Iran will have enough fuel for several Hiroshima-level bombs by the end of the year.
I should note that their ability to put a satellite into space isn’t quite as concerning to me as it has been portrayed by some in the news. Though we had ICBMs before we had launch vehicles, it doesn’t follow that having a launch vehicle implies ICBM capability. It’s actually a lot easier, from a guidance standpoint, to put an object into orbit than it is to hit a target precisely. Also, warhead and entry vehicle technology is a completely different beast than a launcher, so simply having throw capability doesn’t mean that you have all of the pieces in place. In addition, it’s one thing to build a bomb — it’s another to make it small enough to be able to loft it around the world.
Of course, none of this is of much consolation to Israel, because it’s a lot closer, and I would imagine that the Iranians are indifferent to how precisely they can kill hundreds of thousands of Jews.
I would be far more concerned with an orbiting nuke and it’s EMP applications than I would a missile. I would imagine a 10-25 KTon bomb would create a sizeable blackout area. Just think how screwed we would be if just the northeastern seaboard was fried.
Though we had ICBMs before we had launch vehicles, it doesn’t follow that having a launch vehicle implies ICBM capability. It’s actually a lot easier, from a guidance standpoint, to put an object into orbit than it is to hit a target precisely.
On the other hand, even an inaccurate ICBM would allow them to explode a nuclear weapon in space. That would be an extremely potent space weapon.
If Iran took out most of our satellite capacity without taking a single American life, would we then relaliate against a country capable of even an inaccurate nuclear attack? The options are not very pleasant.
From what I’ve been able to read, it appears Iran used the same approach to developing their booster as we did with our first satellite launch* – they took an existing missile and devoted most of the normal warhead mass to an upper stage. The missile they used reportedly has a range of 1200-1500 miles and a one ton warhead. They used all but about 60 pounds of that warhead mass for the upper stage, with the 60 pounds being the satellite. I don’t know if they moved the guidance system to the upper stage or not. It’d certainly make it more accurate but it isn’t absolutely necessary to achieve orbit. A 60 pound orbital capacity is far smaller than any nuclear warhead Iran is likely to be able to make. Until they develop a more powerful booster, there isn’t an immediate concern about them launching an EMP weapon.
Using the same lower stage, they could reduce the payload and add an upper stage for considerably extended range. They’re still a way from having an ICBM capability but it appears they’re working on it.
*Our Jupiter booster was a Redstone missile with two solid fueled upper stages. The guidance system was on the Redstone portion of the booster.
Don’t forget the ChiComs and the Russians. I’m sure they would be more than happy to sell the Mad Mullahs whatever tech they need.
Because we know that those “Mad Mullahs” are so darned crazy that they’re going to start a nuclear war with a country that can *easily* wipe them off the map by lobbing ICBMs at them…I mean really, the whole bed wetting “they’ll sneak nukes in on a boat or something” idea at least has a shred of plausibility.
But hey what do I know, they’re obviously “Mad Mullahs” so anything’s possible.
~Jon
Jonathan Goff:
I think you’re missing kind of the point in trying to make everyone who talks against Iran seem like crazy warmongers. You are probably right in that Iran isn’t likely to start a war against the U.S. anytime soon. However, they’re definitely not against attempting anonymous dirty bombs against Israel (a tactic they tried this summer) or randomly sneaking bombs around and blowing up embassies (which they’ve been doing for years). The main problem with their new found ICBM capability and looming nuclear status is that our very last chance to actually deal with them in a hard way is right now, which also means that the last time we have any sort of real advantage in soft power negotiations is also slipping away.
Jonathan, you underestimate the small players at your peril. Ahmadinejad wants to start a global war. He’s convinced attacking us and/or Israel with nukes will hasten the Mahdi’s return and bring about the Global Islamic Caliphate and Dar al Islam.
I dunno, JP, I’m kind of OK with that. The odds are pretty good that Ahmadickhead’s first warhead will not work as well nor be as well-targeted and timed as he hopes, so its death toll will be horrifying but not city-destroying, let alone nation-destroying.
And then we have a completely free hand. Glass parking lot, here we come! No need to be nice and talk after 3,000 are dead and dozens of city blocks are radioactive ruin. The Shiite theocracy problem will get its Final Solution, and no similar problem will arise for centuries. There are worse trade-offs imaginable.
To be honest, I actually think Ahmadickhead is smart enough to know this. He’s an able judge of men. I think that’s why we get these sloooooow inching toward the precipice semi-public steps whenever he needs to distract the Iranian people from the efficiency with which the theocracy is turning Iran into a Third World economy on a par with Zimbabwe’s.
It would be interesting — I mean, if we had a spare Earth with which to experiment — to call his bluff. Sure, go ahead, build a nuke, whatever, who cares? Yawn. The USSR had far more and we faced their sorry ass down. Remember MAD? We can target downtown Tehran with launch-on-warning as easily as Moscow was. Good luck with your saber rattling, now — and good luck convincing your domestic enemies that putting the country in nuclear crosshairs was a Good Idea.
I believe Ahmadickhead is whacked in the antisocial sense, like Joe Stalin, but he doesn’t actually seem whacked in the suicidal sense. He’s pretty careful to stop just short of the line where he invites massive return hurt, e.g. he captures and parades on TV British but not American sailors in the Gulf, even though the latter are a lot easier to find, and more satisfying to the domestic crazies as well.
I agree, yet again, with Carl. There’s always the possibility of some idiot getting into power who is willing to push the nuclear button while ignoring that Allah has long heavily favored the nations of infidels over the nations of the faithful.
However, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doesn’t strike me as being that idiot.
Instead, I see a more serious problem in that Israel has very limited strategic options available to itself. It’s worth noting that of all the nuclear powers and potential nuclear powers, Israel is probably the most vulnerable due to its small size.
In particular, if a Iranian nuclear attack is mere minutes away, Israel’s retaliation strike capability is very weak. I see Israel’s options as: 1) hope its retaliation capabilities are sufficient perhaps enlarging with more nuclear subs, 2) depend on some other country to provide nuclear retaliation capability, or 3) preemptively strike Iran’s nuclear capabilities with conventional or nuclear weapons.
I think it’s not a big stretch to note that a nuclear preemptive strike by Israel is not a big stretch given the circumstances. If they can’t count on their nuclear capabilities or those of the US (or some other replacement ally), then they’re looking at option 3.
Hmm, so if they get the capability by the end of the year. Then, they mull over their options and further develop their delivery capabilities. Maybe the Mayan calendar and Nostradamus is right and the world is going to end in 2012. I believe Nostradamus predicted that a huge explosion was going to take place in and around the Vatican.
I have seen some ramblings in the past that Israel may in fact be developing, or have developed, submarine launched nuclear weapons FWIW.
Maybe the US should just offer to sell nuclear bombs to Iran and Israel, on a one to one basis. (If we want to hedge our bets a little, we can put locks on them that require you to do an integral, complete a logical syllogism correctly, or eat a piece of bacon first.)
I want MORE firesticks, Kirk. Many more!