I don’t think so, despite Derb’s hand wringing. He relies on this overwrought analysis, which doesn’t have that figure anywhere in it that I can see.

The analyst is mixing up oil prices and gas prices in that scare story. But he also completely ignores alternate sources, such as shale and tar sands, which are in huge supply (larger than crude oil reserves) in places like Colorado and Wyoming, and Alberta, and profitable at thirty bucks a barrel. This effectively puts a ceiling on oil prices in the long term, and the longer prices stay where they currently are, the more and faster those sources will be expanding capacity.

I not only don’t think we’ll have a hundred dollars a barrel next November–I don’t think that we’ll ever do so, in inflation-adjusted terms, at least not for any significant (a few weeks at most, in panicked response to some event) period of time.