Yesterday was the statistical peak of hurricane season, and we haven’t even had to consider putting up the shutters yet this year, at least in south Florida. Of course, I’m probably speaking too soon.

[Update mid morning]

Is Humberto about to form? It’s still too far out to worry about it, but this is the first potential storm that I’ve seen this season that any models indicate could eventually target Florida. But it could also head south like Dean and Felix did, or up into the Atlantic and affect no one, as so many storms did last year. Here’s more from Jeff Masters:

I expect this will allow 91L to develop into a tropical depression on Thursday. The HWRF brings it to a Category 3 hurricane by Sunday, at a position near 19N 58W, about 500 miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico. This is too aggressive an intensification rate, but I expect 91L will be at least a strong tropical storm by Sunday. The 06Z run of the GFDL model is more believable, making 91L a 55 mph tropical storm about 800 miles east of Puerto Rico on Sunday. This storm is definitely a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is too early to say if the northern islands are more at risk, as the current model runs are indicating. The system may represent a threat to the U.S. East Coast ten or more days from now, but there is no way to judge the likelihood of this.

I’m going to LA on Sunday for the week, and Patricia will be up in Orlando. It will be just our luck if the hurricane comes while we’re out of town and can’t prepare for it. I may be putting up shutters on Saturday, depending on what the track look like.

And this is a little disturbing:

Wind shear the past 11 days (Figure 3) has been below normal over most of the MDR. These conditions are expected to continue over at least the next two weeks, according to the latest forecast from the GFS model. African dust activity has been quite low the past month, and I don’t see any changes to the general circulation pattern that would change this. Steering current patterns are expected to remain the same as we’ve seen since since late July, with a series of weak troughs and ridges rippling across the Atlantic, and no major troughs or ridges locking into place. This steering pattern favors a near-normal chance of hurricane strikes for the entire Atlantic. Due to the weak nature of the troughs of low pressure expected, we’ll have fewer recurving storms that miss land than normal. Indeed, all but one of the seven named storms we’ve had this year have affected land (Chantal was the exception).

Even though we’re past theoretical peak, it could be a long season.