We got off very lucky from Katrina down here in south Florida. But the storm is now a category four or five, and headed for the worst possible place–New Orleans, much of which is below sea level. This could be the worst natural disaster since Andrew, and there’s a good chance of it being the worst in US history. I hope that everyone can get out–the odds aren’t very good for anyone who stays. But experience shows that many will, thinking or hoping that it will turn, until it’s too late for them. Brendan Loy is covering it closely, with lots of graphics.

[Update a few minutes later]

Isobars are lines of constant pressure. Check out this forecast of the storm.

[Update at 8 AM EDT]

It just occurs to me that if bin Laden got hold of a nuke, and set it off in New Orleans, it would be a trifle compared to what this storm may be about to do. They’ve been dodging these things for years–Betsy, Camille, Andrew…but their luck may have finally run out.

And this is heading for prime oil-production (and gasoline production) country. Expect a big jump in both oil futures and gas prices tomorrow.

[Update ten minutes later]

I’ve never been to New Orleans, but always meant to. I particularly wanted to see the French Quarter. If the worst happens, I may not ever get the chance, now.

[Update at 8:37 AM EDT]

I’m flying to Los Angeles tomorrow from Fort Lauderdale via Dallas. The route usually goes over the Gulf, coming over land just west of New Orleans, but I suspect that we’ll be flying a lot further to the south.

[Almost 11 AM]

Winds are now at 175 mph, with gusts well over two hundred. A lot of people are going to die, because they started the evacuation too late.