What happened to Al Qaeda’s Ramadan offensive?

Most people (and all Democrats) fail to appreciate the fact that al Qaeda was directly responsible for the enormous rise in civilian casualties that occurred in 2006 and that continued until recently. As such, they do not really have a way to conceptualize the enormous drop in casualties that occurred last month and that has been maintained through the first week of this month. Once you understand the role played by al Qaeda, then, if al Qaeda really has been quashed (big “if”), I do not see how civilian casualties will ever again climb to their previous levels. The two main sources of civilian casualties in Iraq — deaths from al Qaeda’s suicide bombers and retaliatory execution-style killings by Shiite militias in Baghdad — are both under control. If al Qaeda can no longer deliberately enrage the Shiite militias by slaughtering hundreds of innocent Shiite civilians at a time, then where are the extra 1000 deaths going to come from this month?

An interesting question. But it does look like Al Qaeda’s attempt at a Tet of their own failed, despite the Dems’ fervent desire for a repeat.

[Update in the evening]

More thoughts from Omar Fadhil, in Iraq.