Snuck It Under The Radar

I get very irritated when people, even intelligent people, who I respect greatly, use the phrases “tax cuts” and “tax-rate cuts” interchangeably, and one of the things that I’d do if I were King would be to outlaw this.

But because so many are unfamiliar with the difference, the administration has managed to pull a fast one on the Beltway. They are going to require an analysis of tax proposals by scoring them dynamically, rather than (absurdly) they’ve done in the past, statically. What does this mean?

In the past, any time the CBO or GAO did an analysis of a proposed change in tax rate changes, they assumed that said rate changes would have no effect on the growth rate of the economy, either in the general economy, or in the specific economic sphere in which the tax change would take place. Anyone familiar with economics knows that such an assumption is…to put it gently…nonsense.

We can’t necessarily know what the effect of a tax rate change will be on an economic sector, but to assume that it will be nil is ridiculous.

So, people who are “scoring” (that is, attempting to estimate what the revenue effects of a proposed tax change will be) will now have a more difficult job–they will have to attempt to estimate what the effect of the tax change will be on the affected economic sectors when coming up with their estimate of revenue change for the federal government.

Will they get it right? Who knows. But at least now, they’ll have to make the attempt, instead of absurdly assuming that the effect is zero. It will also provide one more thing to argue about when we attempt to reduce tax rates, but since it will also have that effect on attempts to increase them, that’s a wash, in my opinion. At least it will force a debate on the subject, and make it a respectable topic of discussion.