a minimal level of competence in planning (such as not supporting RINOs such as Chaffee and Specter in primaries), and a return to principles (small govt, fiscal responsibility, etc.), the GOP might be well positioned to pick up seats if things go south for BHO and company…

    But then again, it is way, way too early to effectively evaluate those scenarios, and my crystal ball doesn’t have a very good record of late in any case…

12. It’s an interesting go for broke move on Specter’s part. He’s probably willing to do it because he is 79. He is, like Team Obama and a surprisingly large fraction of the Democratic leadership, betting against all historical odds that the mammoth load of shit they’ve dumped on the American economy’s head this year will, somehow, be completely shaken off in 18 month’s time, that next summer we’ll be back to 6% unemployment, housing prices ticking up nicely, stock market above 12,000 and rising, and everyone happily enjoying his fat 20% raise so much he doesn’t mind his taxes have gone up 22% to pay for his spanking new Obamacare plan.

    Heck, it could happen. We are in utterly uncharted waters here, economically speaking. No one has ever dumped this much debt on the economy in peacetime, nor ever blown up the money supply by 100% or so in 6 months, nor stuck so many newbie government fingers in so many private-sector pies since FDR and his Brain Trust.

    This is like the involuntary global climate experiment that wakes Al Gore up in a cold sweat at nights, only instead of injecting gigatons of CO2 and whatnot into the atmosphere, we’re injecting gigadollars of “stimulus” and “bailout” and “nationalization” gases into our economosphere. Whether we’ll all laugh next year at our silly childish fears, as the ship sails steadily on unperturbed, or be crouched in caves as the hurricanes howl and our 401k’s and kids’ college-tuition funds melt into driblets, no one knows.

    But obviously, if the latter happens — and at this point, the Democratic have pretty much put all of their chips in the pot, so it’s got to be overwhelming victory or utter defeat — Specter will join the Democratic Party in the kind of implosion not seen since the Civil War. As I said, I can see why, at age 79, he might not mind taking the bet. He’s not risking an entire adult career, after all.

13. The fillibuster is fine, just require it actually be done.
    If someone wants to block legislation, they have to take the floor and debate against that bill.

    Then allow a privileged motion to table that bill under fillibuster for other work for an hour and force the fillibuster to return.

    Add in that the completion of debate under extended speech rules doe snot require an immediate vote, but rather within the next scheduled legislative day.

    The power of a fillibuster is it makes your opponents hang around for the moment you run out of breath. If they go to the districts when you quit and you still have a quorum around, you can vote the bill and sink it.

    If the fillibuster lets you drag a bill backwards but doesnt force an immediate vote, it will still work but serves to pin down the blocker as much or more then the majority, and the majority can do their other work waiting to see how persistent the blocker is.

    If Sen Gramm had been forced to take the floor for real fillibusters he wouldn’t have been holding bills all the time.

14. Spectre changing his last name to (D) is no big deal. It’s like Hitler admitting to disliking the Jews.

    Who’s surprised?

    And next…what Jack Lee said!!

15. Now if Specter resigned Tomorrow, from the senate, it would be no better for the GOP, probably worse. Rendell is a Democrat, and would appoint a Democrat, heck he might even appoint specter, who would be up for a special election in 2010. The same year he is up for election.

    The specter amendment changes nothing. The GOP remains in the minority in the senate.

16. The GOP made big time mistakes, McCain and spending to name two. But, it’s hard to beat the other team AND the refs. When you can’t get your messge out, it doesn’t matter what it is.

    http://www.cmpa.com/media_room_4_27_09.htm

17. Can anyone say whether Pennsylvania has one of those same-party laws that other states have, requiring a governor to appoint a new Senator of the same party as the one whose unexpired term is to be completed?

    That might bear on the issue raised by jack lee, above.

18. You may disparage Specter, Collins and Snowe as RINOs, but they vote with the GOP more than anyone on the Dem side of the aisle. Now that Specter isn’t facing Toomey in a GOP primary he is free to move closer to Democratic positions on health care, appointments, etc.

    The only silver lining for the GOP is that if Specter hadn’t switched he’d have lost the 2010 primary to Toomey, who in turn would have lost to a generic Democrat with views to the left of Specter’s.

19. most switchers move hard over. Jeffords became very liberal. Miller, campbell and shelby became very conservative.
    Specter may tack left hard to win the primary.

    if snowe and collins leave, the GOP will become very conservative and very southern. This will complete the alignment of the GOP with the evangelical south and mormon corridor.

20. The only silver lining for the GOP is that if Specter hadn’t switched he’d have lost the 2010 primary to Toomey, who in turn would have lost to a generic Democrat with views to the left of Specter’s.

    You think? On the other hand, with Pennsylvanians wedged in the horrid crack next summer of 7% unemployment, 401k’s still down 30% from last year, 15% and climbing inflation combined with tight credit and a lousy home market, as the US Treasury sucks up capital like Hoover on steroids, plus incipient nausea from listening to President “What Me Worry?” issue yet another sunny cool ‘n’ calm pronouncement about how his latest neato keeno Green 2.0 Investment Public-Private Partnership Superdooper Megabrainiac Plan is going to put A HUNDRED DOLLARS a year in every paycheck — maybe more! Maybe $100.50! — or else make some country somewhere love us more I dunno — and, gritting their teeth in rage, as Pennsylvanians look for someone on whom to vent their hostility…

    Ooh! There’s that Senator Specter, who’s timely betrayal allowed so many Really Stupid Ideas to get rammed down our throats. Hello, Senator. Goodby, Senator.

    And won’t it be nice not to have to hold one’s nose and defend the old smelly Limburger sandwich? Aw, gee, he’s done good work in the past…in the early 70s, I think. Won’t it be fine to see either (1) the Democrats forced to shovel in $millions of Obamadollars to defend someone they don’t even like, who can’t hold onto the seat much longer anyway, or (2) Specter hung out to dry by his new “friends” as they scramble to find some lurking pro-file union Truman blue collar Democrat to be ritually slaughtered at the polls by a yound and relaxed Toomey?

    Yes, yes it will.

    See, you imagine Republicans have to turn into socialist squish snotty coffeehouse Democrats to win. (I’m trying to remember when that was last a winning strategy. 1932, maybe? 1964?) On the other hand, I think all Republicans need to do to win (alas) is allow Democrats to continue to be themselves. It’s pretty much worked since the Civil War, actually. Nothing produces 20 more years of Republican dominance as well as one fired-up Democratic President plus a Congressional majority. No wonder the dumb elephants have gotten so lazy.

21. Carl

    24 hours is a lifetime in politics, I wouldn’t want to predict any race 6 months out. But, it’s always easier to defend an incumbent then to run as a challenger. It’s always easier to fundraise as an incumbent then as a challenger.

    Now, if , you believe it’s best to clear the GOP ranks of ideological waverers, I’d suggest you start a drive to get Snowe and Collins and Graham to switch. That will leave McCain as the last member of the Gang of 14 in the GOP.

22. I feel your pain. Well, not exactly, but I think your feelings are comparable to my own disgust over the judas Lieberman.

23. I think it’s very premature to write off the Republicans in the Northeast and the Rust Belt. First, the Democrats have to survive Obama. Second, for all the talk to the contrary, a lot of people who voted for Obama really don’t have that much in common with the Democrat party. Third, the Republican party can and will change. I don’t mind if the Republicans cease to exist, but it doesn’t seem likely to me.

24. Well, not exactly, but I think your feelings are comparable to my own disgust over the judas Lieberman.

    While I don’t really care about Specter’s party affiliation (anything that undermines the power of the current two party system can’t be all bad), it’s worth noting that Lieberman changed parties (or more accurately ran as an independent but remained in the Democrat party technically) before not after he was elected. And who did Lieberman “betray” again?

    As I see it, the senate primary in Connecticut was subverted by outside ideological forces. Given that Lieberman soundly beat both the Democrat and Republican candidates for his senate seat, it indicates to me that Connecticut voters, the ones who decide whether Lieberman “betrayed” anyone decided that Lieberman was indeed the right choice for the job.

    In comparison, Specter’s change of party has not been approved by voters. He may keep his seat as the result of his party change, but it’s a different situation.

25. Let me echo Carl’s analysis here. Specter hasn’t really been too constrained in his behavior over the last few years, and it is quite frankly difficult to see how much further left he could actually go.

    Jeffords (the poster child for the GOP switcher, apparently) was drifting left pretty much continuously up until the year before his last election campaign as a Republican, then suddenly tacked right in order to get party support in VT. He then switched parties, and moved quickly left to take advantage of his new position. Note that he was the swing vote, and no doubt part of the deal worked out for his switch was his vote on numerous controversial issues. This is very different than the idea that he was suddenly ‘freed’ to move left.

    Specter, in contrast, isn’t a swing vote (certainly no more than he has already been), and given that he is switching before the election, rather than after, is most likely to be more, not less, constrained in what he can do over the next 18 months. Given PAs circumnstances (industrial, coal-producing, blue-collar, and with deep political fault lines between Philly and the more conservative hinterland), I think that Carl’s suggestion that Specter is unlikely to go too far left (if at all) has some substance.

    On a somewhat related note, Leiberman didn’t leave the Democratic party, he was defeated in a primary, and choose to run as an Independent. He now caucuses with the Dems, and in fact has stayed with the part on all issues other than the war. This is hardly similar in any way to Specter or Jeffords, and in fact shows the differences between the characters of those individuals. I may not share many of Leiberman’s views, but I have some respect for the way he has handled his circumstances. On the other hand, I never liked Specter, and am pleased to see him finally depart.

26. Specter hasn’t really been too constrained in his behavior over the last few years…

    Indeed. I’ve seen people talk about this as him “coming out of the closet,” but if so he had a closet like WKRP’s Les Nessman had an office.

27. it is quite frankly difficult to see how much further left [Specter] could actually go.

    His voting record as a Republican was to the right of every Democrat in the Senate (the same was true of Jeffords when he switched). He could turn himself into an Ed Rendell-ish Democrat and have no trouble getting re-elected in PA.

28. This depends upon how you want to define ‘to the right of’…clearly he has some positions (Card Check being the most obvious) that put him to the right (both figuratively and literally) of most (if not all) Democrats, but he has already stated that he has no intention of changing that position. I rather doubt much will change with Specter, and frankly see few places for him to make changes in any long-held positions.

    As for Jeffords, as a swing vote (and no doubt his ‘switch’ involved guarantees of his new positions, something that is far less likely with Specter) it was entirely natural to expect a change. In Specter’s case, why expect much at all?

29. Karl Says:

    “I think it’s very premature to write off the Republicans in the Northeast and the Rust Belt. First, the Democrats have to survive Obama. Second, for all the talk to the contrary, a lot of people who voted for Obama really don’t have that much in common with the Democrat party. Third, the Republican party can and will change.”

    Um Let’s look at the numbers.

    From Virginia to Maine, we have 3 Republican senators sitting.

    We have 3 Republican Governors, Rell-Ct, Carcieri-RI and Symington-VT.

    We have about 12 GOP House members.

    The Maryland state GOP is in total collapse, no statewide officers, disintegration at the state legislature.

    The NY GOP is also a disaster. Their state senate leader lost in a PVI +7 GOP district with a 35,000 GOP registration lead.

    There is some shot at Sen Dodd getting knocked down, but, that’s about it.

    The NRCC and NRSC haven’t recruited any solid candidates and the RGA hasn’t got any bench up there.

    While you look in the south, the Dems have a growing constituency in young people, blacks, hispanics and gays. The GOP is solid in the south but not to the extent the Dems are dominant in the north east.

    So Dems can fundraise down south and raise party activists, but the GOP can’t do much anywhere north of the mason dixon line.

30. The interesting question will be Spectors seniority as a Dem. If nothing changes he’s actually pretty senior. As the Ranking member of Interior approps he has a big influence on the interior bill, and he has the staff and budget of that subcommittee. Same with Judiciary.

    Now Cochran could mess with him on earmarks, adding in and subtracting kind of, but, the senate chairman of approps is a Dem, so, he’s the big dog Inouye.

    Specter may not want anything to change, hes in a good seat right now.

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