Looks like we’ll dodge Ingrid, which is falling apart under shear. But this little aside from a much longer tropical blog post by Jeff Masters is a little worrying:

The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models all suggest a tropical depression may form in the Western Caribbean on Wednesday and move northwards into the Gulf of Mexico or over Florida.

I’m going to LA tomorrow, and not coming back until early next Saturday morning. I’d like to know a little more. How long will it take to move north, and how much (if any) will it intensify? Do the models have an opinion about that?

We could use a tropical depression here, and even a tropical storm, to help refill up the lake, which is still four feet less than normal (due to draining it last year as a precaution against a hurricane season that didn’t happen), as we head toward the dry season. But I can do without a major hurricane, particularly if I’m not here to shutter the house.