Clark Lindsey has some thoughts, in response to a couple of posts over at Personal Spaceflight, on the implications of the economic and finance problems for the industry.
Obviously a wealthier world would be better, but I suspect that it will at worst slow things down. The airlines and air transport, after all, matured a great deal during the Depression.
I wonder whether that is a useful example. The benefits of aviation relative to the status quo ante were very large compared with human spaceflight today.
Actually, a lot of technology improved during the 1930’s. Both airplanes and cars got a lot better. Cars in 1929 still looked with derivatives of the model T. Cars in 1940 looked more like they do today. The DC-3, the first “modern” airplane, came out in the late 30’s.
Recessions and depressions put a lot of pressure on businesses to make products both good and cheap.
Jet engine work also started in the 30s. If something came up which decreased launch costs, it would get a better footing in a depressed market than otherwise.
Notice how Eutelsat is going for a chinese satellite launch, something unthinkable just a couple of years ago.
Periods of rapid die-off are the periods of most rapid evolution.
Actually talented and resourceful people did pretty well in the Depression. 25% unemployment sucks, but bear in mind which 25% were unemployed. Hint: it wasn’t random.
Indeed, arguably a situation like that, with a fierce pit opening underneath a failure to do your best — kind of Brock’s point, although I would suggest a better phrasing would be “periods of intense natural selection” — is one in which the wheat gets ruthlessly winnowed from the chaff.
In periods of extended prosperity, people tend to get lazy, both physically and mentally, take their fortunes for granted, begin to develop grandiose fantasies of utopia, and finally leave the rails of caution and good common sense. Kind of like what just happened, huh? Boo. Silly humans.
When consumption slacks off then the suppliers product cycle time should become more frequent as producers start looking for the next big must have product. All done in the hopes that this may entice greater demand.