Alan Marty, an investment consultant speaking at the Space Investment Summit yesterday, drew the comparison of semiconductor fabs right before the boom and the orbital access market. That there is $500 million of government assistance reducing the barrier to entry now for launchers and then for fabs. He said he thought the window for launching an orbital company is open now but will be closing. This suggests RpK and SpaceX will enjoy a long profitable run if they are successful.

Bob Werb, co-founder of the Space Frontier Foundation, said, “The window is opening and will open again and again,” in his remarks at the closing of the event.

I don’t see a big drop in access prices if these are the only entrants. Musk and French will reduce prices enough to shut out more expensive launchers, but then split the market and prices will drop no further. But that high price will continue to attract entrants once the subsidized entrants make good.