Belmont Club and Trent Telenko weigh in.

Me? It depends on how one defines a civil war. Also, there is an implicit assumption that a civil war in Iraq is a disaster for the US (which is why so much of the Bush-hating press wants to play it up). But civil wars can end, and have outcomes, and the outcome of this one certainly has the potential for continuing to achieve our Middle East goals (in this case, providing a stable source of oil to counter the Saudis, the establishment of a base from which to further pressure Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria).

When I hear the whining and the straw men about how Bush “lied” about how easy this would be, I wonder where they were when he was saying shortly after September 11 that this was a struggle that would take decades, and when Rumsfeld was saying that it would be a long, hard slog. I certainly never had any expectations that this would be easy, or happen overnight. In fact, it’s gone about as well as I expected, and it’s certainly gone much better than many of those who opposed it predicted (oil fields on fire, many thousands of innocent casualties, complete anarchy, Iran and/or Syria taking over, casualties from WMD that he didn’t have, etc.).

And sometime, I need to sit down and write up the likely alternate history had we not removed Saddam. That wouldn’t be a pretty picture, either, for the Iraqis, us, or the world. As the general once said, war is a series of shitty choices.

[Update at 10 AM EST]

Gerard Baker has done exactly that.